President Donald Trump

Booboo691

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He seems be stirring things up over there and Elon Musk right with him.

What are your thoughts on the likely effects over here in U.K. and Europe?

(When I saw Baron Trump at the inauguration I couldn’t decide whether he should have been stroking a furry white cat or have been sporting a small black tash under his nose)
 

Karimbo

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    trump looks like he's massively changed compared to previous presidency.

    Do you remember the constant firings over disagreements, every week a person was fired and a new person put in position.

    He used to spend all his time on twitter. Now he's barely saying anything, not even his children are wit hhim at the oval office, musk has replaced his kids and it was quite interesting how musks son said to trump "you are not the president, go away", and saying "sush" to trump.

    Trump during previous presidency would have cut him off from the white house long time ago.
     
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    Paul Norman

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    I suspect President Musk will let him make the coffee and do a bit of light filing.

    His anti Europe stance will not be good for Europe, of course. But it is not an entirely new thing, although the impact of tarrifs could be a bit pricey.

    For the UK? I am not sure so much. I guess the UK will continue to pretty much carry out the foreign policy wishes of the Whitehouse, but, again, that is not new. So the impact might not be so massive.
     
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    thetiger2015

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    I want to know what hold this Putin Character has over him something is not right
    He appears to be putting "Russia First"

    It's more than just Trump though, it's a direction of travel that most americans have voted to embrace. Trump/Musk are just the figureheads for the movement.

    Isoliationism, where the US looks after their own interests and backs out of other areas. They'll dabble in the Middle East/Africa still, as there's oil/gas/minerals to extract but Europe is of no interest to the US, we don't really provide anything for them.

    The US doesn't see Russia as a threat anymore. The US is too powerful to be defeated, impossible on their own turf, so why spend billions of dollars defending against an enemy that is too weak to knock you out?

    The threat for the US is China. It will soon be the number one military and financial power in the world and, intelligently, they don't waste money dropping bombs on people, they just buy the land from under them. It's cheaper. Expect the US to do something similar, like they've suggested in the Middle East for example?

    Oh and they've already admitted they want to do a deal with Russia over the minerals in Ukraine, hence the nice language and warm tone. They don't want to walk away with Russia grabbing all the gems!
     
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    I want to know what hold this Putin Character has over him something is not right
    He appears to be putting "Russia First"

    He'd essentially told Russia that he wouldn't stand in their way last time he was in power.

    There is an element of division, stopping Russia from cozying up to China.

    He also values his reputation as a peace-maker rather than a warmonger. Even if it means Ukraine surrendering a wodge of territory to a warmonger
     
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    thetiger2015

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    He'd essentially told Russia that he wouldn't stand in their way last time he was in power.

    He also gave European leaders plenty of notice that he expected much higher defence spending within NATO. Which was promptly ignored. Now we're back to what he said a few years ago, spend more or the umbrella gets thrown in the bin.

    I'm not exactly a fan of the guy but, he literally said he would do this the first time round and nobody listened.
     
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    Trump needs to change his name to Neville Chamberlain. The last time a country was carved up without their opinion was by Chamberlain and Hitler resulting in "Peace in our Time". Look how long that lasted and how many millions of lives it cost.

    I see he is blaming Ukraine for the war- How would he like Mexico to reclaim Texas, California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming ceded to USA by the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo ending the Mexican-American War (1846-1848
     
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    Trump needs to change his name to Neville Chamberlain. The last time a country was carved up without their opinion was by Chamberlain and Hitler resulting in "Peace in our Time". Look how long that lasted and how many millions of lives it cost.

    I see he is blaming Ukraine for the war- How would he like Mexico to reclaim Texas, California, Nevada, Utah, New Mexico, most of Arizona and Colorado, parts of Oklahoma, Kansas, and Wyoming ceded to USA by the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo ending the Mexican-American War (1846-1848
    I think the fundamental difference is that Chamerlain was genuine & well intentioned - if naive - in his belief that he had secured peace, whereas Trump is happy with a stalemate as long as he can access resources and keep Chine & Russia from joining forces.
     
