Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
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- Original Poster
- #3,843
All I see right now is a lot of people complaining about the deal but not coming up with an alternative other than leaving without one.
I'm not enamoured with the deal, but if we want to:
1). Leave without significant economic damage and disruption.
2). Provide a solution for a hard customs border where we can't have a hard customs border.
Then this is the kind of deal that's going to materialise. It was always heading towards this as there's no other way to do both.
And what May seems to realise, which a number of other MPs don't, is that the electorate is very unforgiving and not always fair. If she decides to leave without a deal, and then we see jobs being lost, wages shrinking and consumer costs rising, the people will start blaming the party in power. It doesn't matter if this outcome is due to the electorate's Brexit demands. That'll soon be forgotten and then everyone will be demanding answers.
She can't win. No one can. It's easy for politicians to talk the talk, but watch their opinions immediately soften if they end up being in charge.
I'm not enamoured with the deal, but if we want to:
1). Leave without significant economic damage and disruption.
2). Provide a solution for a hard customs border where we can't have a hard customs border.
Then this is the kind of deal that's going to materialise. It was always heading towards this as there's no other way to do both.
And what May seems to realise, which a number of other MPs don't, is that the electorate is very unforgiving and not always fair. If she decides to leave without a deal, and then we see jobs being lost, wages shrinking and consumer costs rising, the people will start blaming the party in power. It doesn't matter if this outcome is due to the electorate's Brexit demands. That'll soon be forgotten and then everyone will be demanding answers.
She can't win. No one can. It's easy for politicians to talk the talk, but watch their opinions immediately soften if they end up being in charge.
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No, sorry, I did gloss over your wording for that as it's buried in your efficacy argument, but that doesn't rebut my point.
Option one: Davis and Raab both took on the post knowing it was nothing but a title and were complicit in the pantomime of government incompetence.
Option two: Davis and Raab were unaware of the limits to their positions and were both extremely incompetent in their roles.
Well the government are proceeding with a course of action (that we can reasonably presume only a small percentage of the population actually wants) and they do it in the full knowledge of the harm it will cause, thereby failing to discharge their oaths (to act in the best interest of the nation and their constituents) as elected representatives.
So yes, it does raise a question of how we're governed but that's not new.
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The only benefits to leaving are, and always were, ephemeral. The losses are, and always were, clear. Anyone with half a brain knew that the EU would not allow us to leave and still keep the benefits of staying in, which is what the leave campaign said we would get. So we would always either leave with no deal or have a deal like the one that is now on the table that allows us the minimum of what we need while removing from us the benefits of having any say in the future of the EU.
Leave is only worth pursuing for those who believe in the 'governed by the unaccountable, unelected bureaucrats of Brussels' argument, which is why @KM-Tiger's comment is so ironic.
I take it that everyone noticed May's statement including 3 options - this deal, no deal or (for the first time) not leaving. My money is on not leaving.
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The most surprising aspect of this "Control" argument has been how hard the Brexiteers and government have worked to bypass Parliament in the proceedings or keep it in the dark as much as they can.
It shouldn't be a surprise that we get to the end of such an obfuscated process and discover that it's all been badly handled...
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My money is moving towards not leaving as well. Though nobody has yet worked out how that will be done. Who will write that letter to the EU? I cannot see Jeremy Corbyn doing it? I cannot see a Conservative Prime Minister doing it unless they get rid of May and elect an expendable nobody?
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Yes, not leaving is perhaps the best option (ie the status quo).
Leaving was always going to mean we have no say in the EU - that privilege is restricted to member states of course.
I'm betting on a general election being called this year. Though whether the Conservatives have a leader for that is more open...
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If we revert to democracy and there is a Parliamentary vote, for example, to ask that article 50 is suspended or withdrawn (doesn't matter which as it can always be re-issued) pending further consideration, then an unelected, unaccountable London bureaucrat can write the letter as it would be the will of Parliament.
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A bit of a feeble thing to do. Is there a prime minister who would let it happen under their watch, and also would the EU accept such a letter?
PS. They could always bring David Cameron back for a day to get him to do it.
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Jolyon Maugham QC has been fighting a case that would allow the ECJ to rule on whether or not the UK can unilaterally revoke/withdraw Article 50, i.e. withdraw notice to Leave without the consent of the EU27.
The government have been using taxpayer money to obstruct this case as they'd rather Parliament be left in the dark as to the choices available to it. They have just been denied appeal in their failed attempt to block it.
There's more here:
UK cannot stop article 50 case going to ECJ, says Scottish court
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...icle-50-case-going-to-ecj-says-scottish-court
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That's a very dangerous fantasy, to coin a phrase.
