Automotive industry, what's the future?
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My two cents...
Fuel & Range
As a motorsport enthusiast and car nut who is also into technology quite a bit, I believe the future is in bio fuelled hybrid engines and not fully electric vehicles. Something Formula 1 has started to put its weight behind (which in turn has attracted the VW Group's attention).
There's too much complexity and danger associated with rapidly charging batteries in order to extend a vehicle's range, not to mention a huge change in infrastructure. It sounds much more viable to me to use the pumps we already have at garages to deliver a none polluting fuel instead and instantly provide a car with extended range, as we have it now.
Usage & Autonomy
With the world going down this 'on demand' format I suspect the future for private ownership of vehicles will dwindle over the next 15 to 30 years. Lower costs and convenience will win here so I see a world where you jump into a car you've just booked to use, drive yourself somewhere and then park it up and leave it. It will then either get collected, get booked to be used by someone else or one day, simply drive itself away (see next paragraph on this).
I think we're 2 or 3 decades away from Knight Rider's Kit. The responsibility when something goes wrong regarding insurance must be a nightmare. We'll see it in commercial use for a long time first such as self-driving lorries that go from point A to point B on a motorway to then have their trailers hooked up to a standard lorry for the final stretch. Self-driving cars on the other hand will probably only function when no one else is in the car, as a way to finger point more accurately when something goes wrong.
In fact, I remember reading about a company showcasing at CES earlier in the year (last year?) whereby they used 'pilots' to remotely drive cars to people for them to use. Once the person had finished using the car they'd park it and the remote pilot would drive the car away/to another person. The company themselves said it was a stop-gap because we're so far away from full autonomy still. A bit like a self-serve taxi I guess. It was pretty cool.
Fuel & Range
As a motorsport enthusiast and car nut who is also into technology quite a bit, I believe the future is in bio fuelled hybrid engines and not fully electric vehicles. Something Formula 1 has started to put its weight behind (which in turn has attracted the VW Group's attention).
There's too much complexity and danger associated with rapidly charging batteries in order to extend a vehicle's range, not to mention a huge change in infrastructure. It sounds much more viable to me to use the pumps we already have at garages to deliver a none polluting fuel instead and instantly provide a car with extended range, as we have it now.
Usage & Autonomy
With the world going down this 'on demand' format I suspect the future for private ownership of vehicles will dwindle over the next 15 to 30 years. Lower costs and convenience will win here so I see a world where you jump into a car you've just booked to use, drive yourself somewhere and then park it up and leave it. It will then either get collected, get booked to be used by someone else or one day, simply drive itself away (see next paragraph on this).
I think we're 2 or 3 decades away from Knight Rider's Kit. The responsibility when something goes wrong regarding insurance must be a nightmare. We'll see it in commercial use for a long time first such as self-driving lorries that go from point A to point B on a motorway to then have their trailers hooked up to a standard lorry for the final stretch. Self-driving cars on the other hand will probably only function when no one else is in the car, as a way to finger point more accurately when something goes wrong.
In fact, I remember reading about a company showcasing at CES earlier in the year (last year?) whereby they used 'pilots' to remotely drive cars to people for them to use. Once the person had finished using the car they'd park it and the remote pilot would drive the car away/to another person. The company themselves said it was a stop-gap because we're so far away from full autonomy still. A bit like a self-serve taxi I guess. It was pretty cool.
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My car lease comes to an end in November and my wife and I are questioning do we need two cars between us any more. We're not alone either, some of our friends have gone from two car couples to one car between them as the world of work has changed. I used to drive to the office and to meetings daily, now I travel to the office usually twice a week and pretty much every meeting is a video call.
Based on my personal experience I think the automative industry is in for a rough ride as more and more people will start to question, do I need a car?
Based on my personal experience I think the automative industry is in for a rough ride as more and more people will start to question, do I need a car?
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I have an XJR but it not a sibling of either of yoursNot giving up my XFR or my XJS
Yamaha XJR1300 (1999-2014): [ Review & Buying Guide ]
A superb machine for cruising around on that is powered by a proper old-school big-capacity air-cooled motor, the XJR has a huge fanbase thanks to its cool looks, fun nature and practicality.
www.bennetts.co.uk
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Old or new?I have an XJR but it not a sibling of either of yours
Yamaha XJR1300 (1999-2014): [ Review & Buying Guide ]
A superb machine for cruising around on that is powered by a proper old-school big-capacity air-cooled motor, the XJR has a huge fanbase thanks to its cool looks, fun nature and practicality.www.bennetts.co.uk
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Yes! ...and no!
