What chains will be gone by the end of 2012

[Banned]

With retail chains going out of business on an almost daily basis who do you think will no longer be here come December 31st 2012?

Don't state the ones that have already publicly announced difficulties (anyone can do that!) such as Thomas Cook, Comet, Millets etc, but new ones to the "pot".

I'll kick off with three:-

Body Shop
WHSmith
Martin McColl Newsagents

 

[mhall]

I'm going with Clintons Cards and Homebase as easy starters, I think Maplins and anybody like DFS will struggle. Then I will go for any retailers with around ten shops - an easy hit as the Banks start to panic and withdraw overdraft facilities.

 

[silvermusic]

With retail chains going out of business on an almost daily basis who do you think will no longer be here come December 31st 2012?

Don't state the ones that have already publicly announced difficulties (anyone can do that!) such as Thomas Cook, Comet, Millets etc, but new ones to the "pot".

I'll kick off with three:-

Body Shop
WHSmith
Martin McColl Newsagents

I think you're way off the mark with WHSmith's. It may not be a very exciting chain, but it's pretty stable.

HMV sadly I can't see being around by this time next year. I think it'll be lucky to get past mid-year.

99p Stores: I predict will close a lot of branches, quite a few they have on rent free periods for 3 or 6 months as with the one in my home town. Can't see them ever making enough profit to cover the full normal costs after that period.

 

[papverpoppies]

Mother care are on shaky ground
Agree with WHS
Not sure which - but surely some of the mobile phone outlets will go, the market is saturated with them.
Clinton cards as suggested, again over saturated market, and their cards are expensive.
Basically all and sundry are vulnerable, as people cut back more and more.

Not bricks and mortar, but was reading that Amazon where selling 1 million kindles a week worldwide in the run up to Christmas, and yet their profits are still down (true, not enough to cause real worry) as they can with stand it, but it does show what precarious times we are in.


Pops ~xx~

 

[Chunkford]

Tescos & Amazon.... well.... there's some that would want that.

But if I had to guess:
Lush
Robert Dyas
Phones4u

BTW the misses says Next

 

[Doodle-Noodle]

I can't imagine the Pandora shops will last too long - the trend at the moment for charm beads won't last as there are too many much more affordable imitations available there's no real reason to spend a fortune buying the real thing. The shops are all in very expensive prime locations ...... by the end of this year they'll be history unless they can come up with another massive "must have" trend.

 

[papverpoppies]

I think you're way off the mark with WHSmith's. It may not be a very exciting chain, but it's pretty stable.

HMV sadly I can't see being around by this time next year. I think it'll be lucky to get past mid-year.

99p Stores: I predict will close a lot of branches, quite a few they have on rent free periods for 3 or 6 months as with the one in my home town. Can't see them ever making enough profit to cover the full normal costs after that period.

I seem to recall WHS announced earlier this year that things were shaky, and then this - this is how it tends to start, and I cannot see how sales are going to improve once Christmas and the Sales are over.

Look at their shops, they are basically run down (well my local one is) which is a good indication that things are not well.

Also, what do they sell - that you cannot get from elsewhere - nothing.
I wonder how much having the PO on some of their premises is helping them keep afloat, that is the only reason I ever go into WHS.

Pops ~xx~

 

[papverpoppies]

If all the shops mentioned here plus a few more close, high streets will become ghost towns - which will have on knock on effect for other stores, as people will not shop in them.

I feel sorry for any shop when it closes, as people lose their jobs, but I really feel for the independents, as they have no offer of any help or buy out.

Pops ~xx~

 

[Banned]

HMV - I'm sure I read/heard that it's only their sales and the fashion for headphones that has kept them going. I thinks it's a given they will be gone bar a miracle.

Clinton's - agree, why didn't I think of them!

Homebase maybe? But the demise of Focus could be their savour.

99p stores, well they'll eventually have to put their prices up or go bust Seriously though every few years a new pretender comes along to challenge Poundland and I can't think of one that's been serious competition to them.

Mothercare I agree with, lost it when they started moving to massive out of town retail parks.

Julian Graves anyone?

 

[toastking]

There really needs to be something done in order to regenerate interest, but what that something is seems to be completely beyond anybody!

It seems little pockets do well, but generally towns are falling and shops are getting emptier.

I would put good money on at least 2 or 3 of the aforementioned going under this year, which is not good news.

 

[Barnie]

body shop is a pretty solid business with good margins, its also owned by loreal, cant see it going anywhere.


along with ones mentioned

comet could go this year,

matalan another

jjb keeps bumping along the bottom

 

[Banned]

Look at their shops, they are basically run down (well my local one is) which is a good indication that things are not well.

Also, what do they sell - that you cannot get from elsewhere - nothing.

