What’s the state of play out there for UK Business

[WaveJumper]

I started this thread this after seeing a thread on my screen this morning where the OBR has handed Rachel Reeves its first damming pre-budget report on the UK economy, which started me thinking.

Where are the threads on business concerns right now i.e. the effects Net Zero are having on business, maybe you think it’s not. Have your energy costs gone through the roof, what changes have you had to make to your business or is it all hunky dory.

What effect has the NI changes made, have you had to let people go, has it stopped you expanding, has it stopped you investing and growing your business. Are you concerned about possible tax changes coming down the road next month, what are you hopping for or perhaps more to the point dreading. What changes have you had to make if any?

And what effect is the new Workers Right bill going to mean to your business.

Again, and I maybe be totally wrong here, but I don’t seem to be seeing the threads on these topics as much as one perhaps would have expected in the current climate.

One for @Ozzy perhaps what is the UKBF stance on these topics and are the UKBF views (if we have any) and voice being heard where it matters

 

[Chris Ashdown]

I started this thread this after seeing a thread on my screen this morning where the OBR has handed Rachel Reeves its first damming pre-budget report on the UK economy, which started me thinking.

Where are the threads on business concerns right now i.e. the effects Net Zero are having on business, maybe you think it’s not. Have your energy costs gone through the roof, what changes have you had to make to your business or is it all hunky dory.

What effect has the NI changes made, have you had to let people go, has it stopped you expanding, has it stopped you investing and growing your business. Are you concerned about possible tax changes coming down the road next month, what are you hopping for or perhaps more to the point dreading. What changes have you had to make if any?

And what effect is the new Workers Right bill going to mean to your business.

Again, and I maybe be totally wrong here, but I don’t seem to be seeing the threads on these topics as much as one perhaps would have expected in the current climate.

One for @Ozzy perhaps what is the UKBF stance on these topics and are the UKBF views (if we have any) and voice being heard where it matters

Lets face facts, nobody gives a damn about small businesses of 1-10 staff they are to hard to analyse, when the government talks of small businesses they start at £ million turnover and larger. under 10 staff and you can rant all you want but no one is really interested

 

[FreddyG]

October is going to be the month that proves all my doom predictions. Gold closed at a new record high and it that ain't enough for you, I don't really know what is! the old saying is "Gold is for war!" and the central banks are piling in on physical gold - and not finding any!

"When all else fails, they take you to war!"

Putin is fighting for his life. His Ukrainian adventure has fallen into dust. The next question is - are those nuclear weapons even serviceable? Or has the Russian military not bothered to refresh the fuel in the rockets and only pretended to do so to be able to trouser the funds?

There is only one way to find out!

SMEs? Who cares? The situation here is about the same as the situation in Russia. Corruption and self-interest are the name of the game! A civil service that puts process and parasitic expansion above true service. A political class that is so under-parr as to be borderline comic. A media that was bought and sold decades ago - and you want to know whether the OBR is to be believed?

Are you F'ing kidding me? This is not a nation led by donkeys. It is a nation led by monkeys!

The ONS reports inflation figures that are pure fiction. The government is run by people at every level with no numerate skills whatsoever. When they speak, we just get to hear platitudes - and you want to know what happened to the effects of net zero on business?

I have a tip for anyone with a sense of fun - paint the words "Net Zero" on some jet fighters or maybe a bridge somewhere where removal of those words would cost millions.

Do you seriously think that the "Net Zero" initiative will eventually become a prohibited activity? Will they imprison Miliband as the leader of a terrorist organization? Go on - take a guess!

You can kill Arab children ad liberatum and even opposing that could end up in prosecution. But impoverish a nation for some whacky ideology and you are good to go! You could become the next energy minister!

The lovely Jane Goodall is sadly dead and every overactive monkey has climbed the greasy pole and is now in political office.

Enjoy!

 

[Mark T Jones]

I generally avoid doom and gloom, but in the world of business finance, the pendulum has swung alarmingly from purpose-led funding to what is euphemistic known as 'fund raising' - ie a question for cash to prop things up.

Not bad in itself, but can be the foundations of a dangerous trend.