I suspect that replacement cells or replacement/upgrade of whole battery packs, motors etc will become very big business.
I also suspect that the big players who change oil, tyres etc are watching this with interest and could push an independent competitor out of business as they have for many independent (ICE) garages before.
But on balance, as with other sectors, becoming a trusted specialist could be a great business.
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One of the first non SP 1300's, I am 3rd owner but I knew both the previous (the second only did 4k miles in the 5 yrs he had it) and the same mechanic (a mete of mine) has done every piece of work on it including the Original Pre Delivery Inspection, it looks scruffy now after 60k miles but runs like a dream.
On a serious note i think a lot of 2 car families are willing to drop a car and maybe get a bike as 2nd vehicle (be that motorcycle or pedelec) i know the value of small capacity motorcycles is appreciating. My daughter has a 125 Varadero that we carefully picked as the earliest fuel injected model so ULEZ compliant (2007) she paid £1500 2 years ago (she is 6'2" so needed a high bike)
You now cant find them for love nor money but when they come up they are nearly double that and even earlier models that will get hammered by any emissions charging zones are over £2k.
If you are old enough to have taken your car test when you got permanent provisional motorcycle entitlement you can sit a 125cc bike in a garage / shed pay about £150 insurance, £22 VED and £26 for an MOT (which it will usually sail through) and have a second vehicle to pop out on when needed for under £5 a week
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Cars are defiitely moving towards being things of function rather than of pleasure (though I will fiercely hold on to my gas-guzzler).
EVs are more closely related to the tech industry than the automotive industry, As such I foresee a standard tech trend where, once the technoloy becomes established and tested,, prices will drop whilst capabailities increase. Which is why I have no intention of being an early-adopter.
EVs are more closely related to the tech industry than the automotive industry, As such I foresee a standard tech trend where, once the technoloy becomes established and tested,, prices will drop whilst capabailities increase. Which is why I have no intention of being an early-adopter.
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T
The Byre
Right now the automotive industry is in a strange sort of holding pattern - waiting for Godot or rather, waiting for better, lighter, cheaper batteries and for the supply chains to calm down. In the meantime, they are taking conventional heavy steel-based cars and shoving batteries in them and calling them EVs, when in reality, they are just regular cars that had had their engines removed.
The reality is that the car of the future will be far more diverse. Most people just want a convenient car to do the shopping and the daily commute - and to take the wife/husband to the airport to visit his/her parents so that they do not try to come for a visit and spend two weeks over Christmas annoying everybody.
Something like this https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G8a...orus_image/image/69061116/Aperta_square.0.jpg
Because the Aptera is so light and uses the sun to recharge, even in the UK, you would only have to actually charge it up from the grid two or three times a year (10,000 miles p.a. driving).
For some things like light deliveries, drones will be the answer in many areas. Houses could have designated drone landing sites - sort of mini helipads, but with a D in a circle on the back lawn, or wherever.
At the moment, anything long-range and/or heavy means Diesel. That cannot change until newer technologies are developed - and I have not seen anything on the horizon there. That two-ton CNC machine for your production line and all those pallets of vegetables and gunk for the supermarkets are still going to have to arrive in a Diesel truck with a tail-lift.
But everywhere, scientists are working on cheaper batteries - for example, a sodium-sulfur battery created by engineers at The University of Texas - cheaper and uses benign chemicals, unlike Li-Ion batteries. The problems start with weight and energy capacity. Less than 80kgs of Diesel will still get you and your 1.5-ton car from London to Edinburgh and back. 80kgs of any battery will hardly get you anywhere!
The reality is that the car of the future will be far more diverse. Most people just want a convenient car to do the shopping and the daily commute - and to take the wife/husband to the airport to visit his/her parents so that they do not try to come for a visit and spend two weeks over Christmas annoying everybody.
Something like this https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/G8a...orus_image/image/69061116/Aperta_square.0.jpg
Because the Aptera is so light and uses the sun to recharge, even in the UK, you would only have to actually charge it up from the grid two or three times a year (10,000 miles p.a. driving).
For some things like light deliveries, drones will be the answer in many areas. Houses could have designated drone landing sites - sort of mini helipads, but with a D in a circle on the back lawn, or wherever.
