Whereas capitalism is great because if you're wealthy you never run out of other people's money. :|Socialism is great, until you run out of other people’s money.
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Whereas capitalism is great because if you're wealthy you never run out of other people's money. :|Socialism is great, until you run out of other people’s money.
Sorry! :/No one is trying to do that. No one even suggested that capitalism was good. I think we have all agreed so far that neither capitalism nor socialism is really perfect, but us on the cap side reckon capitalism is the best of a bad bunch...
So here's a thought experiment: Consider a town with a particularly high level of homelessness (shouldn't be hard at the moment)... The State works out that long term it's more cost efficient to use up some of its housing stock to simply give to the homeless than to continue providing a portion of municipal services in support.
Isn't this similar to Thatcher's Right-to-buy scheme from the 80s?
30 years on that has been a huge contributor to a huge UK housing crisis. Capitalism, or Socialism, current decisions have impact 10, 20 or 30 years down the line.
Policies must be managed to be effective.
Right now in Europe, there are four working age adults for every person over 65. By 2050, this is expected to drop to only two working adults per person over 65.
The combination of the two may therefore result in a highly productive economy, but one where humans are dispensable in all but the most highly skilled jobs. The time-for-money model would fail, and capitalism as we know it would cease to function.
What then?
The big question is whether natural human progression means that socialism will become an inevitable requirement for highly developed nations.
Capitalism relies massively on the principle of people giving their time in exchange for money. More to the point, it relies on people being useful in some way.
That may not last forever. It's only a matter of time before robots, AI and automation become better (and cheaper) at many jobs than humans are. This has been claimed for decades, and many time estimations have been wrong, but it's inevitable nonetheless if we continue to progress as we currently are.
There's also the dependency ratio. Lifespans are getting longer, but working lifespans are not increasing at the same rate. That means the amount of dependent adults will increase relative to the amount of working adults to cause a greater welfare burden.
Right now in Europe, there are four working age adults for every person over 65. By 2050, this is expected to drop to only two working adults per person over 65.
The combination of the two may therefore result in a highly productive economy, but one where humans are dispensable in all but the most highly skilled jobs. The time-for-money model would fail, and capitalism as we know it would cease to function.
What then?
Housing crisis isn't down to right to buy, those houses usually are purchased and lived in by someone.
Allow to live rent free for as long as needed or until they can afford somewhere better? Yes
Allow to live rent free, when they are earning enough to pay reasonable rents? No
I'd extend this beyond homeless people and make available to all those working in medicine, education, military, etc who are earning low wages.
More cost effective, means lower taxes and incentives people to take on these roles.
Under the current thinking, which portrays the 'choice' of unemployment as fundamentally immoral, and resents anyone receiving money other than as a wage, we would have to cull the population.
You are correct, Scott. We have to rethink how things will work. Socialism is, of course, too binary to do that fully. But it seems a healthier start as it begins with the abandonment of the link between having money and having human value.
Lifespans are getting longer, but working lifespans are not increasing at the same rate.
we would have to cull the population.
Not sure that would be more cost effective, as every single individual would have to be continually assessed to determine when they are earning enough to pay reasonable rents, and the level of reasonable rents would have to be continually assessed as well.
But, the right-to-buy scheme, and the regulations under which it operated did distort the housing market. This has led to a massive shift away from professional housing stock management to management by less capable groups and individuals, and massive escalation in property value.
With something in excess of 6tn tied up in residential property in the UK any change in this market has impact on UK Ltd.
Assess once a year based on tax returns, (information we already have),
Assess once a year based on tax returns, (information we already have), back to rent free if they lose job.
Rent reviews annually / biannually, build lots of similar properties.
Not that hard.
We only have tax returns for a very small percentage of the population here. Not like in the USA where everyone does one.
The obvious answer already being implemented is increase the pension age. Those who want to retire early can do so, those who want to work later can do so - as has been the case for a while outside of government and council workers - and the state starts paying pension later and for longer.
There may be other options.
Lots of similar properties?
Like the council did with housing estates.
But what happens if AI and automation replace so many jobs that older people can't get a job even if they want to? It would be bad enough as it is for everyone else trying to find work.
This is the issue. Even with the world as it is today, there will be an ever-increasing percentage of the population dependent on the state, but eventually we'll start to include more and more people of normal working age as well.
Plus, even if your suggestion would work, increasing the pension age can only take us so far. When I say that the working lifespan is not increasing at the same rate, I mean the person's ability to work based on their mental and physical faculties. Just because a person lives an extra 10 years, it doesn't mean that age-related impairments are delayed by 10 years as well.
Yes, exactly like that, or the new apartments that are being built at Canary Wharf if you want a more upmarket example.
I don't know London. I'm usually somewhere down south, Manchester or Leicester or Hereford but not near enough to see London areas.
So far we've had automation / machinery taking jobs for a couple of centuries. What is the unemployment rate like currently? Pretty good?
People find other work.
OK can replace a driver of a vehicle, can you replace the ambulance crew working on an injured person?
Only because robotics and AI are currently fairly primitive compared to humans. It's catching up though, pretty darn quickly.
I don't think you're appreciating the scale of what could happen given enough time. Look at how far technology has come in the last 50 years. Now add another century or two to that. The ability of technology could blow our minds much in the same way an iPhone would appear almost alien-like if it was suddenly put in the hands of someone in the 1950s.