There is no 'status quo'. Ever closer union means what is says and just this week Macron and Merkel have been calling for an EU army, and Merkel for the formation of a superstate.
Bear in mind that the Lisbon treaty passes many competences, eg defence, criminal justice, foreign policy from nation states to the politburo, ie the commission. They have not yet done much in those areas, but they will. And because of QMV we would be able to do little about it.
Meanwhile the politburo has been meddling in Poland's internal affairs, and have rejected the budget of the democratically elected Italian govt.
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We are in the EU. Status quo doesn't mean things never change in the future, just we keep what we have now.
As for Poland and Italy - should they stick to agreements their governments make with the EU?
Or do agreements with the EU not count while staying in the EU?
Both want to do their own things without leaving the EU like we have.
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Thanks to our veto powers, we would never have been beholden to an EU army, this is another long-standing Brexit scare story; The Real Project Fear if you like.
The democratic institutions are sufficient to keep any single state from dictating and that should be pretty clear to you at this point given how Brexit is going.
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- Original Poster
- #3,860
Remember this?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35622105
We negotiated a legally binding clause that the UK would never be forced into further political integration.
We also negotiated a red card mechanism, where if 55% of member state parliaments agree, they could veto any commission proposal.
That would have been for the good of the UK, and arguably for the good of Europe, but we threw that away.
Shame really. With all the benefits of the single market, and all our existing opt-outs, and our rebate, and all those new reforms Cameron negotiated, we could have had unrivalled special status in a more democratic EU.
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Well it`s moving, albeit far slower than I ever excepted ;
As far as I`m aware there has long been a significant pro EU majority for the question "Do you think leaving the EU is s good idea", but less of a majority for "Do you think we should be leaving the EU". AFAIK that`s because the difference is people thinking we should leave anyway "because that`s what the people voted for". Personally I don`t buy that, my respect for the referendum result being about as low as the truth count on the Leave campaign. Basically people were voting for a fantasy "cake and eat it Brexit", which has never existed.
As far as I`m aware there has long been a significant pro EU majority for the question "Do you think leaving the EU is s good idea", but less of a majority for "Do you think we should be leaving the EU". AFAIK that`s because the difference is people thinking we should leave anyway "because that`s what the people voted for". Personally I don`t buy that, my respect for the referendum result being about as low as the truth count on the Leave campaign. Basically people were voting for a fantasy "cake and eat it Brexit", which has never existed.
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And it was only the Tory party that has ever been obsessed with Europe, at least until Cameron decided to make his spectacular political gamble :
Pity the BBC appear to think its both a Conservative and Labour issue then.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-15390884
Remember about 10 years ago the Lisbon Treaty was ratified? Not the Conservatives in power at the time.
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I`m not making any comment on how interested Politicians are, or were, in Europe. I`m stating that Joe Public really wasn`t that bothered about it, and Parliament is suoposed to represent the people. Cameron was quoted as saying Europe was a cancer in British politics as his justification for starting all this, but he is fundamentally wrong, it was purely a cancer at the heart of TORY politics.
I think it`s pretty nailed on that if someone did a poll "do you wish we`d never started all this Brexit stuff", it`d get way over 50%.
I think it`s pretty nailed on that if someone did a poll "do you wish we`d never started all this Brexit stuff", it`d get way over 50%.
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Parliament is made up of politicians.
You may not have been bothered by Europe, how many votes did UKIP get at its peak a few years back?
That's an indication that Europe meant something to sufficient voters that they decided to vote that party no?
Oh and by the way did you vote in the EU referendum Blair promised?
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- Original Poster
- #3,866
I spoke to someone today about Brexit and the referendum.
They were repeatedly talking about how there wasn't enough information made available for people to decide with. How there wasn't enough time to learn all the facts. And that there was far too much misinformation during the campaign.
Convinced I was talking to a remainer, I sarcastically asked "I assume you voted remain then?"
"No, I voted to leave" they replied.
Puzzled for a moment, I asked "But why did you vote leave if you believed everything you've just mentioned?"
"Well, I just wasn't given enough clear information, so I had to make a snap judgement."
"So if you voted again, would you vote remain this time?"
"I don't know."
Work that one out.
They were repeatedly talking about how there wasn't enough information made available for people to decide with. How there wasn't enough time to learn all the facts. And that there was far too much misinformation during the campaign.
Convinced I was talking to a remainer, I sarcastically asked "I assume you voted remain then?"
"No, I voted to leave" they replied.
Puzzled for a moment, I asked "But why did you vote leave if you believed everything you've just mentioned?"
"Well, I just wasn't given enough clear information, so I had to make a snap judgement."
"So if you voted again, would you vote remain this time?"
"I don't know."
Work that one out.
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Sheesh.