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    thetiger2015

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    It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

    Can Trump really force Ukraine to surrender? Will he put US troops on the ground, as 'Peacekeepers' to protect the land the Russians have already taken, a kind of buffer zone?

    If they don't surrender, where does that leave US international influence?

    He's appeasing the Russians because he thinks he's negotiating and can grab 50% of the resources, while Russia take the rest. I don't think the Russians are interested in this, they believe they can have 100% of the resources, it will just take a bit longer. The US has no military capability in Ukraine, Turkey won't let them in to the Black Sea either, so the US is negotiating from a very weak position.
     
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    FreddyG

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    There is an element of division, stopping Russia from cozying up to China.
    China wants Outer Manchuria back. It is vast and contains huge natural resources that China needs for growth. They are de facto buying it back by opening companies there, but the Chinese government has its return as a long-term goal. And they think of a hundred years as being the mid-term future!

    As for Trump - most countries erect very effective trade barriers to US companies. Mostly with things like cars and food, but also many other things and he sees that as a problem to be solved. The EU has the most effective barriers, simply through health and safety, as well as all sorts of confusing (to the Americans) standards and market expectations.

    He wants a level playing field where uneconomical and poorly built cars and food containing carcinogenic chemicals can be sold freely and instructions and manuals are only written in English. For some obscure reason, people don't want that and the regulations forbid it.
     
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    FreddyG

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    Trump progress report -

    Intelligence continues to flow, albeit more discreetly.
    No significant arms shipments were planned and scheduled shipments have been completed.
    Trarrifs against Canada and Mexico cancelled.
    Gold reserves have neither been audited nor revalued.
    DOGE has not come up with anything we didn't know already.

    So, apart from a great deal of posturing, he has done nothing!

    So just another blowhard and a rather vulgar politician. It took about 140 days for the wheels of The Establishment to lock down the Reagan administration and prevent them from doing anything. It looks like they've had this collection of noisy buffoonery under adult control from day one!
     
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    Three decades ago, the newly independent country of Ukraine was briefly the third-largest nuclear power in the world.

    Ukraine made the decision to completely denuclearize.

    In exchange, the U.S., the U.K. and Russia would guarantee Ukraine's security in a 1994 agreement known as the Budapest Memorandum.

    So much for that guarantee. Can/Should we trust the USA again???
     
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    Justin Smith

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    The American president is no longer the "leader of the free world".
    A "Leader of the free world" would be expected to stand up for freedom and oppose dictatorship.
    Someone who supports dictators and is cutting back on support for democratic countries invaded by dictatorships does not come within that definition.
    Trump is primarily bothered about himself, and, some way behind, his own country.
    Now many people would say it's fair enough for him to be primarily, possibly even completely, bothered about just his own country, but that would, by definition, also mean he is not the leader of the free world.

    On the subject of Trump, I think we should cancel his invitation for a second state visit.
    Quite apart from his support of evil dictator Putin and his rudeness to hero Zelensky, he has not only imposed swingeing tariffs on Canada but is talking about making it a US state. Let us remind ourselves that King Charles is head of state of Canada. Thus we should not be creeping around that excuse for a statesman, whatever the cost may be.

    https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/no-2nd-state-visit-for-donald-trump

    The above has 187k signatures at the moment
     
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    I have come to the conclusion that Trump is a Putin Soy Boy Cuck who would be devastated if the video was leaked🤣

    It's a fact that he has a long association with the KGB through his Casinos.

    The question is has he been brainwashed, has he been bought or is he being blackmailed?
     
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    FreddyG

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    The question is has he been brainwashed, has he been bought or is he being blackmailed?
    To which the answer is "Yes!"

    When recruiting an 'asset' (as the movies and all the 'Walters' like to call them nowadays) you give them some moral justification, you give them some money and you use that to blackmail them if they look as if they might be about to back out of the deal.

