Brexit

[Sparetoolparts]

Hi All

It is looking like we will get special status in this Brexit Sage do you think this will help our businesses or hinder them?

If the Status Quo is maintained for Trading with the EU I think it can only help us or maybe just me, as I didn't fancy the whole Exporting issues that no doubt would have come up

 

[talksalot81]

I’m fairly sure any special status would help us. I would imagine it would give us access to both the new UK schemes but not inhibit from anything EU. Of course your post is several months old so I guess we know, or are fairly sure, that one group of politicians is more concerned with absolute unity with GB than with what might actually be most beneficial for our region, so the headline question is somewha moot.

Overall, I am massively annoyed at th political situation. The Brexit scenario is bad enough but the NI scenario is almost a case of “anything you can mess up, we can mess up better!”. Ultimately I feel that NI politics has totally failed the people and the worst thing about it is that a significant portion of those people are utterly oblivious that their petty squabbling is seriously detrimental to their lives and futures, as a whole.

 

[Mr D]

We don't actually know what the NI status will be any more than we know what the UK status will be.
First the negotiating teams have to hammer out an agreement on a ton of things. Then 28 countries governments get to vote on it. Including our parliament where no one party has a majority and where the largest party has internal disagreements over aspects of agreements.

So we could walk away with no deal at all. Or some deal that bears little resemblance to what has been agreed so far. Or stay in the EU. Or stay for a time in a transition lasting years. Or anywhere in between any of those.

 

[The Byre]

So we could walk away with no deal at all. Or some deal that bears little resemblance to what has been agreed so far. Or stay in the EU. Or stay for a time in a transition lasting years. Or anywhere in between any of those.

As Jeremy Hardy said on this week's News Quiz "It's like watching a puppy driving a bin lorry!"

 

[Mr D]

As Jeremy Hardy said on this week's News Quiz "It's like watching a puppy driving a bin lorry!"

Back when I was young and a new ice age was the thing to look forward to I believed that negotiations could solve many things.
Then I grew up and the world is very different than I had been taught.

I've come up with a simple solution that sounds grand. Invade Europe.
Worked last century.

 

[talksalot81]

My view is that special status for NI would mean that we would get any benefits to be afforded by Brexit but would also retain anything that we might potentially lose. From a business perspective, I have yet to see any argument (convincing or otherwise) which makes me hunk special status is a bad thing.

Of course we do not know what the deal will be, I just find it hard to conceive that special status would be bad for us.

 

[Mr D]

My view is that special status for NI would mean that we would get any benefits to be afforded by Brexit but would also retain anything that we might potentially lose. From a business perspective, I have yet to see any argument (convincing or otherwise) which makes me hunk special status is a bad thing.

Of course we do not know what the deal will be, I just find it hard to conceive that special status would be bad for us.

If and its a big if, you do get special status.
Without a deal you don't get special status.

 

[talksalot81]

If and its a big if, you do get special status.
Without a deal you don't get special status.

Yes, of course.

I note you are not in NI so perhaps my earlier statement didn’t resonate. The NI political environment is such that one of the two major parties is unwilling to even consider anything that distinguishes NI ffom the rest of the UK. Even if it were beneficial, they would view it as a split from the union. As such, a special deal has been repeatedly and categorically ruled out. Even if the EU insisted and the UK government accepted, this NI party can block it because they can refuse to back the government in a vote. I am unclear how well appreciated this is on the mainland but the reality is that YOUR Brexit is at the mercy these people. If they don’t get what you want, they will stop you getting what you want too.

Ps. Any break from the union is bad... but things like abortion and equal rights for marriage are different. You mainland people are damned to hell and we don’t want to be like you... (maybe you can better appreciate the danger of being in league with such people when you understand how easily they change the rules...)

