Preparing for the worst

[Andre78]

Hello all. Brainstorming session for those interested.

I'm estimating that in my particular industry, which is mainly fencing, within approx 3 - 10 weeks there will be close to total exhaustion of materials nationwide. Unknown how long these periods will be.

Aside from the obvious, downscaling, laying off staff, selling surplus vehicles and machinery etc. I'd be interested to hear of any ideas that one could consider to limit the fallout.

For example is there any type of government assistance for this type of thing? Freezing of dept due to factors completely outside your control etc. etc.

Thanks in advance.

 

[AllUpHere]

I'd say buy up all the materials you can now, or diversify the business until things improve. What type of fencing do you do? Domestic fencing could get tricky soon, but if you do largely agricultural or equestrian there are ways round it.

 

[Andre78]

I'd say buy up all the materials you can now, or diversify the business until things improve. What type of fencing do you do? Domestic fencing could get tricky soon, but if you do largely agricultural or equestrian there are ways round it.

Domestic mainly and some tree work. Can't go into agricultural, not geared for it.

I have a meeting with a couple of chaps from Colourfence tomorrow as we are going to become recommended installers for them, which is metal fencing and the like so that's a needed bonus. How much work it will bring in I do not know.

 

[WaveJumper]

What about composite fencing and gates they seem all the rage around here. I know things must be getting bad as I paid a visit to Wickes on BH Monday (sadly) the whole section covering sand and cement was complexity empty and know idea when delivery coming in

 

[The Byre]

I keep hearing all kinds of stories about shortages of materials within all trades - but I have just bought 250m of 120cm fencing and 120 3" 180cm poles. Either I bought all that stuff just in time - or we are seeing contractors hoarding materials prior to a shortage.

The further south you go, the worse it gets. Plenty of cement in Scotlandshire. Kent and Essex are now cement-free zones! Fence posts seem to be in a similar state.

The funny thing is, there is still framing timber to be had, so why not buy up some of that, treat it, put points on the end and call them fence posts?

 

[Financial-Modeller]

Struggling to comprehend how the country is running out of wooden fencing, when something like 15% of the UK is covered in trees!

 

[Andre78]

I keep hearing all kinds of stories about shortages of materials within all trades - but I have just bought 250m of 120cm fencing and 120 3" 180cm poles. Either I bought all that stuff just in time - or we are seeing contractors hoarding materials prior to a shortage.

The further south you go, the worse it gets. Plenty of cement in Scotlandshire. Kent and Essex are now cement-free zones! Fence posts seem to be in a similar state.

The funny thing is, there is still framing timber to be had, so why not buy up some of that, treat it, put points on the end and call them fence posts?

You need a pressure treatment facility...

 

[WaveJumper]

They are the wrong type of tree you need the flat slatted type as apposed to the tall round variety. I don't want to cause a panic but my neighbour has just told me he is struggling to obtain the right colour fence paint now.

 

[Andre78]

Struggling to comprehend how the country is running out of wooden fencing, when something like 15% of the UK is covered in trees!

Mostly the woodland is protected. Also, due to enviromentalists in the U.S they have drasticly reduced felling so they have just done a deal with Scandinavian countries offering them so much per cubic meter they will be stopping selling to us for previous agreed prices. Possibly stopping altogether unless an expensive deal can be made.

HS2 railway is eating cement. Covid lockdown has caused a spike in demand for household works etc etc.

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

Struggling to comprehend how the country is running out of wooden fencing, when something like 15% of the UK is covered in trees!

No infrastructure here for processing it as fence posts, and Scandinavian timber is thought to be much better due to their cold winters. They are so geared up it's unreal- a forklift lifts a whole lorry worth of logs at once and sticks it in the infeed of the mill, and bundles of sawn timber comes out the other end, all by computer control, getting the maximum product from every log. No wonder it's so much cheaper to import.

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

Mostly the woodland is protected. .

That's not true at all mate. Most timber in the UK is commercial woodland, but there just isn't the infrastructure to process it into fence posts.

 

[WaveJumper]

I have builders in the family and on a serious note there appears to be a real second wave of shortages some jobs they cannot complete others they cannot even start and the situation does not seem to be improving and from them and even my son's own business the, and I use the term "general public' seem to be blissfully unaware of whats going on and in most cases think they are just making excuses.

