Does May want to win?

[Deleted member 59730]

Are there many pensioners freezing to death due to receiving only £200 / £300 already? If that little money makes the difference then there are bigger probems than a universal benefit.

Its about 20,000 per winter. In really bad winters the number nears 40,000. However that is not only pensioners but also middle aged living alone.

 

[Mr D]

Are you mad? Of course insulation plays a role. If there is insufficient insulation a house will be colder. Someone on low income can do nothing to deal with the insulation problem. Are you proposing a pensioner's isulation grant instead of a winter fuel allowance?

Have you ever experienced fuel poverty?

 

[Newchodge]

Have you ever experienced fuel poverty?

Yes, I have experienced homelessness, fuel poverty, food poverty, absolute poverty. Why?

 

[Mr D]

Its about 20,000 per winter. In really bad winters the number nears 40,000. However that is not only pensioners but also middle aged living alone.

So have to take the usual numbers out who would die in that time from the total to see what effect other factors have.

Will this removal (which we do not know the threshold to yet) impact people? Sure. Will it kill more? That is unknown until we do know what the threshold is.

Are there people in this country on lower total income than pensioners that have to pay for such things as food, clothing and heat?

 

[Mr D]

Yes, I have experienced homelessness, fuel poverty, food poverty, absolute poverty. Why?

So we have something in common.

 

[Newchodge]

So have to take the usual numbers out who would die in that time from the total to see what effect other factors have.

Will this removal (which we do not know the threshold to yet) impact people? Sure. Will it kill more? That is unknown until we do know what the threshold is.

Are there people in this country on lower total income than pensioners that have to pay for such things as food, clothing and heat?

The 'normal' number of deaths are taken out. The figure quoted is the excess number of deaths in the winter. All other things being equal that many people die because of the cold.

 

[Mr D]

The 'normal' number of deaths are taken out. The figure quoted is the excess number of deaths in the winter. All other things being equal that many people die because of the cold.

So in reality then the government should be increasing the fuel allowance to a couple of grand a year for everyone?

 

[Newchodge]

So in reality then the government should be increasing the fuel allowance to a couple of grand a year for everyone?

The government should be ensuring that everyone has sufficient to live on. That is what I would expect from a proper socialist government. The fact that the last Labour government went in the opposite dorection is something that the Labour party should be deeply ashamed of.

The government's primary role should be to care for the people of the country (or the world) not to care for the wealthy and businesses who exploit the people.

 

[Mr D]

The government should be ensuring that everyone has sufficient to live on. That is what I would expect from a proper socialist government. The fact that the last Labour government went in the opposite dorection is something that the Labour party should be deeply ashamed of.

The government's primary role should be to care for the people of the country (or the world) not to care for the wealthy and businesses who exploit the people.

Who decides someone has enough to live on?
Presumably you and I will have different bills.

Is government going to pay my mortgage if I cannot work? Is it going to pay my gas bill? Cannot offhand think of any government we have had who would do either. Cannot see it happening any time soon, no matter this election or any other.

 

[Newchodge]

Who decides someone has enough to live on?
Presumably you and I will have different bills.

Is government going to pay my mortgage if I cannot work? Is it going to pay my gas bill? Cannot offhand think of any government we have had who would do either. Cannot see it happening any time soon, no matter this election or any other.

Have you never heard of social security? That is the point, although successive governments have eroded the amount they pay further and further. In theory the social security system pays you enough to live on if you cannot get a job or cannot earn enough to live on. For some reason, however, pensioners are deemed to need at least twice as much as younger people to live on.

 

[Mr D]

Have you never heard of social security? That is the point, although successive governments have eroded the amount they pay further and further. In theory the social security system pays you enough to live on if you cannot get a job or cannot earn enough to live on. For some reason, however, pensioners are deemed to need at least twice as much as younger people to live on.

So how long since social security last covered the bills?
And if pensioners get at least twice as much as younger people then perhaps the winter fuel allowance is paid to the wrong people?

