Spring Statement on Wednesday.
- Thread starter Ozzy
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I have seen a draft of his proposed speech, it’s quite short and too the point.
“We are truly in a huge mess and I haven’t a clue what to do.”
Still, nice to see a bit of honesty coming back into politics.
“We are truly in a huge mess and I haven’t a clue what to do.”
Still, nice to see a bit of honesty coming back into politics.
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T
The Byre
QT (Quantitative Tightening) and a reduction in government spending in wasteful areas such as numbers of civil servants and silly schemes that go nowhere and cost billions.
Additional changes I would hope for -
- A tax code restricted to 300 pages of A4 12-point Times New Roman.
- Take the NHS away from the inefficient clammy hands of government.
- Social insurance mandatory to pay for old-age care and infirmity, etc.
- Tidal power to be licensed to private companies.
- Expand oil and gas production.
- Propper apprenticeship and master schemes and trade guilds to oversee them.
- Free education for propper subjects. Make 'em bleed for PPE and media studies and all that rot.
- Online degrees for working adults to be offered by all accredited universities.
- Vocational degrees to be restricted in number and subject to strict quality control.
- Property ownership to be restricted to either UK nationals or those who have lived here for five years.
Nothing other than more fiddling at the edges and tinkering with pointless schemes and more confusing and meaningless tax changes.
Notes -
1. Works in other countries.
2. See most European countries, as well as some US states and cities.
3. See France and Germany.
4. Starting with the Severn Estuary.
5. If not now, then when?
6. As in Germany and many other civilised countries.
7. We desperately need many rare skills such as mathematicians, engineers, doctors.
8. Available from the LSE, the OU, but competition is needed!
9. BIG subject - unis are ripping off young kids by their thousands and it has to stop!
10. Works perfectly in Denmark and stops over-rich undesirables from buying up land wholesale.
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The Byre
I would ADD 5p to the fuel duty and take VAT off red Diesel to give farmers a break. If people want to ponce about in large SUVs that consume twice as much fuel as a regular car, that's their look-out! There is no excuse for ANY car, no matter how large, to consume over 50mpg (4.7 litres per100km) once it is warmed up.
If car consumes more than that in the real world (and not on a test rig) it is just sloppy and bad engineering!
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Whilst I'm inclined to agree on principle, the key targets of reducing tax would be hauliers and construction companies (Who have the double-whammy of new rules on red).
That said, the Chealsea Tractor brigade are a handy voting demographic.
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Other than that, the Chancellor is totally between a rock and a hard place.
The economy, though, is facing some quite damaging inflation. I suspect double figures, maybe high teens. Maybe even more - some projections are for food prices to double.
That should be the main focus, therefore - to find some means of steadying that. But as most of the courses are already hard wired into the system, and the world is facing a fairly big war, I am right out of ideas too.
The economy, though, is facing some quite damaging inflation. I suspect double figures, maybe high teens. Maybe even more - some projections are for food prices to double.
That should be the main focus, therefore - to find some means of steadying that. But as most of the courses are already hard wired into the system, and the world is facing a fairly big war, I am right out of ideas too.
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Biggest problem is the ones he can help aren't the ones who are being hit most.
He can help those on UC by increasing the uplift and benefits
Trouble with that though is the people most affected by what's happening at the moment ate the ones just above the UC thresholds.
People on UC are used to hardships, used to using foodbanks, charity shops etc.
The ones just above UC thresholds are in for the biggest shock
He can help those on UC by increasing the uplift and benefits
Trouble with that though is the people most affected by what's happening at the moment ate the ones just above the UC thresholds.
People on UC are used to hardships, used to using foodbanks, charity shops etc.
The ones just above UC thresholds are in for the biggest shock
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The Byre
It's a bit like asking a Highlander how to get to Drumnadrochit - "Weel, I would'ne start from here!"
Most of this inflation is affecting everything and that is caused by all that helicopter money - AKA QE. It is mostly of his own making, aided and abetted by banks both central and retail that used QE to line their own pockets! As he and other chancellors and senior civil servants remained, each and every one of them, blissfully free of the slightest cognisance of what was going on right under their collective noses, they all looked on with benign smiles as the banks expanded their scope and power by printing extra money that nobody needed but they wanted.
Unfortunately, Sunak studied PPE, i.e. he had one year of economics - so about the same as doing an Economics A-Level. Obviously, he didn't get as far as monetary economics, otherwise he would have known that MV=PY=GDP(nominal).
If you increase M but V (velocity) and Y (sum of all goods and services) remain the same, then P MUST go up. It is a mathematical certainty!
He is now reaping the fruits of his own willingness to please, combined with his having been economic with those much-needed commodities of knowledge and intellect.
The same applies to every chancellor and prime minister since 2007.
Too late to go quetching about it now though! I and other economists have been warning anyone who is prepared to listen (i.e. not politicians trying to get past the next election) since heaven-knows-when! This very forum is witness to my dire warnings for quite some time now!
Successive governments have been blaming CDOs, then it was Europe, then it was Brexit, then it was C19 lockdowns and now it's them poor Ukrainians and the Evil One (He who Must Not Be Named!) How about looking in the bloody mirror for a change?
- It is politicians who turned a blind eye when the Evil One invaded Georgia and Crimea.