 

[Andre78]

That's not true at all mate. Most timber in the UK is commercial woodland, but there just isn't the infrastructure to process it into fence posts.

I didn't know that. That's bloody ridiculous.

 

[The Byre]

If you think that the prices will be rising, you buy the timber standing and either leave it standing until the time is right, or you process it and only sell some - drip-feeding the market, so to speak.

Timber prices for framing timber have quadrupled in the US - the big wholesalers on the other hand have mountains of the stuff. A guy I know who runs a building supplies shop in Oregon was told by his wholesaler that they were struggling to get supplies, so he drove over 100 miles to look at their depot, only to see unbelievable amounts of processed timber - all optioned by house building companies and exporters in batches of about $1m. (That was six months ago - I have no idea what the situation is now.)

I didn't know that. That's bloody ridiculous.

Lots of rumours going around the trades as to why all this is happening - including that the Norwegians are buying up the trees and selling the timber back at very high prices. I paid £6 a post last week (ex. VAT) and the retail is £11.

 

[IanSuth]

Some of the standing timber is protected by economics

A certain Tory peer who is/was editor of the ecologist magazine had to sell his Devon pad to fund his divorce. I saw the sale particulars as part of his estate had previously been owned by my inlaws prior to retirement (he wanted to be lord of the manor so bought up all the old farms and cottages which had belonged to it)

The last couple of pages were all the particulars on the indemnity's a purchaser had to agree to with regard to paying back grants and tax breaks he had obtained through planting trees on grassland which had taken hundreds of years to reclaim from the moor. (1 field he put in trees and pigs even though it was on a slope - the following spring there was a pile of mud with twigs in it at the bottom of the hill and literally bare rock at the top)

The total indemnity value was well north of £10m !! So you wont see those trees cut

 

[AllUpHere]

If you think that the prices will be rising, you buy the timber standing and either leave it standing until the time is right, or you process it and only sell some - drip-feeding the market, so to speak.

Timber prices for framing timber have quadrupled in the US - the big wholesalers on the other hand have mountains of the stuff. A guy I know who runs a building supplies shop in Oregon was told by his wholesaler that they were struggling to get supplies, so he drove over 100 miles to look at their depot, only to see unbelievable amounts of processed timber - all optioned by house building companies and exporters in batches of about $1m. (That was six months ago - I have no idea what the situation is now.)


Lots of rumours going around the trades as to why all this is happening - including that the Norwegians are buying up the trees and selling the timber back at very high prices. I paid £6 a post last week (ex. VAT) and the retail is £11.

I don't know who told you the prices, but my list shows 6ft 3" to 4"s at £3.70 plus Vat retail. Even machined rounds aren't close to the prices you quote. I think you may have been given the 'please go away' prices.

 

[AstEver]

I'd say buy up all the materials you can now, or diversify the business until things improve.

@Andres78
And if you manage to stock up materials you may start planning on which customers to prioritise and even which you can win from competitors.

 

[patientlady]

You mentioned tree work. The chap that cuts mine said he is booked for the next three months and beyond, although he is a qualified arborist.

 

[Andre78]

@Andres78
And if you manage to stock up materials you may start planning on which customers to prioritise and even which you can win from competitors.

Just this week spent 4k on materials which 2/3 filled our yard space. It'll take less than 2 weeks to eat through them. Not an option at the moment.

 

[Andre78]

You mentioned tree work. The chap that cuts mine said he is booked for the next three months and beyond, although he is a qualified arborist.

Fully qualified and insured. But I am admin now 90% so... Also we are specifically geared for fencing and I market fairly aggressively in that direction of course. Furthermore as 98% of our business is fencing/ gates so are our customers and our portfolio reflects that.

However, yes, it is a possible option but I'd be back to working 100 hour week and being up a tree with a chainsaw in a permanently knackered condition.

 

[Interestedobserver]

Last year when there was similar shortage and/or the supply of fencing was getting expensive a guy I know started buying the components and making his own fences to install

Edit - or is that what you already do and now the materials aren't even available to make the fence panels?