A quick look at the current rates - the single rate of jobseekers allowance for individual would not cover my gas bill. Never mind food etc.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

I've been looking through various comment sections on right-leaning websites regarding May's pensioner proposals. One point keeps cropping up over and over again:

Foreign aid.

A lot of people are incensed that cuts are being made to save a few billion per year while we spend over £13 billion every year on foreign aid.

UKIP could make some solid gains here, depending what's in their manifesto for pensioners and social care. They are, after all, committed to considerably cutting the foreign aid budget.

The Conservatives are certainly winning over a lot of UKIP voters as expected. However, I think this has been a reluctant change. Some are still sceptical, particularly when it comes to the Brexit negotiations. Perhaps these changes hitting pensioners will start to send some of them back in the other direction. It all depends on what UKIP has planned in their manifesto.

 

[Mr D]

UKIP making gains - judging by the recent council elections are the voters thinking UKIP are not needed as a party any more?
I know council and national elections can be quite different results, however we don't usually see a party sink as much as they did in the first elections after the referendum.

 

[Ian J]

UKIP could make some solid gains here, depending what's in their manifesto for pensioners and social care. They are, after all, committed to considerably cutting the foreign aid budget.

UKIP are a spent force and are likely to really struggle this time around. Their voters are likely to desert them in droves as firstly they were a one trick pony that have achieved what they set out to do and secondly like him or loathe him Nigel Farage was a fairly charismatic leader and now that he has gone so will his voters

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

UKIP are a spent force and are likely to really struggle this time around. Their voters are likely to desert them in droves as firstly they were a one trick pony that have achieved what they set out to do and secondly like him or loathe him Nigel Farage was a fairly charismatic leader and now that he has gone so will his voters

That was always likely to happen, but I don't think new Tory voters fresh from UKIP are as solid as May seems to think they are.

On the issue of Brexit, May was originally a remainer, so there's some scepticism amongst UKIP voters regarding the direction she'll go in during negotiations.

She seems to be taking a hard line, but I think this rhetoric is focused on:

1). Winning over UKIP voters
2). Bluffing in front of the EU to win more favourable terms

I don't think she actually wants a "hard" Brexit. She would prefer to retain some integration if it results in a better trade deal. But she's making clear that she will cut all ties if she has to.

That's the key difference. May would reluctantly shift the UK away from the EU, whereas UKIP actually want the cleanest break possible.

There are other policies too: Foreign aid cuts, the suppression of Islamic practices, harsher immigration stances, even lower tax cuts and so on.

I think a lot in the Conservative manifesto will be accepted by moderate conservatives, but really grind against those further to the right. This could result in a lot of protest voting, where they stick with UKIP even though they are indeed a spent force.

And this may be amplified by the apparent weakness of the opposition. No voters on the right appear genuinely concerned about Corbyn getting into power, so there's less urgency to vote Tory to make sure he stays out.

I'm looking at the older vote in particular. After these cuts to pensioner and social care funds, many pensioners may think twice about switching, or decide not to vote at all.

May will win, but when all is said and done, the only gain might be a stronger mandate.

 

[Cobby]

So have to take the usual numbers out who would die in that time from the total to see what effect other factors have.

Will this removal (which we do not know the threshold to yet) impact people? Sure. Will it kill more? That is unknown until we do know what the threshold is.

This is very peculiar. You seem to be arguing against the idea of providing this particular social safety net based solely on the fact that we cannot definitively prove that it is the sole cause for saving lives. Obviously it's only a contributory measure but there is enough correlation in the evidence to consider it important.

 

[Cobby]

like him or loathe him Nigel Farage was a fairly charismatic leader and now that he has gone so will his voters

Charisma, n., compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others

Hahaha, not even close.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

As a recipient of the winter fuel payment I was discussing with my wife last night the best way of redirecting the money to those more in need. My idea is to buy electric overblankets and deliver them to the nearest food bank. (Something I'll check with the food bank first)

Any better ideas.