Pops ~xx~

Exactly my thoughts, I've not been in one for a year or so and over the past week have been in a couple (200 odd miles apart) and found the same - run down and seriously shoddy displays.

 

[silvermusic]

body shop is a pretty solid business with good margins, its also owned by loreal, cant see it going anywhere.


along with ones mentioned

comet could go this year,

matalan another

jjb keeps bumping along the bottom

I'm surprised they keep pumping money into JJB Sports, flogging a dead horse against the likes of SportsDirect.com.

As for WHSmiths, still can't see anything that's cause for real alarm, sure they're finding it tough like everyone else and may well close a few stores in some areas and open new ones in others, every chain of any size does this naturally anyway.

 

[AndyBlue]

My views :

WHS I believe is actually a good business and can't see that going anywhere and will probably benefit from lots of Birthdays/Clintons closing.
JJB can't believe they are still with us, they have very little stock and it is much of a muchness probably can't get credit so they will go for definite.
Basically anyone that is highly leveraged, so has had a Venture Capitalist sale in the last 3/5 years must be on shaky ground - Game/HMV/Millets as they just won't be able to drive the cashflow to meet interest payments and will breach their banking convenents. There will also be loads of branches of the likes of Carpetright/Dreams/Harveys etc all be closed down as people will just put off those purchases another year. Homebase is a really good 'tip' and watch for a number of argos's closing aswell.

 

[papverpoppies]

Interestingly enough, before Past Times made its announcement my local shop was getting an outside make-over, (and a friend told me like wise) of hers.

At first I thought, all the signals, change in stock, always sales on, less stock in shop, did not mean they were struggling.

Wrong!
So keep an eye out for shops that are being given the once over
It could signal the writing is on the wall - and they are sprucing up for potential 'buyouts'!

Pops ~xx~

 

[Geoff T]

hawkins bazaar and parent went into admin today - what will we do for "quality presents"?

Barretts also on the news as I type!

 

[AndyBlue]

Thats three chains that are likely to go since this thread started - can I suggest the title is changed to 'Which chains will still be here in 2013 ?' I knew they were predicted a bloodbath but this is looking bad.

 

[papverpoppies]

Does seeming to be a good solid business signify anyone is safe.

Look at what WHS sell, not saying they are or will - but they are in a very competitive market not only from BM but also online.

Sure mine is always busy, but for a newspaper, magazine, bar of choccie, hardly earth shattering sales - yes at one time, all considered good sales, but surely not any more

BHS are an old fashioned and dated store, they have got to be a possibility.
Did I not read something about Argos have been finding it hard, another 'had it time' store.

Pops ~xx~

 

[Banned]

I'll stick with WHSmith, and keep in mind that a vast percentage of their profits come their wholesale newspaper business rather than the shops.

 

[papverpoppies]

hawkins bazaar and parent went into admin today - what will we do for "quality presents"?

Barretts also on the news as I type!

Make them
You watched Blue Peter

Pops ~xx~

 

[Banned]

can I suggest the title is changed to 'Which chains will still be here in 2013 ?' I knew they were predicted a bloodbath but this is looking bad.

Crossed my mind. But it's very easy to predict Tesco, Sainsbury's, Boots and Next.

 

[captaincloser]

This thread is like a day out at the guillotene. It's a shame you guys are unable to clap and throw your hats in the air online.

Human nature is very perverse that's for sure.

 

[Deleted member 59730]

I'm going with Clintons Cards and Homebase as easy starters,

As a Clintons supplier I'm hoping they will pull through. Things in their favour; A new CEO is only 2 months in the job after years of no change, The bank is still backing them for another 2 years, They are paying on time and faster than some other chains, they have huge potential for shop revamps.

Compared to WHS Clintons head office is organised well and on the ball.

 

[Banned]

This thread is like a day out at the guillotene. It's a shame you guys are unable to clap and throw your hats in the air online.

Human nature is very perverse that's for sure.

See thread above yours

Also, and I can't stand football, it's no different to predicting what football teams will be demoted this year, is it?

 

[AndyBlue]

Does seeming to be a good solid business signify anyone is safe.

Look at what WHS sell, not saying they are or will - but they are in a very competitive market not only from BM but also online.

Sure mine is always busy, but for a newspaper, magazine, bar of choccie, hardly earth shattering sales - yes at one time, all considered good sales, but surely not any more

BHS are an old fashioned and dated store, they have got to be a possibility.
Did I not read something about Argos have been finding it hard, another 'had it time' store.

Pops ~xx~

BHS are owned by Philip Green and have no debt, they have announced they may close some stores but will be fine. Argos on the other hand are in debt to their eyeballs and are in big trouble as sales are way down on last year, and if i remember rightly have announced plans to close stores - but will survive as a chain but are owned by the same people as Homebase and are venture capitalist so again high interest payments.