I worked out whether EU worked for me years prior to the referendum.
There was a lot of information given by both sides during run up to referendum, perhaps some people had information overload?
There was a ton of information already there, we've had decades of being part of a European body and we've had a number of years being part of the EU.
Snap judgement due to lack of information …. that's a new one.
So if we had another referendum in say 8 months time they'd quite likely still have to make a snap judgement and won't know in advance what way they will vote.
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I like puzzles.
My guess is that it’s a conversation that never happened.
However, it does back up your recurring argument of people that voted for Brexit didn’t really know what they were voting for, and they’re all a bit stupid.
194 pages and nothing is different from the first few pages.
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- Original Poster
- #3,869
This is the first time I've been accused of being "fake news". How exciting.
I'm just having a conversation about Brexit. Something that's interesting to discuss. This is not a competition to prove people right or wrong. Nor does it have any kind of objective, for that matter.
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It’s been - and continues to be - increasingly difficult to take any of these arguments seriously.
Very, very knowledgeable people equally polarised into their polar opposite opinions, predictions, judgments, and guesses. Because that’s what they are (in my opinion). None of them able to be honest and say that there may actually be an alternative reality other than the one they perceive. Ask one ‘expert businessman’ and he’ll say one thing, ask another ‘prominent figure’ and he’ll say another. No wonder everybody is confused, from those on here, right up to the highest office.
It’s funny, entertaining, and lots more besides!
Very, very knowledgeable people equally polarised into their polar opposite opinions, predictions, judgments, and guesses. Because that’s what they are (in my opinion). None of them able to be honest and say that there may actually be an alternative reality other than the one they perceive. Ask one ‘expert businessman’ and he’ll say one thing, ask another ‘prominent figure’ and he’ll say another. No wonder everybody is confused, from those on here, right up to the highest office.
It’s funny, entertaining, and lots more besides!
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No, it’s just human nature that’s funny. Always getting it wrong. Always taking, more and more until bybthe time they realise the hole they have in them cannot be filled by money they are nearly dead.
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Human humour often involves bad things. Comedy routines where someone gets hit, falls off something, gets caught in a ladder, embarrassment etc.
Tommy Cooper routines, how much did we laugh at him getting something wrong?
Buster Keaton routines.
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I've found the reverse; as evidence has mounted, it's much easier to take those arguments seriously. In my experience, apparent confusion from prominent figures can be correlated with a disregard for evidence.
What I find interesting (not really entertaining given the gravity of the situation) is, as the evidence has mounted, those still firmly in favour of Brexit have tried very hard to diminish the importance of facts, evidence and expert opinion. It's a bit like BBC coverage on climate change - they put on an expert who presents facts and data with someone who says, "I don't believe them"; to the BBC, and others wanting to believe in something despite the evidence, that's good balance so must obviously be more rational...
I'm curious, which arguments do you find hard to take seriously, and why?
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Why when we are larger by population than either Australia or Canada do we let a large trading partner interfere with our laws and sovereignty? Does Australia change its laws to suit the Chinese or course not.
If we need to surrender our sovereignty to the EU it is time to move on and take the hit and restructure the economy and the markets we operate in.
Short term pain for long term gain, currently through lack of business re-investment and corporate HQs moving staff abroad we are getting the worst deal and May is just kicking it into the long grass.
If we need to surrender our sovereignty to the EU it is time to move on and take the hit and restructure the economy and the markets we operate in.
Short term pain for long term gain, currently through lack of business re-investment and corporate HQs moving staff abroad we are getting the worst deal and May is just kicking it into the long grass.
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Was there anything in particular you told her to deal with?
It appears there is an agreement. Possibly lasting a couple of weeks, possibly one or more of the state bodies needing to agree it will reject it. Regardless of our UK parliament accepting it or not.
I am puzzled by what you think she has kicked into the long grass. Can you clarify your statement for the benefit of my understanding?
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Because we decided. some time ago, that it was a good idea and entered into a legally binding agreement to do so.
What sovereignty do you think we are going to surrender?
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Heck, next parliament may disagree with this parliament and withdraw from or change an agreement. Legally binding on this parliament or not.
Any takers on a general election process being started in the remainder of 2018?
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You'll be pleased to know we don't.
It's rather galling that every single time I have a conversation on this topic that ends in the phrase "Long term gain, short term pain" (or variations thereof) the people suggesting it fall into three categories:
1. those who have enough wealth to weather economic depression
2. those who have already lived most of their life in and benefited from a buoyant economy
3. those who do not understand what the impacts of Brexit currently are or will be
Usually, it is someone who falls into category 1 and 2.
As for May's deal, there is no version of Brexit that doesn't cause economic and social harm, so your ire is going to need a bit more focus.
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