 

[AllUpHere]

Last year when there was similar shortage and/or the fencing was getting expensive a guy I know started buying the components and making his own fences to install

What do you mean the components? The shortage is stuff like posts, feather edge, gravel board, rails and basically the components of a fence (as well as cement and ballast).

 

[Mr D]

Struggling to comprehend how the country is running out of wooden fencing, when something like 15% of the UK is covered in trees!

Its getting the trees which are moist, rounded things sticking in the ground to an item suitable to fit lengthways against a garden fence is quite a process.
Not least logging operations on forest may be restricted to certain areas.

 

[BusterBloodvessel]

Can't help you but I feel your pain. We have been having crisis meetings all this week at work due to shortages of board material for our carton boxes. This week 4 days running, the lead time increased by a week each day - an already long lead time increased a month in the space of 4 days. Big boys are buying up material plus people are switching from corrugated material to other options and the whole things a mess.

Our print supplier is currently quoting December before they can get stock in for any orders placed this week! That's before their print & glue process so we have an 8 month lead time on orders placed today - insane!

 

[Lucan Unlordly]

In an Essex B&Q at the weekend - no Paving Slabs. Plenty of Barbecues.
Builder/neighbour has been doing fencing as he cannot start other jobs due to lack of materials.

Some Fencing facts...
A lot of the timber for fence panels used to come from Portugal, faster growing, cheaper and crap. Still available but I doubt very much if it's kept pace with home grown product?

You could, with enough passion and ability to knuckle down, become a Professor in Saw technology!

Arboriculturist's (tree cutters) can suffer from 'Saw Arse' a medical condition caused by sap covered tree clippings falling down the back of their trousers.

Pre 2004 Fence Posts were treated with a product that contained Arsenic, which when it dried out often left a salty coating which Horses loved.

 

[The Byre]

I don't know who told you the prices, but my list shows 6ft 3" to 4"s at £3.70 plus Vat retail.

Tapered 180cm - 75mm posts treated

Wickes - £11 each
B&Q no tapered stock, c.a. £12 untapered.
Jewson no tapered stock, c.a. £12 untapered.
Travis Perkins no tapered stock, c.a. £12 untapered.

 

[AllUpHere]

Tapered 180cm - 75mm posts treated

Wickes - £11 each
B&Q no tapered stock, c.a. £12 untapered.
Jewson no tapered stock, c.a. £12 untapered.
Travis Perkins no tapered stock, c.a. £12 untapered.

Haha, I mean proper retail (from a fencing supplier) not the big sheds. I'm surprised Wickes and B and Q even sell those.

 

[The Byre]

Then show us the website - I'd love to see 6' posts at £3.70 each!

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

Then show us the website - I'd love to see 6' posts at £3.70 each!

£3.42 ex VAT last pallet I bought. March. 6', 3-4" tops.

 

[AllUpHere]

Then show us the website - I'd love to see 6' posts at £3.70 each!

Not that easy to find a fencing supplier with prices on a website.
Here you go though, this is a link to a price list download from a company called Golden Larch.
https://www.goldenlarch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/GLC-Price-List-1st-of-June-2021.pdf

Go down to 'softwood round stakes UC4', what do you know? £3.70. Down a bit further you have machined rounds for pennies more. If you were doing stock wire around a field or something, the first ones would be the ones you want as they are pointed.

Those prices are retail, and available to anyone. Trade prices would be a bit less (usually you get a 'pack price').

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

Just got off the phone from my fencing merchant.

Cement/postmix- no stock.
Stock fencing posts- very limited stock.
Larchlap panels- limited stock.
Closeboard fencing- surprisingly not too bad. Available with timber posts and boards.
Concrete posts- No stock, hasn't been for months.

If it's just the cement holding you up, then think outside the box. Look at alternatives. You might still be able to get extra rapid cement powder, as this is not much use for mass footings. NHL from a builders merchant should also work, although might take while to go off as it needs to absorb carbon from the air.

Otherwise look at just backfilling with another inert substrate. In flinty soils the soil you dig out works well. In clay or loose sand you will need something like type 1 or sandstone lumps. The key to a sucessful job (ie, as solid as concrete) is in the tamping. So you need either fit labourers who know the importance of working up in layers, or do as I do and invest in a hydraulic or air pole tamper.

