The Live 2021 Budget Thread

Ozzy

Founder of UKBF
UKBF Staff
  • Business Listing
    For those of you who will be watching the budget announcement at lunchtime today, to hear anything that hasn't already been *cough* leaked *cough* to the press do share your thoughts here.

    If I've got this right, you can watch the live stream when it happens here;
    https://parliamentlive.tv/event/index/a491e75e-ca0c-493c-8d5f-355dfd2adcf3

    If I've got that wrong it will also be live streaming on BBC, Twitter and others.

    My colleague @JCBrown will be posting some of the main headlines here as he hears them, and it would be good to gather some of your feedback on the effects you feel these announcements could have on yours and/or UK business in general #WeNeedThumbsUpEmoji
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
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    I'm interested to hear any bombshells they might drop seen as a few things have conveniently been leaked to gauge public reaction.

    The media hype surrounding this day has been like a world cup final!

    Hopefully, the day doesn't let us down!
     
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    Ozzy

    Founder of UKBF
    UKBF Staff
  • Business Listing
    Hopefully, the day doesn't let us down!
    You seem more excited than most :D

    Predictions, purely thinking of business here and ignoring anything domestic;
    • Lots of cheers and jostling and a big thing made about funding being allocated to the Levelling Up agenda to boost the economies outside of London (relating to the public consultation questions we asked here on UKBF a little while back to give the Government input into whatever will be announced later).
    • He'll brush over the reducing of tax surcharge on banks, but sticking with the increase in corporation tax across business, but some form of aspiration will be announced to reduce tax over a 4 or 5 year period as the cost of Covid support packages are recovered.
    • A bit of a panic about inflation and interest rate rises.
    What I hope to hear is some form of investment put into recovering the billions lots due to BBL and Furough fraud, but probably won't.
     
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    What I hope to hear is some form of investment put into recovering the billions lots due to BBL and Furough fraud, but probably won't.

    I wonder what the political temerature is on that - kind of hot & cold.

    I can say for sure that they are investing big money in BBL / CBILS recovery - including retaining some top accountancy firms; but it seems to be more covert than political flag-waving.
     
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    Ozzy

    Founder of UKBF
    UKBF Staff
  • Business Listing
    but it seems to be more covert than political flag-waving.
    My suspicion is that they are going after the opportunist fraudsters, the long hanging fruit, but cannot make too much noise about it as questions would be asked "what about the organised fraud", the big ticket stuff. The opportunistic fraudsters will recover some, what hasn't been blown on holidays and unrecoverable purchases, but I suspect will end up just being a drop in the ocean.

    HMRC estimate Furlough fraud to have been about £3.5bn
    Various estimated on the BBL fraud have that valued at around £27bn
    I doubt we'll see 10% of that recovered, probably not even 5%.

    They'd be seen as going after the small time criminals and letting the big times get away with it, and that isn't good for their image. We'll just see a fee press releases when they make a million or so recovery here or there. The big money is already out of the country.

    Anyway, my first shareholder has arrived for my board meeting so I'm off to answer questions about my own budget now :eek:
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
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    NON-BUSINESS UPDATE

    According to Nick Eardley (Political correspondent), Sources confirm changes to universal credit expected.

    Senior figures expect the chancellor to allow in-work claimants to keep more of the money they earn, by changing the taper rate.

    Under the current taper rate, claimants currently lose 63p in benefits for every extra pound they earn.

    The Treasury has refused to comment.

    There is also speculation there may be other changes linked to universal credit, after lobbying by Tory MPs and others.

    The decision to cut the £20-a-week universal credit increase, brought in to help low income families through the pandemic, was met with widespread criticism when it was withdrawn at the beginning of this month.
     