 

[WaveJumper]

Several things spring to mind this morning - interesting we are not hearing much on the "business front" the business front must be extremely busy perhaps fire fighting ?

In my own domain whilst the markets are and one would assume in turmoil, blue skies are prevailing perhaps buoyed on mainly the tech sectors out performing, but a whole thread could be written on this topic. The markets are (like myself) waiting for the dramatic fall and pretty sure I have mentioned this before. we are going to see a steady curve going down (many will not even notice) and then it will fall off a cliff. Bond markets are not liking what they see.

And as much as I don't want to agree with some of the sentiments above history has shown when governments get into the state they are currently in the war drums beat very loudly and before you know it things are going to spiral out of control very quickly. Watch for the false flag.

Not particularly related to the business question but we see our own government trying to use the excuse of illegal migration to introduce digital ID. This government and the previous in my book have deliberately rained over policies to destabilise the UK all I am sorry to say to inflict even greater control on the citizens. ID cards come in, oh dear thats not having the effect the thought, the black market has not been stopped, we now need a digitalised currency to stop the swill of cash flowing around..... and then they will have us all, hook line and sinker.

So what's coming first, market crash another recession (personally feel deeper than ever seen before) or is it civil war on our own streets, or are we to be dragged into a world war by our ridiculous politicians.

France, Germany all in crisis, France in particular is basically financially fck and the EU are upset as it's damaging their project, well they not really helped have they.

Anyone with any ounce of sense must realise when you are borrowing money to pay the interest on the money you have already borrowed you are stuffed. Especially when those lending it know you can longer repay it. No ltd company to hide behind here folks they will be coming for us all.

Sitting with my sons and their families last night I sat there wondering what the future holds for my grand children, I am worried and this has left me feeling pretty blue this morning.

I apologise for the rant this morning and as an atonement will get the bucket and sponge out and wash the car.

 

[Chris Ashdown]

Thanks you both FreddyG and WaveJumper you have managed to spoil my day and ruined my last 25 odd years of life left to go into doom and gloom. Please somebody give me some good news for the future otherwise I will dig much further into a depression

 

[WaveJumper]

Sorry Chris

 

[FreddyG]

Thanks you both FreddyG and WaveJumper you have managed to spoil my day and ruined my last 25 odd years of life left to go into doom and gloom.

As Brains said - sorry!

Anyone with any ounce of sense must realise when you are borrowing money to pay the interest on the money you have already borrowed you are stuffed. Especially when those lending it know you can longer repay it. No ltd company to hide behind here folks they will be coming for us all.

Brains is right. That's the reality of where UK Plc is at right now - and the US and France and a few other countries.

Please somebody give me some good news for the future otherwise I will dig much further into a depression

Once we have washed out a parasitic Civil Service, paid off all those debts with devalued pounds and dollars and allowed some or most of the pension funds to either crash or only pay a pension in devalued pounds/dollars/€uros that buy almost nothing - then I see a golden future.

The EU got ahead of itself and will have to reform and stop trying to be a super-state. Russia will become more of a loose confederation of aligned states (which is its natural and stable state anyway). The US will go back to sleep - farming, manufacturing and technology - and stop trying to conquer the world. China will liberalise itself (it is fairly liberal already and social pressures will force further moves in that direction) and China will help to industrialise Africa.

China has been waiting and planning for all these things to happen ever since it got rid of Mao and the Gang of Four. For China, a medium-term plan is for the next 100 years. Long term? Maybe 500, maybe more!

The big unknown is Russia - it is so hopelessly corrupt that creating a single democratic state seems (and probably is) impossible. Putin and his cronies are a busted flush and the Ukrainian escapade is doomed to abject failure. China is obviously going to take back Manchuria and Siberia. That just leaves the option of a looser federation, possibly trying to serve both the EU and the Chinese markets.

But all this upbeat, sunny optimism will only be possible once the markets have cleansed themselves of the current credit/debt bubble. That means eliminating fiat currencies and returning to some sort of gold standard. Fiat currencies are just another type of debt and any real growth and real regaining of prosperity for the working man is only then possible when governments (and the banks) can't print more of the stuff.