I can set a gateposts in clay soils as strong as concrete with just sandstone lumps, and it doesn't take any longer with the machinery.

 

[Mark T Jones]

If it's just the cement holding you up, then think outside the box. Look at alternatives. .

You could use my scone recipe - that should hold tight for a few years.

otherwise, Cornflakes with milk.

 

[The Byre]

Not that easy to find a fencing supplier with prices on a website.
Here you go though, this is a link to a price list download from a company called Golden Larch.
https://www.goldenlarch.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/GLC-Price-List-1st-of-June-2021.pdf
Go down to 'softwood round stakes UC4', what do you know? £3.70.

Except that I bought (and needed) treated and square & pointed. Soft and round is what I am replacing! The first item in that list (assuming that they are pointed) - £6.43 less 20% for trade + VAT comes to £741 for a pallet of 120 posts and that is roughly what I paid.

So you need either fit labourers who know the importance of working up in layers.

In my case - Muggins! At least for the eleven strainers. The posts just get banged in with a 15kg banger-in thingy, after podgering* a hole with a massive pointed round iron bar.

*my second most fav. building trades word after noggins.

 

[AllUpHere]

Except that I bought (and needed) treated and square & pointed. Soft and round is what I am replacing! The first item in that list (assuming that they are pointed) - £6.43 less 20% for trade + VAT comes to £741 for a pallet of 120 posts and that is roughly what I paid.

To be fair, how was I to know you were trying to put a fence up like a crazy person? Why on earth would you use square posts for that?
I bet you got some strange looks asking for those. Your square posts will also be 'soft'.

 

[The Byre]

To be fair, how was I to know you were trying to put a fence up like a crazy person?

If you read my posts carefully, you will discover that I am, when compared to most people, going to do things differently. To most people, most of my decisions do, I must admit, look bonkers. Good. That's how I like it! Over the years, being bonkers has served me well.

This thread is about preparing for the worst. You do that by avoiding doing whatever it is that all the others are doing. The worst is what most people do. That's why it is the worst.

Where is the worst place to live? Where most people live.
What is the worst car to drive? The one most people drive.
The worst type of house is the type of house most people live in.
The worst job is the type of job most people have.
The worst food? The worst drink? The worst TV programme? You know the answer!

 

[AllUpHere]

If you read my posts carefully, you will discover that I am, when compared to most people, going to do things differently. To most people, most of my decisions do, I must admit, look bonkers. Good. That's how I like it! Over the years, being bonkers has served me well.

This thread is about preparing for the worst. You do that by avoiding doing whatever it is that all the others are doing. The worst is what most people do. That's why it is the worst.

Where is the worst place to live? Where most people live.
What is the worst car to drive? The one most people drive.
The worst type of house is the type of house most people live in.
The worst job is the type of job most people have.
The worst food? The worst drink? The worst TV programme? You know the answer!

Now that's definitely something we can agree on. I'm a big fan of working out what everyone else is doing, and then doing the opposite.

You should have used round posts though.

 

[DontAsk]

That's not true at all mate. Most timber in the UK is commercial woodland, but there just isn't the infrastructure to process it into fence posts.

Not true at all mate. There are plenty of sawmills up and down the country that produce posts and fence panelling.

 

[patientlady]

Fully qualified and insured. But I am admin now 90% so... Also we are specifically geared for fencing and I market fairly aggressively in that direction of course. Furthermore as 98% of our business is fencing/ gates so are our customers and our portfolio reflects that.

However, yes, it is a possible option but I'd be back to working 100 hour week and being up a tree with a chainsaw in a permanently knackered condition.

Yes I totally understand as my son in law does this in Australia and currently sitting last exams so that he can come off the tools. He is asleep most nights by 8.30, very tiring and dangerous occupation ...

 

[DontAsk]

Just got off the phone from my fencing merchant.

Cement/postmix- no stock.

Plenty in the DIY sheds (at the time of writing).

 

[bodgitt&scarperLTD]

Not true at all mate. There are plenty of sawmills up and down the country that produce posts and fence panelling.

There are sawmills, yes, but not the factory sawmills that can produce the volumes we have been importing from Scandinavia, or indeed any who can touch the Scandinavians for price. Hence my comment about there not being the infrastructure.