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    IanSuth

    Free Member
    Apr 1, 2021
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    My nurse wife is taxing enough already thank you

    A bigger issue would appear to be that the promised public sector payrises next year will have to come from departmental budgets and not any extra cash. So along with the employers NIC rise large workforce departments such as Health & Defence are going to have to find a magic money tree
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
    109
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    Sunak tells cabinet Budget will deliver 'stronger economy'

    Rishi Sunak has been giving a very upbeat message to his ministerial colleagues this morning, telling them his Budget "will deliver a stronger economy for the British people".

    Downing Street says he briefed fellow cabinet ministers that the levelling-up agenda is the "golden thread" running through his approach.
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
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    What do we know so far?
    • The National Living Wage for people aged 23 and over will rise to £9.50 an hour, while a pay freeze on public sector wages will be lifted.
    • The taper rate on universal credit is also expected to be cut, though government has ruled out a cut in VAT on energy bills.
    • There will also be an allocation of £1.8bn for building around 160,000 new homes on brownfield sites in England.
     
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    IanSuth

    Free Member
    Apr 1, 2021
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    • There will also be an allocation of £1.8bn for building around 160,000 new homes on brownfield sites in England.

    Do we know if this is new money or existing and what is the £1.8bn for;- subsidies to buyers, clean up costs, bribes to developers to put some "affordable housing" in larger developments, money to councils for infrastructure to support the housing ? £11.2k per house is not a lot to do much with when the average newbuild house price was £323,367 in June https://propertyindustryeye.com/average-new-build-price-premium-is-29/
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
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    Rishi Sunak's big day starts with a rollocking from the Deputy Speaker, Dame Eleanor Laing.

    You have announced too much of it already, she tells him - you should save it for MPs first.

    She then adds she looks forward to hearing "the remainder of your announcements". Ouch.
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
    109
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    Sunak: A stronger economy for the people

    The chancellor opens his big speech by acknowledging the pre-briefing to the media before the Budget, saying he has listened "very carefully" to the Speaker's concerns.

    After sending his best wishes to Sir Keir Starmer, he then begins his speech properly, saying: "Employment is up, investment is growing, public services are improving, public finances are stabilising and wages are rising."

    Sunak promises his Budget will deliver a "stronger economy for the British people" and leave them in "no doubt" the government's plan is working.

    Along with broad pledges on a high skilled economy and world class public services, he also makes his first mention of the phrase "levelling up", saying it is the "birth right of every child in an independent and prosperous United Kingdom" to succeed.
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
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    'Budget a foundation for future'

    Sunak says the Budget does "not draw a line under Covid" and warns of challenging months ahead.

    But he says it does begin the work of preparing for a new economy after the pandemic.

    The chancellor says it will be "an economy fit for a new age of optimism - where the only limit to our potential is the effort we are prepared to put in and the sacrifices we are prepared to make".

    He adds: "That is the stronger economy of the future. And this Budget is the foundation."
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
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    Government 'willing to act' on inflation

    Next Sunak addresses rising inflation, saying it hit 3.1% and is likely to rise further.

    He puts it down to global factors of the world opening up after the pandemic and demands for goods increasing.

    "But where the government can ease these pressures, we will act," he says, announcing new funding to improve lorry park facilities.

    "We’ve already suspended the HGV levy until August and I can do more today extending it for a further year until 2023, and freezing Vehicle Excise Duty for heavy goods vehicles."

    He reveals he has written to the governor of the Bank of England today "to reaffirm their remit to achieve low and stable inflation".

    Sunak adds: "People should be reassured [as] they have a strong track record in doing so.

    "I understand people are concerned about global inflation – but they have a government here at home ready and willing to act."
     
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    JCBrown

    Community Manager
    UKBF Staff
    Jul 9, 2021
    109
    18
    Sunak positive on unemployment

    Sunak has moved on to Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecasts about the state of the economy.

    He says the OBR expects unemployment to peak at 5.2% - which means "over two million fewer people out of work than previously feared".

    That's "because of the actions we took to support our economy" during the pandemic he says.

    Ministers have been "more successful than previously feared in preventing the long-term economic damage of Covid" he adds.
     
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