The other factor that prevents social and economic progress is offshore banking and here, the United Kingdom is the Godfather that runs that entire system of bogus islands and tax havens. Control of the money never leaves the City - but the City sits there like Jabba the Hutt, pretending that its hands are clean. Considering a great deal of that laundered money is drug money and funds stolen from Russia and Africa, quite the opposite is true!

Tens of millions were poured into the 'Leave' campaign by the likes of Tice and co, because the EU is slowly setting out to throttle the money laundering tax haven game. It is doing this step by step and crime hates having to pay tax!

I cannot see a long and happy life for the banksters in the City! And the inevitable death of fiat tokens will be another nail in their coffin!

What we have - starting this month - is the Great Turning. The restructuring of the world's systems and economy. It begins when gold runs to $4k per ounce, the bought-n-paid-for media will begin to report it and also we shall see the unsustainable share prices for the Mag7 break and the margin calls triggered. Watching that happen will prove highly amusing!

If you strip out the deliberate fluffing out of the statistics, the US employment figures are dire. Take away government jobs (did a hole on the dole!) and part-time nonsense, the US employment is either stagnant or falling. The same applies across Europe.

You never know - we might even get HONESTY in government. When that happens, we really have had The Great Turning!

 

[Mark T Jones]

Thanks you both FreddyG and WaveJumper you have managed to spoil my day and ruined my last 25 odd years of life left to go into doom and gloom. Please somebody give me some good news for the future otherwise I will dig much further into a depression

Tbe saying goes - recessions are for people with no imagination

Ther are always opportunities. We are surrounded by people calling themselves entrepreneurs- this is the time to prove it.

I know how to make money in my business, but have chosen not to. That's how it works

 

[FreddyG]

We are surrounded by people calling themselves entrepreneurs- this is the time to prove it.

You have just entered my private Hall of Fame. A great deal of flapping at the lip seems to go on here!

 

[SillyBill]

Well my energy bill quadrupled in 2022 from c. £40k/year to £160kyear. Its now running about £80k/year. So basically an extra employee equivalent on the books every year, for no return.

In that time Corp tax was also increased by almost a third, basically meaning my business has/had £tens of k LESS per year to either invest back in itself (which is generally where it goes), put into the rainy day fund, or heaven forbid, pay its owners a better return...I know I know, dividend is a dirty word.

Other stealth taxes, such as plastic packaging tax and now the EPR is taking a further wedge of cash every year and meanwhile the government gets to pretend we're lightly taxed in Britain compared to "international peers". We have one of the longest and most insanely designed tax codes globally for a reason...to hide the true amount of tax we pay. It'd be simpler if they could afford to drop the ruse, but they can't, and some of us at least know it. NI tax was also another 5 figure jump in tax for our business.

Wages have been increasing not far off 10% per year on our shopfloor for the past 3-4 years where inflation has left rip and the NMW has increased do dramatically, and its very difficult to pass those onto customers who are struggling to pay their bills = further pressure.

We still make a healthy profit but given most SME's operate close to the line, if we're noticing the deleterious business enviroment then its a safe predicator to know the economy will be approaching an edge, if not already.

I wouldn't like to be starting out all over now, I don't think its nostalgic to say Britain is looking shabby, and operating shabbily. Many, not all, but many, businesses feel overtaxed while noting services are in the gutter at the same time. I'm paying more than I can ever recall paying so why is everything outside the factory gates so absymally broken - it feels its not just money that will wake Britain out of this decline.

 

[JEREMY HAWKE]

As always the extra costs are passed onto the customer
I assume that everyone else would be doing the same fueling inflation

 

[WaveJumper]

@SillyBill thank you for the insight, glad you are managing to prevail.

The energy issue is a big problem talking to my son yesterday, he was telling me about one of his clients in the automotive paint sector his current electric bills are crippling the business even though the guy's running the paint ovens on gas apparently he's very close now to the point of giving up.

One only has to open their eyes and look around to see the decline, went to the local tip yesterday which is situated at the far end of an industrial park I saw so many units up for rent you could take your pick, never been like that before.

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

@SillyBill thank you for the insight, glad you are managing to prevail.

