T
The Byre
- Original Poster
- #1
Looking at this chart (Crescat Capital newsletter) that places the NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index against the S&P 500, one sees how US stocks tend to show the same or very similar behavior, albeit a few months later.
Over the past few months, China indexes have more or less halved. Since the C19 shock, the S&P went from 2,400 to 4,400 and is still going gang-busters.
That specific China index has since had a bit of a dead-cat-bounce around 10,000 as speculators assume that it has reached the bottom and is now seeming to bounce off a $11k floor.
The Fed continues to prop up the US market with the purchase of $200bn in company bonds every month, all generated by QE. But if US share prices halve as they did in the three years following the 2000 dot-com bubble deflating and in the 18 months following the 2007 CDO crisis, then the FTSE 100 will pretty much follow suit.
The banking crisis saw house prices in the UK fall from £190k on average to £155k. The dot-com bust of 2000 did not affect house prices - in fact, quite the opposite: when that bubble burst there was a flight to quality and houses were seen as quality investments.
US inflation remains a worry. Officially at 5.4%, Shadow-Stats puts it at 13.5%. Even the official CPI figure is a big jump from 0% when the C19 virus reared its' head in 2020. Professor Steve Hanke (John Hopkins University, Baltimore) states that 9% is already baked into the system and QE continues to feed that trend.
Interesting times - as they say!
Over the past few months, China indexes have more or less halved. Since the C19 shock, the S&P went from 2,400 to 4,400 and is still going gang-busters.
That specific China index has since had a bit of a dead-cat-bounce around 10,000 as speculators assume that it has reached the bottom and is now seeming to bounce off a $11k floor.
The Fed continues to prop up the US market with the purchase of $200bn in company bonds every month, all generated by QE. But if US share prices halve as they did in the three years following the 2000 dot-com bubble deflating and in the 18 months following the 2007 CDO crisis, then the FTSE 100 will pretty much follow suit.
The banking crisis saw house prices in the UK fall from £190k on average to £155k. The dot-com bust of 2000 did not affect house prices - in fact, quite the opposite: when that bubble burst there was a flight to quality and houses were seen as quality investments.
US inflation remains a worry. Officially at 5.4%, Shadow-Stats puts it at 13.5%. Even the official CPI figure is a big jump from 0% when the C19 virus reared its' head in 2020. Professor Steve Hanke (John Hopkins University, Baltimore) states that 9% is already baked into the system and QE continues to feed that trend.
Interesting times - as they say!