 

[Newchodge]

As a recipient of the winter fuel payment I was discussing with my wife last night the best way of redirecting the money to those more in need. My idea is to buy electric overblankets and deliver them to the nearest food bank. (Something I'll check with the food bank first)

Any better ideas.

As I understand it the main issue is not night-time cold - a reasonable duvet will combat that - it is partly the lack of mobility that is caused by a cold house. If you are sitting under a blanket all day you are less likely to get up and move around as you will be moving into cold, and lack of mobility contributes to morbidity and mortality rates in the elderly.

So I am not sure electric blankets are the answer!

Getting rid of a government that intends to bring this policy in would be the better solution.

 

[Newchodge]

So how long since social security last covered the bills?
And if pensioners get at least twice as much as younger people then perhaps the winter fuel allowance is paid to the wrong people?

A quick look at the current rates - the single rate of jobseekers allowance for individual would not cover my gas bill. Never mind food etc.

So the answer is to ensure that all who need social security benefits receive them at a rate that allows them to live properly, not reducing the income of others so the misery is shared more widely. One of the techniques of recent governments is to get us to blame each other for what is wrong - immigrants, benefit scroungers, pensioners, instead of blaming those responsible - government.

 

[Mr D]

So the answer is to ensure that all who need social security benefits receive them at a rate that allows them to live properly, not reducing the income of others so the misery is shared more widely. One of the techniques of recent governments is to get us to blame each other for what is wrong - immigrants, benefit scroungers, pensioners, instead of blaming those responsible - government.

Yes, just put VAT up to 50% and tax all income, no personal allowances. That would pay for it.

 

[Mr D]

As I understand it the main issue is not night-time cold - a reasonable duvet will combat that - it is partly the lack of mobility that is caused by a cold house. If you are sitting under a blanket all day you are less likely to get up and move around as you will be moving into cold, and lack of mobility contributes to morbidity and mortality rates in the elderly.

So I am not sure electric blankets are the answer!

Getting rid of a government that intends to bring this policy in would be the better solution.

Well you have your chance on 8th June. You can vote in an MP whose party promises to bring in your required changes. Cannot offhand recall any of the manifestos I have read covering such things but sure you can find one.

However it is quite likely that you will get the government other voters want. For whatever reason people will vote for a particular person or party.

 

[Mr D]

This is very peculiar. You seem to be arguing against the idea of providing this particular social safety net based solely on the fact that we cannot definitively prove that it is the sole cause for saving lives. Obviously it's only a contributory measure but there is enough correlation in the evidence to consider it important.

Should this safety net be provided to all who need it? Or just all pensioners?

 

[Mr D]

May will win, but when all is said and done, the only gain might be a stronger mandate.

Is that not what she is looking for?

 

[Newchodge]

Yes, just put VAT up to 50% and tax all income, no personal allowances. That would pay for it.

It seems to work in Scandinavia.

 

[Ian J]

Charisma, n., compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others

Hahaha, not even close.

I was referring to Nigel Farage not you.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

For a look at how strawberries are grown

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...coming-food-crisis-seasonal-migrant-labour-eu

Not like the Darling Buds of May is it?

 

[Mr D]

It seems to work in Scandinavia.

Might have noticed Britain is not Scandinavia.
Whatever methods are used have to work in Britain. Plenty of things work in other countries that we don't make work here.

 

[Cobby]

As I understand it the main issue is not night-time cold - a reasonable duvet will combat that - it is partly the lack of mobility that is caused by a cold house. If you are sitting under a blanket all day you are less likely to get up and move around as you will be moving into cold, and lack of mobility contributes to morbidity and mortality rates in the elderly.

The cold is, I believe, also a contributor to elderly hypertension.