 

[The Byre]

The one thing the puppy driving the bin lorry seems to have forgotten, is the number of crossing between North and South. If we add all the farm tracks and paths, it comes to a couple of thousand at least! Not only would a difference in tariffs etc. be politically impossible, but it is and it always was a physical non-starter! You cannot ask a farmer to carry a passport and file a carnet in order to walk across his field!

one of the two major parties is unwilling to even consider anything that distinguishes NI from the rest of the UK. Even if it were beneficial, they would view it as a split from the union. As such, a special deal has been repeatedly and categorically ruled out. Even if the EU insisted and the UK government accepted, this NI party can block it because they can refuse to back the government in a vote. I am unclear how well appreciated this is on the mainland

Not one bit. Westminster is completely obsessed with, er, well - Westminster.

Ask any mainstream Westminster politician about Brexit and they will bang on about the goings on in their bubble, but are remarkably uninformed about life outside of the Westminster bubble.

 

[talksalot81]

Which is somewhat analogous to going test driving a Ferrari with only enough money in the bank to pay for your shopping!

Of course, had May not called the general election, she would not need the NI politicians. She could have pushed through a better Brexit and made concessions on NI. The NI politicians couldn’t have blocked and would, by extension, be unable to pull strings on a direct rule scenario at home. They would likely have had much more incentive to reform the local government as it would have been the only mechanism to have any control over the direction of NI Brexit.

It’s a slightly hilarious set of circumstances that has put the whole country into a potential catch 22 situation.

 

[Mr D]

Yes, of course.

I note you are not in NI so perhaps my earlier statement didn’t resonate. The NI political environment is such that one of the two major parties is unwilling to even consider anything that distinguishes NI ffom the rest of the UK. Even if it were beneficial, they would view it as a split from the union. As such, a special deal has been repeatedly and categorically ruled out. Even if the EU insisted and the UK government accepted, this NI party can block it because they can refuse to back the government in a vote. I am unclear how well appreciated this is on the mainland but the reality is that YOUR Brexit is at the mercy these people. If they don’t get what you want, they will stop you getting what you want too.

Ps. Any break from the union is bad... but things like abortion and equal rights for marriage are different. You mainland people are damned to hell and we don’t want to be like you... (maybe you can better appreciate the danger of being in league with such people when you understand how easily they change the rules...)

Don't ask me, your laws are closer to the English ones than Scotland has.
And its your Brexit too, like it or not it was a UK wide decision.
And with dozens of MPs willing to vote against their own party on a Brexit agreement then a few MPs from NI that don't take their seats and a few MPs who do take their seats and may well vote against the government on a particular issue don't really matter.

So a possible result, perhaps even likely some would say, is that whatever agreement is not supported and we end up with no agreement.

 

[Mr D]

Which is somewhat analogous to going test driving a Ferrari with only enough money in the bank to pay for your shopping!

Of course, had May not called the general election, she would not need the NI politicians. She could have pushed through a better Brexit and made concessions on NI. The NI politicians couldn’t have blocked and would, by extension, be unable to pull strings on a direct rule scenario at home. They would likely have had much more incentive to reform the local government as it would have been the only mechanism to have any control over the direction of NI Brexit.

It’s a slightly hilarious set of circumstances that has put the whole country into a potential catch 22 situation.

You think May with her small majority before the GE could have pushed through Brexit stuff despite the numbers within her own party who were against particular aspects of Brexit?

 

[Newchodge]

I don't understand how special status for NI can possibly work without some form of hard border somewhere. It can't be on the island of Ireland for lots of obvious reasons, including geography and politics. But it can't be between NI and the mainland for obvious political reasons.

May and her dire tribe seem to think they can get rid of the problem by not thinking about it. That'll work.

 

[Mr D]

I don't understand how special status for NI can possibly work without some form of hard border somewhere. It can't be on the island of Ireland for lots of obvious reasons, including geography and politics. But it can't be between NI and the mainland for obvious political reasons.

May and her dire tribe seem to think they can get rid of the problem by not thinking about it. That'll work.

They could wait for the other parties to come up with a workable solution. Look how that works.

Its a situation with no simple answer. Complex ones, not simple. And the answers have a price, a price that governments may indeed not be willing to pay.

So should they abandon brexit because of the problem?