    Let's say that you want to recruit a junior officer in the military. He has a minor weakness, let's say he's bisexual - so you get some footage of him (drunk) kissing a good-looking guy who is working for you. Great! That's your 'in' and you are going to use that. That could have been on R&R in Bangkok or in a gay bar in London - anything will do!

    Years pass and he gets to be a lieutenant colonel. Great! That means he is at battalion commander level and gets to read all the latest security and policy briefings. Now you get another (or even the same) guy or girl to meet our target. A few drinky-poos and some mild flirting and our 'agent' brings the conversation around to all the wind-swept and groovey things he has done over the years.

    Guys like to talk. They are notoriously gabby and like to "give it large" when the old dangly bits start to stir. Our agent asks for a favour - some totally unclassified document like a workshop manual to a gearbox for a Bedforsd three-tonner. Rubbish you could find on the internet.

    He hands it over - and because he is stupid, he hands over a military copy that has the word 'RESTRICTED' top and bottom of every page. He has now broken several laws and you have filmed him doing it (and being paid for it each time!) You also have film of him fornacating and that could damage him privately!

    Now you escalate all the way up to handing over stuff with the magic words 'TOP SECRET' at the top and bottom. That's real stuff with a distribution list with his stupid name on it! And every one of his 'indiscretions' filmed and documented! And of course, every payment directly traceable back to you, should you wish to make them public.

    The fish is completely hooked.

    Trump? Maybe. Who knows? I would test him.

    Give the idiot some massive intel via GCHQ. A huge bomb planted in the sewers under St. Peterberg, due to go off next Sunday. A second front to be opened up on the other side of Crimea. A secret undercover army to attack an ammo-dump on a given date. Whatever! Something that will get a massive reaction from the other side.

    If they react, you have a known traitor and they are incredibly valuable. A useful idiot that gives you a feedback loop to the enemy! That's when the real fun begins!
     
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    Justin Smith

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    I think we should allow the visit so that the UK public can have the opportunity to show how little respect there is for him.


    187k is less than 0.3% of the population so petitions are useless.
    There are too many people that just aren't interested.
    This is why dinosaurs like Trump get elected in the first place.
    I have to say I am a bit surprised so few have signed it.
     
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    JEREMY HAWKE

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    My favourite markets commentator David Buick said on the radio this morning that there is early evidence that ol Elons businesses are showing signs of lower sales as the customers dislike his shenanigans

    Gota say I say exactly what I want on UKBF and have only see good growth 👍
     
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    My favourite markets commentator David Buick said on the radio this morning that there is early evidence that ol Elons businesses are showing signs of lower sales as the customers dislike his shenanigans

    Gota say I say exactly what I want on UKBF and have only see good growth 👍

    Shares are falling, European sales are plummeting. They may never recover, as China & S Korea have caught up and overtaken their tech.

    Musk, to me is far more scary than Trump since he brings intelligence to insanity.
     
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    thetiger2015

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    Trump is such a lier, according to him the Greenlanders wanted to join the USA.
    Unfortunately the Pro-Trump party Qulleq gained just 1% of the recent vote coming a distant last.

    Same as saying they've wasted 300 billion on Ukraine, when they haven't.

    He also said other countries will pay the new tariffs from April. They won't.

    Non of it has to be true, because most people only read a headline and he knows how to get those big, shouty headlines in every newspaper and social media platform in the world. He's a great salesman.

    This is 'The Art of the Deal' - attack, attack, attack and eventually, the other side will just collapse and give in to Mr Shouty.
     
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    Lucan Unlordly

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    He also said other countries will pay the new tariffs from April. They won't.
    Fancy a bet on that?;)

    This is 'The Art of the Deal' - attack, attack, attack and eventually, the other side will just collapse and give in to Mr Shouty.
    He's ball juggling, spinning plates to broaden people's concerns before focusing and doing deals on the things he genuinely believes should happen.

    With today's news about Chinese owned British Steel looking to shut down two blast furnaces and the governments offer of £500m support (they wanted £1b) not acceptable, you have to say that bringing things back in house ain't such a bad idea is it?
     