 

[Cobby]

Might have noticed Britain is not Scandinavia.
Whatever methods are used have to work in Britain. Plenty of things work in other countries that we don't make work here.

I find it amusing that anybody questioning the right-wing's desire to pull Britain off an economic cliff is labelled as "not believing in Britain", but when you suggest alternatives to try and salvage the country, anything new is seen as "well that's just not British is it!".

There's a certain lack of intellectual honesty to it all.

I was referring to Nigel Farage not you.

What an odd response. Sorry for insulting your big ol' racist hero I guess?

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Is that not what she is looking for?

I think when May first called this snap election, she was expecting both. By that I mean a stronger mandate and a bigger majority to push it through easier.

She's included what she wants to do in the Conservative manifesto, so when she wins, that gives her the mandate to follow through with her policies.

There's a possibility now, however, that the Conservatives will end up with fewer MPs than they have at the moment. She will still have a workable majority, but she'll need strong partisan support on major bills.

The problem is the Tories are far from united at the moment. Much like what's happening with the Republicans in the US, the moderate-right and hard-right don't see eye to eye. Some think policies go too far, while others think the same policies don't go far enough.

I can guarantee that some Conservative MPs will rebel at some point - particularly regarding EU negotiations and the social care/pensioner reforms. Just look at what happened when Hammond tried to increase NI rates.

When all is said and done, she may need to rely on bipartisan support in some cases, which I think she was really hoping to avoid.

 

[Newchodge]

When all is said and done, she may need to rely on bipartisan support in some cases, which I think she was really hoping to avoid.

Always assuming that she wins.

I have just watched the Andrew Marr show on catchup. Damien Green was appalling and completely unable to defend the manifesto.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Always assuming that she wins.

I have just watched the Andrew Marr show on catchup. Damien Green was appalling and completely unable to defend the manifesto.

The only reason May is highly likely to win is down to gaining UKIP voters and possibly even some SNP voters.

Labour under Corbyn is, after all, polling just as well as the party did under Ed Miliband. I suspect by the end of the election, Labour will improve on the vote share they had in 2015 (unless the polls are wrong again).

The rise of UKIP and SNP has ultimately made all the difference. Now Brexit is going to be delivered, UKIP is losing votes to the Tories.

The Scottish National Party also has its own concerns, as Sturgeon's attempts to gain a second independence referendum are driving some pro-union voters towards the Tories in the traditionally centre-leaning areas of Scotland. There's also a rumour that Sturgeon is going to increase the top rate of tax to 50p, which will add further fuel to that fire.

For May to lose, she would have to cause her own fall. There's every possibility, of course, that she could do this. Some of her policies really won't go down well with a lot of her core voter groups. Everything now depends on how they're spun in the run up to the election.

The polling next weekend should paint a much clearer picture when everyone has had a proper chance to digest the Conservative manifesto.

 

[Mr D]

She's included what she wants to do in the Conservative manifesto, so when she wins, that gives her the mandate to follow through with her policies.

There's a possibility now, however, that the Conservatives will end up with fewer MPs than they have at the moment. She will still have a workable majority, but she'll need strong partisan support on major bills.

The problem is the Tories are far from united at the moment. Much like what's happening with the Republicans in the US, the moderate-right and hard-right don't see eye to eye. Some think policies go too far, while others think the same policies don't go far enough.

I can guarantee that some Conservative MPs will rebel at some point - particularly regarding EU negotiations and the social care/pensioner reforms. Just look at what happened when Hammond tried to increase NI rates.

When all is said and done, she may need to rely on bipartisan support in some cases, which I think she was really hoping to avoid.

Pretty much any party (Greens excepted, possibly) in parliament will not be united on everything. A party is a group who broadly support the same thing. Not necessarily all aspects of government decisions and not to the same degree.
Though saying that, Corbyn voted against his own party so many times over the years I have to wonder what he is leader of....

Pretty much every issue will have supporters of each side contacting their MP before a parliamentary vote - plus the MP will have their own ideas on many things.