The energy issue is a big problem talking to my son yesterday, he was telling me about one of his clients in the automotive paint sector his current electric bills are crippling the business even though the guy's running the paint ovens on gas apparently he's very close now to the point of giving up.

One only has to open their eyes and look around to see the decline, went to the local tip yesterday which is situated at the far end of an industrial park I saw so many units up for rent you could take your pick, never been like that before.

Maybe the stupidly high rental prices will come down a bit, so young entrepreneurs can have a go? Maybe even rate reductions.... no wait, I'm dreaming!

Property of all types in this country is so overvalued it's unreal.

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

You never know - we might even get HONESTY in government. When that happens, we really have had The Great Turning!

.... no wait, I'm dreaming!

Confirmed!

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

Personally we are experiencing a slight uptick in enquiries- that said, I operate in a rich area in the South of England and I'd expect thsi area to be amongst the last to slow down. That's if we get a 'slow down'. Hitting the buffers at cruising speed will be a better anology I fear.

Personally I've spent the last few years preparing for a recession. I've made some bad calls (shares sold way below what I thought would be peak), some good calls (buy physical gold early) and some which are too early to call but worth it for peace of mind (fix mortgage at 4.5% for ten years and set up overpayment to clear it in ten). As a couple, my wife and I have decided to stay put in the tiny cottage we inhabit; we've looked at a couple of 'upgrades' but the juice simply isn't worth the squeeze. The extra effort and stress required to service another £250k worth of debt for a slight increase in living standards (a slightly larger cottage not on the main road) is not in the least appealing currently.

I've spent possibly too much on equipment for my business, but I'm down to my last £50k of finance and zero plans to take on more. I also have zero plans to take on staff save for self employed as and when- the high cost of employment coupled with the low ability of most potential staff (even at reasonable money!) has killed that for me. Not enough margin in it to be worth the stress.

So that means it's down to me personally to undertake the myriad of specialist jobs we do for a good rate, with self employed help (currently costing £220 a day). I hope that I've positioned myself well enough that even in a depression I can weather the storm (with a baby on the way!). I'm well aware that I've painted myself into a corner as a very diverse yet very skilled in multiple disciplines tradesman/machine hirer, which of course makes it very difficult to duplicate yourself. I can put machines out with or without drivers for general hire but it's a low return for a lot of stress and will get lower as the recession bites. I'd hoped that a lot of our conservation grant funded work would prove to be recession proof, but one of the first things to go with the Labour government was, interestingly, a lot of the budget my clients depend upon. Hopefully other commercial things we do like the repair work for property management companies and factories will keep things going when the inevitable happens and domestic work falls off a cliff.

When I sit down and think about it, even I can't believe the immense range of different work we do. Hopefully I will keep enjoying it, as I think it's the only way I will emerge from the coming recession unscathed. The saving grace is that it's 90% within 15miles miles of my base- I can't imagaine anything worse than having to drive two hours each day for work. I stopped the other day in the village shop that I pass by on the way to a regular job and there was a fella in there from a traffic light firm looking for a garage that as far as I am aware doesn't exist locally. He lived in Essex- two and a half hours away. Shit like that is mental- its a totally unsustainable use of finite resources such as oil, sending a bloke in a 3.5t truck over a hundred miles when there's a dozen firms locally who could have done the job.

 

[Mark T Jones]

A summary of 5 existing customer catch up calls last month:

1. Restaurant, opening new sites - 'it's tough, but we are getting hold of mostly-fitted premises and quality used equipment at rock bottom prices'. A great example of using the opportunity, but not good for me!

2. Supplies facilities to the film industry - 'It's been a hideous couple of years (due to the script-writers' strike) - we've cut right back, but are recovering and will be needing you in the next few months'.

3. Small chain of themed restaurants- 'We're struggling to reach 10% net - historically 25% was normal. We're getting by, but only spending if absolutely necessary '

4. Ambitious roll-out of serviced offices. 'We're concentrating on our existing 3 units. All other plans are on hold for this year at least'.

5. Top end hotels. 'We've going great guns - building a new hotel - will definitely calling you when it nears completion'

Beyond the individual, each of those has knock-on implications for suppliers, customers, staff etc.