 

[talkinpeace]

WH Smiths : not been in one for a year after three abortive visits where they did not sell what I needed
Clintons : ditto - the Oxfam cards are dear but better cause and MUCH funnier
Hawkin : like Past Times will survive by closing a lot of stores and ramping up the website (which of course is what Hawkin did for the first 20 years)

any furniture chain

Maplins : rock solid. Geekerama. They may close a few high street stores but their older ones are doing just fine

cosmetics : not my thing but daughter buys on the web or at Boots mostly

and utterly agree about any business that had a leveraged buyout in the last 5 years. The Private Equity sharks need to offload what is left after they extracted their fees.

 

[captaincloser]

Also, and I can't stand football, it's no different to predicting what football teams will be demoted this year, is it?

That could be Bolton, Blackburn and Wigan..as things stand.

You are correct except that in Football the demoted have a chance of coming back one day !

 

[Banned]

That could be Bolton, Blackburn and Wigan..as things stand.

You are correct except that in Football the demoted have a chance of coming back one day !

OK then it's the same as debating which music acts are going to be dropped by their label this year. In as much as someone else can buy the "brand" if they think it has legs, otherwise they are finished

 

[toastking]

It's not really though is it, as lots of people will lose their jobs, leading to less money in the economy and less people with disposable incomes to spend. Whilst it would make relatively little difference to the world if Bolton or QPR go down this year beyond a few thousand annoyed supporters, the impact of someone like WHSmith going down would have a huge impact directly and indirectly.

That said... the thread seems to be here to point out some businesses with flaws that could be in trouble rather than attacking anyone whilst they are down?

 

[Banned]

That said... the thread seems to be here to point out some businesses with flaws that could be in trouble rather than attacking anyone whilst they are down?

Thanks, that's the point. It's not personal or gloating, it's a discussion that is obviously of interest to retailers for a variety of reasons. And if us little guys can learn by the downfall and/or mistakes of the "great and good" then all the better. I don't think anyone is saying "great 20,000 people have lost their jobs". Let's take the individual issues out of this and look at the businesses as businesses.

And we can resurrect this thread in twelve months and see I, sorry who, was right

 

[Barnie]

whilst all we here of is closing, going bust, gone into administration etc there are a fair few brands coming up right behind to fill some of the gaps.

get ready to see branded shops instead of brand retailers.

Lego
North face
Vans
superdry/cult
Dr Martins
American Apparel

plus a load more mass designer brands opening stores. the announcement that price setting (fixing) may be uplifted may mean new electrical stores on the highstreet

granted its not going to fill the hole overnight, but those saying the highstreet is doomed when its not, its changing which takes more time

 

[talkinpeace]

Lego : no - their restructuring 5 years ago has worked a treat - they are an essential part of every parents christmas and birthday shopping list
Dr Martins : No - their core market is still safety wear. THey do fine on that

other brands - cannot comment : I hate buying clothes
but a family member who is very well informed on retail rents expects a bloodbath over the next year
I have no reason to disagree with him

we have been importing China and India's river systems for the last 15 years (literally)
Those rivers are now running dry
there are no more "emerging" markets
cheap retail goods were an anomaly that we will have to relearn to live without

 

[Barnie]

Lego : no - their restructuring 5 years ago has worked a treat - they are an essential part of every parents christmas and birthday shopping list
Dr Martins : No - their core market is still safety wear. THey do fine on that

i wasnt adding them to the dooms list i was pointed out they were actualy opening stores

 

[Chunkford]

Lego : no - their restructuring 5 years ago has worked a treat - they are an essential part of every parents christmas and birthday shopping list

I was father Xmas at my local primary school and I can vouch that pretty much every kid wanted some form of Lego product for Xmas.

 

[Geoff T]

Thanks, that's the point. It's not personal or gloating, it's a discussion that is obviously of interest to retailers for a variety of reasons. And if us little guys can learn by the downfall and/or mistakes of the "great and good" then all the better.

That's easy... general rules of thumb to stay operational...

1. Avoid the Banks (don't borrow, finance, or grow on other people's money - it costs)

2. Avoid Landlords (they want their rents, regardless - and the more prestigious the location, the costlier it gets...)


That's the first 2 - and most obvious ones...


Yes it means the "high street" has had it's day - but that's not news is it? (not that I like the idea mind...).

As for the banks - until the govt introduces a fair "peoples bank" that provides and protects FOR THE PEOPLE (and ignores profit margins and/or dividends) then nothing will change - either for us, nor those who come after...

 

[papverpoppies]

It's not really though is it, as lots of people will lose their jobs, leading to less money in the economy and less people with disposable incomes to spend. Whilst it would make relatively little difference to the world if Bolton or QPR go down this year beyond a few thousand annoyed supporters, the impact of someone like WHSmith going down would have a huge impact directly and indirectly.

That said... the thread seems to be here to point out some businesses with flaws that could be in trouble rather than attacking anyone whilst they are down?

