UK's furlough scheme closes Today

[WaveJumper]

Well, it’s been with us since March 2020 paying the wages of nearly 12 million workers apparently it has still been supporting 1.6m workers since the end of July are we now going to see a rush of companies closing their doors as we lead up to the end of the year or do we think growth is going to surge and save the day. The latter seems difficult to see as supply chain issues persist and show no signs of getting any better in the near term and we also have inflation knocking on the door too. Good or tough times ahead.

 

[Ozzy]

It’s my view that one part of the furlough scheme was outsourcing the benefits system to business during the pandemic. This distorted the true unemployment figures. Many businesses will now fold and many redundancies, but the economy does appear to be bouncing back better than I expected to see. So if that stacks up as true then the impact on unemployed may be reduced, but nonetheless the unemployment figures for October are going to be significant.

 

[WaveJumper]

Yes I agree there is a bounce but the fact is it is coming from a very low place, I think the supply issues are going to continue and put the dampers on growth this is not just the supply issues in getting goods around the UK but the likes of China obviously a hug supplier of manufactured goods and has a lots of problems internally. Inflation is going to be the big killer not just here but around the world and I just wonder how long governments can hold off before the need to increase interest rates.

 

[WaveJumper]

Quite a lot of stats here from the BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54601117

 

[Andy Harris]

I have access to the data of an insolvency business that gets website traffic from people in business who have concerns about their business finances.

The numbers are massive (over 9,000 clearly worried business people in the past two weeks - a marked increase on previous figures).

There is zero doubt in my mind (based on that data) that we're going to see substantial closures and pain.

 

[Ryan Paul]

Surely the majority of places had reopened. If you're still on furlough

I have access to the data of an insolvency business that gets website traffic from people in business who have concerns about their business finances.

The numbers are massive (over 9,000 clearly worried business people in the past two weeks - a marked increase on previous figures).

There is zero doubt in my mind (based on that data) that we're going to see substantial closures and pain.

In what sector(s)?

 

[Paul Norman]

There will be redundancies, and there will be business closures.

But, at the same time, the scheme has to end eventually. There are also, we are told, significant staff shortages in certain areas.

It will take time for the market to sort that out. Years, in fact, for people to get retrained, and also for people offering the other jobs to coax people into taking those careers.

 

[Ozzy]

But, at the same time, the scheme has to end eventually.

I agree it did need to end, and in doing so should then paint a more accurate picture of the lay of the land. The furlough scheme was a great lifeline but we do need to know what the state of the nation really is now to build back up from.

 

[Paul Norman]

I agree it did need to end, and in doing so should then paint a more accurate picture of the lay of the land. The furlough scheme was a great lifeline but we do need to know what the state of the nation really is now to build back up from.

Yes. And future interventions need now to be aimed at the rebuild, and at quickening the changes, rather than (understandably), plugging the leak.

 

[Andy Harris]

Surely the majority of places had reopened. If you're still on furlough


In what sector(s)?

It's very broad and also unknown (only certain numbers of companies can be identified - others could be company people at home or untrackable) ... but all the data relates to 'company people' (based on the search types - e.g. 'personal liability if unable to repay bounceback loan' and 'employee rights when shutting down company').

 

[Mr D]

There will be redundancies, and there will be business closures.

But, at the same time, the scheme has to end eventually. There are also, we are told, significant staff shortages in certain areas.

It will take time for the market to sort that out. Years, in fact, for people to get retrained, and also for people offering the other jobs to coax people into taking those careers.

True.
Whenever it ends there was going to be businesses going under and job losses.
Hopefully a lot less than if had never brought the scheme in or had closed it in summer 2020.

Best we can hope for is some of those newly unemployed take jobs outside what they were doing and fill some of the vacancies we have.