 

[WaveJumper]

Big thanks to all those contributions so far.

Hotels is an interesting one I took the wife away for her birthday couple of weekends ago, went to Gloucester an area we once resided. My first hotel although excepting my booking for two nights when the confirmation came through was actually for only one night.

On phoning the hotel "oh sorry" fully booked for the weekend can only do the Friday night. No good for me need two nights min, big shame as it was a hotel we had used a great deal in the past & loved, so it was back to the internet @ drawing board for me.

Ended up at Hilton just outside Tewksbury, Hilton Puckrup Hall. A nice couple of nights and the point of this story here is, no weddings going on there and yet hotel was as busy as hell.

Tewksbury was pretty quiet (only saw one empty unit on main high street) but it's the tail end on the season I guess. Gloucester City Centre on the other hand was packed to the rafters, and a trip down to the docks was just as busy especially the new "designer village" shopping centre. (highly recommend a visit)

Another point to this little story, it would seem the hotel game are doing ok (certainly at the higher end) but it reminded me of the company move to Gloucester, at the time it was a real financial shock the country was in the grips of a recession house prices in Hertfordshire had taken a massive dive (people on our development were literally posting keys through letter boxes and walking away interest rates at 17.5%) it turned out people in Gloucester had never herd of a recession. made buying a house very interesting.

I have a distinct feeling as this year closes and another begins the pain is going to be felt at all levels right across the country, I hope I am wrong but I am also not that optimistic at the moment

Have a great weekend one and all

 

[Mark T Jones]

Big thanks to all those contributions so far.

Hotels is an interesting one I took the wife away for her birthday couple of weekends ago, went to Gloucester an area we once resided. My first hotel although excepting my booking for two nights when the confirmation came through was actually for only one night.

On phoning the hotel "oh sorry" fully booked for the weekend can only do the Friday night. No good for me need two nights min, big shame as it was a hotel we had used a great deal in the past & loved, so it was back to the internet @ drawing board for me.

Ended up at Hilton just outside Tewksbury, Hilton Puckrup Hall. A nice couple of nights and the point of this story here is, no weddings going on there and yet hotel was as busy as hell.

Tewksbury was pretty quiet (only saw one empty unit on main high street) but it's the tail end on the season I guess. Gloucester City Centre on the other hand was packed to the rafters, and a trip down to the docks was just as busy especially the new "designer village" shopping centre. (highly recommend a visit)

Another point to this little story, it would seem the hotel game are doing ok (certainly at the higher end) but it reminded me of the company move to Gloucester, at the time it was a real financial shock the country was in the grips of a recession house prices in Hertfordshire had taken a massive dive (people on our development were literally posting keys through letter boxes and walking away interest rates at 17.5%) it turned out people in Gloucester had never herd of a recession. made buying a house very interesting.

I have a distinct feeling as this year closes and another begins the pain is going to be felt at all levels right across the country, I hope I am wrong but I am also not that optimistic at the moment

Have a great weekend one and all

We were in Tewkesbury last weekend. Whilst we were delighted at the number of quirky, independent shops, the locals were moaning that you can't buy anything useful.

There were a couple of great old-school pubs, which were clearly popular.

The hotel sector is less troubled/troublesome than pubs and restaurants.

Better margins and less reliant on spontaneous footfall- as you say, the premium end is pretty resilient. Like they say, in a downturn the place to be is premium or discount, not middle-market

 

[WaveJumper]

We were in Tewkesbury last weekend. Whilst we were delighted at the number of quirky, independent shops, the locals were moaning that you can't buy anything useful.

There were a couple of great old-school pubs, which were clearly popular.

The hotel sector is less troubled/troublesome than pubs and restaurants.

Better margins and less reliant on spontaneous footfall- as you say, the premium end is pretty resilient. Like they say, in a downturn the place to be is premium or discount, not middle-market

Also on the downside I have to say their market looked a bit sad in the back car park only about 6 stalls.

 

[pentel]

I saw so many units up for rent you could take your pick, never been like that before.

Same here, and even places for sale which has rarely happened in the past.