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    thetiger2015

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    Fancy a bet on that?;)


    He's ball juggling, spinning plates to broaden people's concerns before focusing and doing deals on the things he genuinely believes should happen.

    With today's news about Chinese owned British Steel looking to shut down two blast furnaces and the governments offer of £500m support (they wanted £1b) not acceptable, you have to say that bringing things back in house ain't such a bad idea is it?

    Well...the other countries don't pay the tariffs do they? Or is Trump correct, the UK will pay 25% on all vehicles sold to the US? Is China paying the tariffs now, on steel?

    I agree that the UK should have its own, separate manufacturing base and be energy independent. Same as Europe should have a solid and well armed military to protect supply routes and undersea cables, which it does not. However, I don't think that's what they're angling at. They believe the US has a big enough internal market to effectively shut off importing and exporting, by way of tariff. They're making imports really expensive, they want to price imports out of the US and focus on selling within the US and probably Canada too.

    I think they do want to control mineral exports, hence the Greenland/Ukraine situations but they know they can't compete with China on mass production and super cheap steel, it would take decades. So, they'll just replace them with a more expensive US internal version and block the imports by pricing them away.

    Minerals though, different thing, they can control that and they know the EU has sod all to negotiate with. We don't have any, we need them, US, China and Russia know we need them, just like we need oil and energy. Our obsession with being 'clean' has kneecapped us and is all complete nonsense, because we import the clean bits and leave the dirty bits in another country, so we can pretend that our gas/oil/plastic/metal is carbon and clean enough to eat.

    I disagree with the direction the US is going but I also disagree with the UK and the lacklustre effort from the rest of the EU, with exception to France. They've been sounding the alarm for years, about energy dependency and importing goods that we can easily make locally but outsource, to be 'clean'.
     
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    Trump wants to control Ukraine's mineral wealth giving America unprecidented control over their resources including vetoing sales to other countries including the EU.
    Add to that his "control" over Greenland would give him incredible resource base. I was pleased to hear they were unable to persuade Greenlanders to attend and meet Vance's wife - even went door to door. Maybe Trump will get the message but he will simply offer a bribe to all to get them to change their minds.
    We are all looking down on a full loo pan.
     
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    Trump has placed a tarriff on two islands in the Antarctic that only has penguins on them - not sure what they expect from there. Also tarriff on the Island of Diago Garcia - only American and British service men are there.
    I did not realise until recently that the American president was effectively a dictator and does not have to get the agreement of a parliament and House of Lords equivalent. Am I wrong?
     
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    thetiger2015

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    Trump has placed a tarriff on two islands in the Antarctic that only has penguins on them - not sure what they expect from there. Also tarriff on the Island of Diago Garcia - only American and British service men are there.
    I did not realise until recently that the American president was effectively a dictator and does not have to get the agreement of a parliament and House of Lords equivalent. Am I wrong?

    They do have checks and balances, like any democracy. In the US they have Legislative, Executive and Judicial branches of government and neither has control of the other. Laws are passed after readings in the senate - like the House of Lords, the upper house. It takes lot of time but it's designed to make sure everyone reads the paperwork before voting, same as here.

    However, I think they're trying to do the same thing that was tried over here a few years ago - proroguing of parliament, when they tried to get laws through without any scrutiny by putting everyone on holiday basically and just approving it all in their absence.

    In the US, it seems like they're circumventing the checks using executive orders, shutting out the 3 branches entirely and using direct orders from the president. There's not much that can be done I think, because the current administration doesn't seem to follow the current laws and doesn't believe they're true, believing only they're own EOs are the law. They're essentially just creating their own legal system and ignoring the current one. The only way to stop it, is to remove the administration but that could cause a civil war...so they're sitting on their hands.
     
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    FreddyG

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    Donald Trump will be eating some Humble Pie pretty soon!

    Donald Trump thinks that because the Hollywood film industry is leaving Hollywood and going elsewhere and foreign-made movies are increasing their market share. Therefore Hollywood is losing business to foreign made productions.

    That is a classic case of a False Syllogism. The facts tell a very different story!