 

[Mr D]

I find it amusing that anybody questioning the right-wing's desire to pull Britain off an economic cliff is labelled as "not believing in Britain", but when you suggest alternatives to try and salvage the country, anything new is seen as "well that's just not British is it!".

There's a certain lack of intellectual honesty to it all.

QUOTE]

Any change has to be what can be accepted in this country.
We could import an idea that works in another culture but does not fit our culture. Saudi ideas about the role of women in society for example, no way would be accepted here. Have to fit the British culture.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

Pretty much any party (Greens excepted, possibly) in parliament will not be united on everything. A party is a group who broadly support the same thing. Not necessarily all aspects of government decisions and not to the same degree.
Though saying that, Corbyn voted against his own party so many times over the years I have to wonder what he is leader of....

Correct. That's why it's so important for May to gain a larger majority.

If May has a 140 seat majority, she could lose 100 Tory MP votes and still pass a bill. However, if she only has a 50 seat majority, that same level of rebellion could scupper her bill.

The larger her majority is, the more leeway she has. She doesn't have to try and please as much of her own party as she usually would by compromising on issues.

I suspect May's greatest fear is Brexit. On the run up to the EU referendum, 185 Conservative MPs backed remain, and 138 backed leave.

With the vast majority of the Commons for remain, including most of her own party, she may face very stiff resistance if she goes down the "hard Brexit" route.

A bigger Conservative majority would help matters (as they tend to lean more towards leave than the other parties sans UKIP), but it still wouldn't be an easy path.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I'm not sure what affect May's decision to hold this GE will be but she is certainly taking advantage of the other parties. With the local council elections draining the smaller parties coffers and energy many have decided not to fight. In my constituency we have reduced to a 3 horse race. Some lib dem volunteers worked flat out addressing envelopes for the local elections and then went straight into working on the GE. I thought that the idea of having fixed term parliaments was to avoid one party taking unfair advantage.

 

[Mr D]

-And by bringing in a change in social care funding as part of manifesto it gives her leeway to bring it in during parliament. As voters have given her a mandate.

Now if she was neck and neck with Labour in the past few months and looking at best at a small majority (or even a minority) then she'd be a fool to mention controversial changes in the manifesto. No matter how much they were needed or wanted by her party.

 

[Mr D]

I'm not sure what affect May's decision to hold this GE will be but she is certainly taking advantage of the other parties. With the local council elections draining the smaller parties coffers and energy many have decided not to fight. In my constituency we have reduced to a 3 horse race. Some lib dem volunteers worked flat out addressing envelopes for the local elections and then went straight into working on the GE. I thought that the idea of having fixed term parliaments was to avoid one party taking unfair advantage.

Its not taking unfair advantage, its taking advantage of it being ahead in the polls. As is traditional for GE.
Be daft for a GE to be called by the PM when the party in government is likely to lose power.
The 5 year fixed term was brought in specifically with an override available through parliament. And it was given.
Parliament had the opportunity to refuse a GE. It declined to refuse.

 

[Scott-Copywriter]

An interesting point from Matt Singh at Number Cruncher Politics today:

"34 years ago this weekend, there were three polls out showing the Tory lead being slashed to 9-10 points..."

That election was, of course, the one in 1983, where Thatcher won by a landslide with a colossal majority.

The situations do share some similarities. For example, Michael Foot swung the Labour party much further to the left compared to previous leaders. We also can't ignore that the Conservatives are being led by the Iron Lady mk2.

However, there are differences as well. Back then, the SNP-Liberal Alliance picked up 25% of the vote share as the third party - almost exceeding Labour's 27%. Even all of the smaller parties combined this time around will fail to take anywhere near that.

Plus, Labour's most recent manifesto has been fairly well received - much unlike Foot's "longest suicide note in history".

Perhaps it's an omen though. Who knows. The pollsters did get it wrong in 2015...