The Chancellor will announce his medium-term fiscal plan, along with official forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, on 31st October.
It comes on the heels of a period of political turmoil, which saw Liz Truss resign after just 44 days as prime minister. It’s unclear who will take her place, but we expect Jeremy Hunt to deliver the statement as planned.
Hunt gave a statement to the media on 17th October that effectively ripped up Truss’s plan, saying the government will no longer go ahead with:
However, Jeremy Hunt has announced he won’t run in the leadership race and UKBF believe he will remain in place once the new prime minister is appointed.
“Whatever the new prime minister’s opinion or desires, it would be too damaging to the markets and the party reputation to replace Jeremy Hunt,” said UKBF founder Richard Osborne. “So, Hunt is safe in his seat and I believe safe for the duration of the remaining term.”
If only one candidate reaches that threshold, the campaign is over and the winner will be announced. If more than one is backed by more than 100 MPs, the top two will be put to Conservative Party members in an online vote, with the winner announced on Friday 28th October.
Sunak highlights his career in business on his website:
“I have been fortunate to enjoy a successful business career. I co-founded a large investment firm, working with companies from Silicon Valley to Bangalore. Then I used that experience to help small and entrepreneurial British companies grow successfully.
“From working in my mum’s tiny chemist shop to my experience building large businesses, I have seen first-hand how politicians should support free enterprise and innovation to ensure our future prosperity,” he said.
We can expect remaining EU laws to be scrapped, a long-term plan to beat inflation and encouraging investment to boost growth, based on the plan announced in his previous leadership campaign.
“One person was elected by the British public with a manifesto and a mandate until January ‘25.
If Liz Truss is no longer PM there can be no coronation of previously failed candidates,” she said.
Johnson is still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for comments about parties that happened in Downing Street during lockdown. It has the potential to recommend suspending him from the “service of the House for a specified period or expulsion”.
If made PM, Johnson is likely to return to the Conservatives’ original manifesto, aiming to control immigration and investing in apprenticeships and infrastructure.
It comes on the heels of a period of political turmoil, which saw Liz Truss resign after just 44 days as prime minister. It’s unclear who will take her place, but we expect Jeremy Hunt to deliver the statement as planned.
Jeremy Hunt’s initial statement
Given the pressures from the market, the recently appointed Chancellor brought forward policies that would have been announced on 31st October.Hunt gave a statement to the media on 17th October that effectively ripped up Truss’s plan, saying the government will no longer go ahead with:
- A 1.25% cut in the dividend tax rate
- The reversal of off-payroll working reforms (IR35 rules) introduced in 2017 and 2021
- VAT-free shopping scheme for non-UK tourists
- The freeze on alcohol duty changes
What to expect from the Halloween Budget
The government’s medium-term fiscal plan is expected to be announced on 31st October. By then we’ll have a new prime minister and potentially a new Chancellor.However, Jeremy Hunt has announced he won’t run in the leadership race and UKBF believe he will remain in place once the new prime minister is appointed.
“Whatever the new prime minister’s opinion or desires, it would be too damaging to the markets and the party reputation to replace Jeremy Hunt,” said UKBF founder Richard Osborne. “So, Hunt is safe in his seat and I believe safe for the duration of the remaining term.”
What impact is the new prime minister likely to have?
Nominations for the new prime minister close at 2 pm on Monday. Candidates need to be backed by at least 100 MPs to enter the race.If only one candidate reaches that threshold, the campaign is over and the winner will be announced. If more than one is backed by more than 100 MPs, the top two will be put to Conservative Party members in an online vote, with the winner announced on Friday 28th October.
Rishi Sunak
At time of writing, Rishi Sunak is odds-on favourite to be the UK’s next prime minister. He lost out to Liz Truss last time, but a number of his comments in the leadership race have proven very astute.Sunak highlights his career in business on his website:
“I have been fortunate to enjoy a successful business career. I co-founded a large investment firm, working with companies from Silicon Valley to Bangalore. Then I used that experience to help small and entrepreneurial British companies grow successfully.
“From working in my mum’s tiny chemist shop to my experience building large businesses, I have seen first-hand how politicians should support free enterprise and innovation to ensure our future prosperity,” he said.
We can expect remaining EU laws to be scrapped, a long-term plan to beat inflation and encouraging investment to boost growth, based on the plan announced in his previous leadership campaign.
Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson is second in the running. He still has many supporters in the Tory party and is popular with the public in spite of his run as prime minister coming to a calamitous end. After Truss stepped down, Conservative MP Nadine Dorries took to Twitter to back him:“One person was elected by the British public with a manifesto and a mandate until January ‘25.
If Liz Truss is no longer PM there can be no coronation of previously failed candidates,” she said.
Johnson is still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for comments about parties that happened in Downing Street during lockdown. It has the potential to recommend suspending him from the “service of the House for a specified period or expulsion”.
If made PM, Johnson is likely to return to the Conservatives’ original manifesto, aiming to control immigration and investing in apprenticeships and infrastructure.