- It is politicians who allowed the central banks to bale-out the CDO dealers.
- It is politicians who ignored the trillions of QE quietly indulged in by central banks in 2019. (We still do not know the real reasons for that incident!)
- It is politicians who allowed central banks to indulge in more QE in 2020 and 2021.
- It is politicians who have been cutting back on defense spending.
- It is politicians who wasted vast sums on failed IT systems, stupid buildings for themselves and failed initiatives and pointless schemes like Track-n-Trace - and a thousand others.
- It is politicians who destroyed the economy with lockdowns that did nothing to stop the spread of C19.
- It is politicians who blocked Ukraine from joining the EU and NATO.
- It is politicians who are destroying economies everywhere with stupid, ill-conceived and half-baked green initiatives.
- It is politicians who refuse to believe simple physical facts like that there aren't enough battery minerals on Planet Earth, including all the ones that we think should be there but we have not found yet, to provide just North America with electric cars, never mind all the rest!
And it could get a whole lot bigger if we do not nip it in the bud right now. Gradualism is always the rocky pathway to hell!
I'm not. It's every man for himself. Hunker down and wait for all the shouting to stop and then venture out to see what's left. (Well, I never said it's going to be easy, now did I?)
Sprott Investments (commodities company) CEO Rick Rule once said "2022 is going to be a terrible year to be a wage earner, but it will be a great year to be Rick Rule!"
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So you don't think the war and restriction of Russian energy supplies has anything to do with it? Not to mention global supply chain disruptions.
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The Byre
Good question! Some effect - but not the real underlying reasons for all the inflation that was already happening (8% in the US officially and probably much more than that if we measure honestly) and is baked into the system.
In 2021, manufacturing costs rose by 13.5% and farm inputs rose by 22%. Nothing to do with Russia! Oil was already nearly $100 a barrel by the end of the year. Nothing to do with Russia. A great deal to do with greedy banks and stupid governments - and the normal price cycles for commodities.
One funky graph -
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As the @The Byre highlights we now have the perfect storm we might get a headline grabbing 5p of the price of fuel - really!! and when people are struggling to heat their homes or feed the kids this is all deeply depressing people are going to be burning through savings (if they have any) in the coming months with no sign of respite on the horizon. I have heard some very sad stories this weekend the people I was talking too (who I would term “middle class”) are finding extremely hard to coupe and just don’t see any future.
My own 90-year-old mother for the first time I have ever known seems to have lost all her fight and spark. The Politian’s have let this country down badly and, in my view, should hang their collective heads in shame.
I think on Wednesday the country is going to be sadly disappointed.
My own 90-year-old mother for the first time I have ever known seems to have lost all her fight and spark. The Politian’s have let this country down badly and, in my view, should hang their collective heads in shame.
I think on Wednesday the country is going to be sadly disappointed.
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Farmers reclaim the VAT, so that would make no difference whatesoever to their bottom line.
As an aside, from April 1st, use of rebated red diesel will be tightened further. Only farmers, fisheries and forestry (along with golf courses and travelling fun fairs!!) will be allowed to use it. Everything else, such as quarries, building work and landscaping will have to use full tax (you know, 'road' tax
) white diesel. This will push costs up considerably, on top of all other price pressures.
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I was looking at the new rules for pleasure craft yesterday had to laugh if you have just one tank all good until you move off the dock ?Farmers reclaim the VAT, so that would make no difference whatesoever to their bottom line.
As an aside, from April 1st, use of rebated red diesel will be tightened further. Only farmers, fisheries and forestry (along with golf courses and travelling fun fairs!!) will be allowed to use it. Everything else, such as quarries, building work and landscaping will have to use full tax (you know, 'road' tax
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Don't expect much. He's the worst chancellor since Brown.
He should be, as a minimum:
I guess we have to pay for Rishi's magic money tree that he kept shaking throughout the pandemic.
He should be, as a minimum:
- Reversing the triple lock decision (a manifesto promise)
- Scrapping the NI increase across the board.
- Increase the personal allowance.
- Lowering VAT and duty on fuel by more than 5p.
- Scrapping green levy's on energy bills.
- Increase the additional rate to 50%.
- Tackling taxation on large tech companies.
I guess we have to pay for Rishi's magic money tree that he kept shaking throughout the pandemic.
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This, I'm dubious about. It goes directly to councils, who have the discretion to spend it how they see fit. Not convinced they are particularly efficient.
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I'm not aware of any schemes in Leeds that seem to use it, and the council website doesn't say anything.
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The Byre
I told you all that it would be just fiddling at the edges - putting 50 liters into a car will now be £3 cheaper. Wow! Don't all shout at once!
When one MP shouted "Is that it?" he summed it up perfectly. A total non-event, except that it is a devastating failure by omission. So many opportunities missed, so many chances for improvement not taken. The political equivalent of Polaroid not exploiting digital photography.
When one MP shouted "Is that it?" he summed it up perfectly. A total non-event, except that it is a devastating failure by omission. So many opportunities missed, so many chances for improvement not taken. The political equivalent of Polaroid not exploiting digital photography.
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I am aware that at least one North east counsil used part of it to help people who had council tax arrears, by giving them a year's free council tax. Hardly helps pay for food and heating as most people would just not pay it because they can't.
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