Drop a squadron of F-35s into World War Two and people really would think that aliens had arrived.
And then you have recent developments in artificial neural networks. Robotics and AI don't necessarily have to be programmed with tasks now. They can learn themselves by studying examples.
Of course. Given enough time, there's very little that would prevent that from happening. That sort of level is a long way off, but unless something happens that curtails human development, it's a case of when, not if.
In the interim, however, the bigger risk is what automation and AI can replace that's already on the horizon: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42170100
Retraining that many people, particularly when human-dependent jobs will require ever-increasing levels of skill and knowledge, is not going to be easy. And eventually, there will simply be too many people for too few jobs, no matter how hard they train.
I can appreciate the scale, some of my projects depend on the advance of tech.
The arguments about humans being replaced have been made since early in the industrial revolution.
I expect it will be a while before the care and human elements of some jobs are abolished.
Will a robot helping someone into bed be a viable cost effective alternative any time soon?
Sure for some of us there may be beds that adjust up and down, already capable of that - but cost effective compared to other methods? Like a hoist?
Not all tech improvements find their way immediately into every space they can occupy. The first motor cars (and first electric vehicles) were beyond the affordability of most people, horses were much cheaper.
Over time vehicles have improved such that horses aren't used as much. Still instances where horses are used and are better, despite over a century of motor vehicles, than using expensive motor vehicles are.
Tech takes time to become cost effective for more uses and to replace some processes. There's already robots capable of doing surgery on you - the cost to buy and maintain however and ability to deal with unexpected still favours the humans working on you in surgery for plenty of stuff. Expect changes there in next 20 years - for those able to afford it!
We seem to agree then. I've never suggested that this tech epidemic will happen any time soon. Merely that it will eventually, unless something happens to curtail it.
That being said, while I think some time predictions are very optimistic, I don't think we'll have to wait hundreds upon hundreds of years. I think the technological singularity is a possibility, where continuously self-improving artificial intelligence, getting better at improving itself with every version, could create a runaway chain reaction. An "intelligence explosion", if you will.
Currently, the progression of technology is limited by the human brain, which hasn't really changed much for thousands of years. The tipping point will be when (or some say, if) we create intelligence better than our own. If that happens, the seemingly impossible problems could fall like dominoes. Human intelligence could even become a drag on the progression of civilisation.
What a time to be alive, huh?
PS: Apologies for derailing the thread somewhat.
Pure socialism, in my mind, is an impossible thing to achieve because humans simply don't behave that way, and our existing systems make adoption, and weeding out corruption etc. near impossible. We've tried.
This is also the downfall of capitalism and free-market ideology. Human nature is the faulty component. We know, we've tried.Pure socialism, in my mind, is an impossible thing to achieve because humans simply don't behave that way, and our existing systems make adoption, and weeding out corruption etc. near impossible. We've tried.
Human nature is the faulty component
So what is your better alternative?
Put another way, let some people drive a Porche if they can. But those people should also pay to allow everyone else to be able to drive a very solid Toyota to get them where they need to go.
Ultimately, that's better for everyone, I think.
taxes as a way to curb economic inequality.
It's a good thing if someone is motivated to create a new product or disrupt a market and they want the rewards of being rich... they can have that... then we have systems which tax them fairly and subsidize programs (such as UBI) which make it so everyones standard of living is better.
Can you explain why someone who already paying more tax than the average person being made to pay even more tax is fair?
Can you also tell me when the word "Everyone" stopped mean all people and started to mean all poor people.
If you live/work in the UK, you are probably in the richest 1 or 2% globally.
Would you be happy to be taxed at 50 - 75% of your total income and this money sent to the poorest people in the world? - it would really change their lives.
Was Micheal Foot ex Lord Foot the last real socialist and before him Aneurin Bevan
I think there's a lot to be said about the idea of Universal Basic Income. Also healthcare for all, in addition to education for all.
You can weave in "socialist" concepts using a government framework and taxes as a way to curb economic inequality.
At the same time, allowing some of the benefits/incentives of our existing systems (competition, innovation) to remain in tact.
It's a good thing if someone is motivated to create a new product or disrupt a market and they want the rewards of being rich... they can have that... then we have systems which tax them fairly and subsidize programs (such as UBI) which make it so everyones standard of living is better.
Put another way, let some people drive a Porche if they can. But those people should also pay to allow everyone else to be able to drive a very solid Toyota to get them where they need to go.
Ultimately, that's better for everyone, I think.
"Fair" is a somewhat malleable term in this discussion, but consider these two aspects of "fairness":Can you explain why someone who already paying more tax than the average person being made to pay even more tax is fair?
If the outcome of a system allows people to suffer then the attribution of intended fairness is meaningless.Socialism aims for equality of outcome, which is not fair for anyone. Capitalism aims for equality of opportunity, which is fair for everyone.
@Cobby so why not use the more accurate word - more.
Rich people should pay more tax than poor people. They should pay more in real terms and they should pay more as a percentage. This is so that people can be supported by the state, when they cannot support themselves.
As rich people pay more tax, they should get benefits/incentives that are not available to lower rate tax payers. This could include the right to drive in bus lanes, park on double yellow lines, exclusive queues at passport control, etc
Rich people will benefit too, as the poorer people with have more to spend, money which will make it's way back to the rich people again.
See, much clearer and more honest than trying to reframe fair as meaning something else.