At the moment, anything long-range and/or heavy means Diesel. That cannot change until newer technologies are developed - and I have not seen anything on the horizon there. That two-ton CNC machine for your production line and all those pallets of vegetables and gunk for the supermarkets are still going to have to arrive in a Diesel truck with a tail-lift.
But everywhere, scientists are working on cheaper batteries - for example, a sodium-sulfur battery created by engineers at The University of Texas - cheaper and uses benign chemicals, unlike Li-Ion batteries. The problems start with weight and energy capacity. Less than 80kgs of Diesel will still get you and your 1.5-ton car from London to Edinburgh and back. 80kgs of any battery will hardly get you anywhere!
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I think he is looking for you to give him a burn up in one of your carsThis must be the third thread that you have mentioned your gas guzzlers in
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Funny you mentioned this place
A couple of years ago when they had serious power cuts the new lectric cars were useless
Lorries trains and cars the diesel engine is going to be here for a very long time . They may just add more technology to reduce the emissions even more
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If the car is charged up they would work the same...if the petrol/diesel car needs fuelling how will the pumps work at the petrol station with no electric?A couple of years ago when they had serious power cuts the new lectric cars were useless
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I'm not convinced this is the future of deliveries because it's just so impractical. It probably works for amazon deliveries in remote villages so they can get the same on-demand quick service as cities do but can you imagine how busy the skies become? A single Amazon Prime van would require about 20 drones in the sky just to cover the number of parcels that need to be delivered.
A good point, however, you can fill a car up by hand if you have the fuel in a jerry can already. Whereas it's a bit harder to generate the electricity needed to charge an electric car if the power is out.
So if it is out for a considerable amount of time for whatever reason there's still a not so difficult way to fuel a petrol/diesel vehicle.
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T
The Byre
I did say 'some areas' - just think of the hourly cost of a driver and his/her van. In country areas, the additional cost of finding some daft house called 'Mon Repos' or 'Glen View' can add £5 or more to the cost of delivery.
A central drone dispatch unit could be run by one or two people serving a huge area and run 20-50 drones and be used by several delivery services. Each landing pad could have the address printed on it and be in a secure area such as a balcony or back garden. The dispatch unit could be sending out drones at the rate of one every minute - or even more!
Each drone would be able to deliver one parcel every 20 minutes (5-20 mins there and back for a rural setting, plus waiting time at the depot) so 20 drones could easily deliver 20 parcels each - so up to 400 parcels in an eight-hour day!
If each drone with spare batteries costs £2,000, that is a capital cost of £40k - compare that to the cost of six vans with drivers doing overtime! Running and replacement costs, plus two wages and rental of about £500 a day, compared to at least £2,500 a day* for the six vans and capital costs of £120k.
Indeed, the whole issue of deliveries to houses and flats is one that needs urgent rethinking, if we are to have an online future. Either urban areas get secure deposit bins or they are made to pick up their stuff from a delivery point. And numbers on houses should be made both compulsory and logical and be added to the existing (and excellent IMO) post-code system.
* Probably more, by the time two of the drivers have had accidents, one is in hospital, insurance premiums skyrocket and we have to find somewhere to park the vans at night.
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Just had a great idea
If every house has a little drone pad with a pile of Prime deliveries. I just need an identical drone to retrieve delivered parcels - easier than being a porch pirate, less chance of getting caught
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The place i used to get my bikes MOT'd when I was a teenager (little tin barn round the back of a petrol station in a village with a deaf and blind tester) still did that about 15 yrs ago even though it was West Sussex !
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Ian seems to be keeping his head down, no mention of his 7 series beamer here!!
That's about the only BMW series that I have never owned. Current car is a Z4 which is anything but a gas guzzler as I get 35mpg around town and 45 on a run
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One of my early Saturday jobs was as 'pump assistant' just as self serve was coming in.
Specifically, the job was to hang around, keeping an eye on things and to help those who were uncomfortable serving themselves
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Ahh. Sorry. Misunderstanding on my part because you actually said 'some things' not 'some areas' and sort of implied that all light delivery vehicles could potentially be replaced by drones. If you did only mean rural/hard to reach areas etc then yes, I can totally get behind your reasoning and cost-saving argument there.
Regarding some sort of compulsory/logical post-code system though, yes, I completely agree. Although we already have systems in place that work we just don't seem to have any way to push one as a standard. I'm thinking 'Three Words' is a great easy to use system specifically.
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