We are not attacking or waving arms in the air shouting whoopee.
The people who are attacking them, are the Government, Landlords, Banks and Councils.
They are the ones who have signalled these and other companies downfall.
So, why is discussing it, wrong (not aimed at toastking)

Its happening, should we just pretend it is not happening, bit like David is doing.

Talking about things is 'life' maybe if some of the CEO of these companies, had asked the public what they want/wanted they would not be on the verge of going down the pan.

Sorry and all that, but you cannot shut the door on reality, simply by not talking about it - does not mean it will not happen.

Pops ~xx~

 

[silvermusic]

I seem to recall WHS announced earlier this year that things were shaky, and then this - this is how it tends to start, and I cannot see how sales are going to improve once Christmas and the Sales are over.

Look at their shops, they are basically run down (well my local one is) which is a good indication that things are not well.

Also, what do they sell - that you cannot get from elsewhere - nothing.
I wonder how much having the PO on some of their premises is helping them keep afloat, that is the only reason I ever go into WHS.

Pops ~xx~

Well I've been in 3 different WHSmiths within the last few weeks and I can't say any of them looked run down by any stretch of the imagination. No doubt like any chain they have one's long overdue for a refit that get forgotton or pushed to the back of the queue as new flagship stores open.

While what they sell might be boring and run of the mill that can be got anywhere, they do seem to have their eye on the ball, dumping DVD's and CDs due to little or no margin being one example. As with any retailer in the high street there's very few where the same goods can't be bought. It's certainly not a star performer, but it's steady, every retailer at the moment is finding it tough going in the high street, there are few that are bucking that trend and those that are are either doing something very right or are on borrowed time until a competitor duplicates whatever they're doing.

 

[papverpoppies]

Well I've been in 3 different WHSmiths within the last few weeks and I can't say any of them looked run down by any stretch of the imagination. No doubt like any chain they have one's long overdue for a refit that get forgotton or pushed to the back of the queue as new flagship stores open.

While what they sell might be boring and run of the mill that can be got anywhere, they do seem to have their eye on the ball, dumping DVD's and CDs due to little or no margin being one example. As with any retailer in the high street there's very few where the same goods can't be bought. It's certainly not a star performer, but it's steady, every retailer at the moment is finding it tough going in the high street, there are few that are bucking that trend and those that are are either doing something very right or are on borrowed time until a competitor duplicates whatever they're doing.

WHS

That is a lot to make up in troubled times.
Hope they do..

Pops ~xx~

 

[silvermusic]

HMV - I'm sure I read/heard that it's only their sales and the fashion for headphones that has kept them going. I thinks it's a given they will be gone bar a miracle.


99p stores, well they'll eventually have to put their prices up or go bust Seriously though every few years a new pretender comes along to challenge Poundland and I can't think of one that's been serious competition to them.

Julian Graves anyone?

With regards to HMV's change of direction, it's clutching at straws. Selling media DVD/CD/Games in the high street isn't a viable option for anyone any more, They're the last man standing and still can't make it work. Sales of this stuff is only viable online due to rediculous low margins and don't even start me off on those shipping stuff out of the channel islands VAT free. Pity the government didn't close that loophole a decade ago... but that's a whole story in it's own right, too little too late for the industry.

Over-priced electronics and accesories isn't going to be the miracle to save them either, there's too many others doing it far better. They've sold off waterstones, and made a loss for a long while, as for their share price it hasn't got far to go to dissapear, 3.5p I think it was this morning, which is a fraction of what it was two years ago.

I agree with Poundland, they'll see off many competitors, what they do they do very well. 99p stores on the other hand are expanding way too fast and what they have in their shops is nothing special. Lots of food products that really make no sense when most people do their food shopping in supermarkets, esspecially as price wise they're nothing wonderful..... so I'm told by my other half.

 

[talkinpeace]

The problem in many of the high street outlets is a mismatch between front of house and back of house.

Any business that was involved in a leveraged buyout has some mega rich bods who have taken huge fees out and left the business with debts that related to a cack handed due diligence in 2006, not to a long term business model

too many businesses fell for the sale and leaseback model (Southern Cross)
or the PFI model
and have handed ownership of what were once freeholds to other companies who look at you as a cash cow not a long term relationship

the pubcos are the classic - they cannot see that they are cutting off their noses to spite their faces
once the corner pub is a historic thing (like the corner baker) their portfolios will be worth less than the paper they are printed on

sadly I come back to my core (voiced on many sites) argument
there should be limits on the tax deductibility of interest

CERTAINLY an upper limit to create a negative balance sheet
and almost certainly a limit on reducing the CT from main rate to lower rate
and definitely a balance sheet limit on cross border interest

that will still allow borrowing for growth
but will limit leverage for houses in the Bahamas