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Container Shipping Rates

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Chris Ashdown said:
What makes you think it will blow over, the shipping companies now know that people will pay the higher prices, just the same as oil companies do, so I would expect little lowering of prices in the long term, basic supply and demand

Maybe China will soon price itself out of the market with higher labour costs
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Blow over was a play on words. I think before long governments will try to force price compression, namely China. They need volume the deep water ports in China provide.

I agree though, I don't think we will see old prices for a long time to come, if at all.
 
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I still think China will force price reduction. I know of one factory I deal with has several orders on hold because buyers can’t commit to the higher shipping cost.
 
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OMGVape said:
I still think China will force price reduction. I know of one factory I deal with has several orders on hold because buyers can’t commit to the higher shipping cost.
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Rumour is CCP will prevent ocean carriers docking if rates don't fall. How this will work in practice and it's unintended consequences, I have no idea.
 
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Just got this from our shipping agent.

" As a benchmark you’d be looking around usd 8500.00 / 20’ and usd 15000.00 / 40’/40hc for China main port but even that is expected to rise "
 
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We continued to be caned on the rates that we're paying, (as is everybody else,) but can anybody foresee it getting easier anytime this year?

We have bulk shipments that are scheduled to go on the water in August/September, and we are in a position whereby we could delay them. Some that we have spoken to have suggested that prices will continue to rise, in which case we may as well ship as soon as we can, but conversely, others have said that they may start to fall come the late autumn in which case we wil push shipments back.

So, if anybody has access to a crystal ball then an insight would be appreciated.

The only silver lining is that this is going to affect all importers which means that the pain will be shared.
 
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GraemeL said:
Thats the point. Almost everyone will have to put up prices so the field remains level. Hopefully it will encorage UK manufacturing.
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And the government is wondering why inflation is creeping up but don't seem to be mentioning this (shipping costs) as an issue
 
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Time to look around other country's and see what they have to offer. it's easy to just look at China for low costs, but they have been increasing year on year. who is the alternative country with supplier's of what you buy, you could possibly be the first in a new market, India, Africa or Europe may come up trumps
 
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Chris Ashdown said:
Time to look around other country's and see what they have to offer. it's easy to just look at China for low costs, but they have been increasing year on year. who is the alternative country with supplier's of what you buy, you could possibly be the first in a new market, India, Africa or Europe may come up trumps
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Shipping prices are crazy throughout the world, not just China sadly. The "big 11" own such a high proportion of the market worldwide it is just knocking on everywhere.
 
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AlanJ1 said:
Shipping prices are crazy throughout the world, not just China sadly. The "big 11" own such a high proportion of the market worldwide it is just knocking on everywhere.
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Most definitely this - Freight is up globally. We did a pricing exercise recently and even with closer-to-home production, China still came out trumps for our particular range of products.
 
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GraemeL said:
Thats the point. Almost everyone will have to put up prices so the field remains level. Hopefully it will encorage UK manufacturing.
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Nice thought and whilst I welcome any UK production, my guess is freight will remain high until CNY and then level out at whatever the new higher freight rate will be, I doubt it will return to pre Covid rates ever. If at that time buyers have good suppliers in Asia, they will go back to them, if they don't their competitors will.

There is no time to set up a UK manufacturing in this time, the costs of the freight will just have to be passed on to the end consumer
 
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In the past many a good company has gone bust because they waited for things to return to "Normal" which never happened. Those who adapted to the new situation, by cutting overheads or finding new suppliers survived
Waiting is a very risky business decision
 
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OMGVape said:
Hesitated with my booking last week.

It's now gone up by $700 in 5 days :-(
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I work with a factory in China, our customers buy fob and it is a nightmare. We were quoted FAK rates yesterday of $18k for 40ft H/C and that is IF they can get the equipment. We have customers with contracts at $8k but they are not moving anything as the shipping lines are

My advice if you need the stock is to take the price and ship because presently the prices are only going one way and if you hesitate the price will go up

We've lived in such anti inflationary times for so long, it is about to stop. Don't be frightened to tell customers the price is going up if they want their products as the container prices look unlikely to drop until after CNY 2022....or of course they can wait !
 
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Washington said:
We've lived in such anti inflationary times for so long, it is about to stop. Don't be frightened to tell customers the price is going up if they want their products as the container prices look unlikely to drop until after CNY 2022....or of course they can wait !
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Exactly what we have just done, B2B pricing increase.
 
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Looks like the August increase in shipping rates is as significant as most of the prior increases. Will it ever end?
 
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We have a contract at $8K but basically, it is not being honoured, but I think we are no different to most others

Good luck !!
 
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Washington said:
We have a contract at $8K but basically, it is not being honoured, but I think we are no different to most others

Good luck !!
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It's ridiculous. I wonder how things would work next year if you locked into a contract at $16k and tried to get out of it to ship at $6k instead.
 
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The shipping companies have no honour, I think we know that now. My guess is they would have you in court....Will contracts have a value in the future, who knows !

Any loyalty a customer will have had previously has gone out of the window
 
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Few things ever go down in price once the seller knows the price you are willing to pay and i guess the same will apply to shipping rates if you prove you are willing to pay todays rate why should they lower it later.

Yes in the long term new competitors may come on the market but still use the base price to pay for the new ships,

This post is about shipping by sea but I bet the airlines freight rate have also gone up substantially

May be the biggest killer of Far East imports and bring manufacturing back to Europe
 
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Chris Ashdown said:
i guess the same will apply to shipping rates if you prove you are willing to pay todays rate why should they lower it later.
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but not everyone is willing to pay it. Factories all over China are loosing orders and many have stock ready to ship but the buyers just can’t/won’t pay the shipping costs.
It will start hurting China’s economy before long, that’s when the shipping companies will feel pressure to stop being greedy. (Mmm, unless China are in on it ? )
 
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As above just seeing news feeds saying rates now over $20,000 container seems like there's no sign of it stopping either
 
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I've read that until new capacity comes online from the vessel shopping spree the big carriers have been spending their extreme profits on, acceptable rates aren't likely until end of 2022 earliest.

Personally, I can't see a world where a 40ftHC are sub $2000 FOB>Door again.
 
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Finally, some bad news for the shipping of containers from China. A positive Covid case in Ningbo resulting in the third largest container port in the world turning away ships....
 
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FaaF said:
Finally, some bad news for the shipping of containers from China. A positive Covid case in Ningbo resulting in the third largest container port in the world turning away ships....
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Phew! Luckily my current order is out of Xingang.
 
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