    According to data from 'FilmLA': In 1997, 66% of major studio feature films were shot in California. By 2016, that number had fallen to only about 39%. Today, that is just 30% of films released in the US are shot in California.

    But most of that loss went to other U.S. states.

    Georgia is the biggest winner. It offers up to 30% tax credits and is now one of the top filming locations in the world. Major productions filmed in Georgia include The Walking Dead, Stranger Things, Black Panther.

    New Mexico offers producers a 25-35% tax credit and Netflix and NBC-Universal have both invested in long-term infrastructure, including large studio complexes there. And the desert and Western visuals are just stunning!

    Louisiana was a leader during the early 2010s "runaway production" era and still offers generous tax incentives and has a trained film workforce.

    New York may be high cost, but grants huge tax breaks (30% and more) and has a very strong film-based labour pool. And of course, NY-City is a visual magnet for storytelling.

    Texas, North Carolina, and Illinois still offer competitive packages, though some tax programs have been cut back in recent years.

    California is losing market share because of the cost of doing business is high (labour, location permits, insurance) union labour is exclusive in California (no union ticket, no work) so wages and other benefits are more expensive. Housing and logistics costs are also far higher. (California does offer its own tax incentive program, but it is very limited.)

    International factors are real, but they are not the whole story or even the most important part of the story! Not every facility in Hollywood is the best for every occasion or has the best skill set for every task.

    So what will the film industry do now? Just what will the Disneys and Universals of the this world do now?

    The answer is obvious - they will put projects on 'hold'. They will press the 'Pause' button until there is clarity. Because almost all major films are international to some extent, the executive suit will have no choice.

    Because Trump likes to shoot his mouth off, the damage will be world-wide. And that includes the US. The president of the United States has decided to damage and further isolate the US film industry.
     
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    FreddyG

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    @FreddyG You have inside knowledge of the entertainment industry here. What is the UK film industry saying about how the tariffs will affect it? They seem to have been fairly quiet about the 100% tariff.
    I was watching the film "Their Darkest Hour" and in that film, a journalist in the Strangers' Gallery was given the line "He has weaponised the English language!"

    The real quote was “He mobilized the English language and sent it into battle,” and was spoken by US journalist Edward R. Murrow on CBS about Churchill's famous speech of fighting on the beaches.

    In a similar vein, we might say that Donald Trump has mobilized stupidity and sent it into battle!

    Trump shoots his mouth off without being impeded by thinking. He hears something like, "Graduates from film schools can't find jobs!" and combines that with a fall in the number of productions in Hollywood, jumping to conclusions that are conveniently divorced from reality.

    One short glimpse at any major US-financed film tells anyone able to read a Wikipedia entry that nearly ALL films are international. Even the so-called US financing is often from Sony Pictures. Today's world is international - a reality that stupid people find difficult to grasp.

    The UK film industry is, hmmm, how can I put this? Shaking its head. So far, nothing has happened. No projects have been cancelled because nobody has been able to see how you can put a tariff on a film directed by a Canadian, starring a Canadian, an American and a Spanish girl, filmed by a Brit in Hungary, with music by a German and a Brit, produced by Brits in Hollywood and distributed by Japaese and American companies. (Blade Runner 2049).

    And then there is the counter-tariff problem - US films MUST have foreign revenues to break even! There is a long and often endless series of revenue tails that, if they were to be subject to tariffs, could vanish -
    1. First comes the cinema release.
    2. Blu-ray release and pay-per-view streaming.
    3. General pay-per-channel streaming.
    4. Free-to-air broadcaster one-off packages.
    5. Free-to-air broadcaster two-year, two-transmission packages.
    Right now, the film industry has a very cosy and secure set of intertwined revenue streams for and from all territories. You mess that up and the US film industry is stone dead.
     
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    Gecko001

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    I met someone from America recently. Trump was not mentioned, but he said that the USA, like all great empires, such as the Roman Empire, and he mentioned several others empires through history whose names I cannot remember, fail from within. Are we witnessing this now? He might have been talking about either Trump or Biden, or both to be honest.
     
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