Will Scottish independence help or hinder Scottish business?

Discussion in 'Scotland' started by The Byre, Sep 11, 2013.

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  1. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    To me, it really depends. The SNP seem to believe that they can become independent and also keep the pound and keep the Bank of England in control of their currency. The UK's current government believes that this is unlikely to happen and makes no sense.

    If Scotland vote yes and have to create their own currency, then I suspect it will have an impact on Scottish business, especially in the short-term as the transition is made.
     
    Posted: Dec 12, 2013 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
    #81
  2. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Unfortunately Britain would be better off without BAE,not to mention the rest of the world.

    As the taxpayer is UK BAE;s largest customer by far,its time we stopped supporting the stupidity of such companies.
     
    Posted: Dec 12, 2013 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
    #82
  3. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    The chances of Scotland not having a currency union with rUK are remote indeed because -

    1. Scotland would then no longer be a party to - or part owner of - the Bank of England and that would mean that rUK would have to pick up the c.a. £112 billion national debt that Scotland would have otherwise inherited.

    2. Scotland could just keep the Scottish pounds that it uses today and maintain parity with the rUK pound (as Ireland did from 1916 to 1978).

    3. If the Bank of England had to take on an extra £112 billion in national debt, there would be a very real chance of a massive depression, possibly with serious inflation as the bank would have to print away and inflate away that extra debt. Both sides know this and I personally doubt that a Westminster government would be prepared to sink the country into a depression, just to make a point.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
    #83
  4. GeorgeM

    GeorgeM UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    I know its late in the day to be posing this question, but - 'what was the level of demand for Scottish Independence amongst Scottish voters before the referendum was called ?'

    I was not aware of such a clamour or people holding demonstrations in the streets ?

    Just because the SNP was elected to the Scottish Government was not sufficent reason to hold such a referendum. They were after all elected to govern under the UK constitution. So it seems like a case of using the office of Government to overthrow the state - isn't that called a coupe d'etat ?

    And even if a majority vote Yes to independence, there is no guarantee that a stable state will result - it could in fact lead to major political upheavals, and even civil unrest. Be careful what you vote for.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: GeorgeM Member since: Oct 4, 2007
    #84
  5. Banksbroo

    Banksbroo UKBF Regular Free Member

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    It is in the interests of the rest of Britain to have a currency union with Scotland - a Britain with much diminished oil, gas reserves would see it's currency weakened.

    As for the EC and a independent Scotland, would the rest of the EU rather see its oil and gas come from Scotland as an EU member or Russia?

    Most of the new oil and gas fields are West of Shetland. Oil companies are investing upwards of £3.3bn in infrastructure in this area, including a £800m gas plant in Shetland. Having 20-30 years breathing space in terms of income and energy security gives a country a lot of leeway!

    It's anybodys guess how Shetland will vote in the referendum, but a recent public debate saw the sitting MP - LibDem (and Secretary of State for Scotland) Alister Charmichael defeated 70 to 48. A surprise result since traditionally Shetland votes heavily in favour of Lib dems.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: Banksbroo Member since: Nov 7, 2008
    #85
  6. Nuno

    Nuno UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    Really? Adding £112bn to the current debt of £1185bn would be enough to launch a depression?
    By 2012 Quantitative Easing had cost about £375bn, on top of the £340bn in asset purchases by the BoE in 2009/10.
    So, in my opinion £112bn is a large and uncomfortable debt to be landed with but not necessarily a cause of a depression and/or stagflation.

    This of course presumes that Scotland would be able to offload all it's debt for this one reason, and the debt would not be part of a wider negotiation. I would suggest that an attempt to shed the debt would lead, at the very least, to a fairly unfavorable credit rating for the new Scotland, and this alone makes the debt shedding scenario unlikely.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: Nuno Member since: Oct 10, 2011
    #86
  7. fisicx

    fisicx It's Major Clanger! Staff Member

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    If Scotland ofloads the debt they will be seen as a poor risk and struggle to get finance. Every government needs to borrow money (to pay for things before the taxes are paid), dumping the debt increases the risk score which means crtedit rating goes down and the cost of borrowing goes up.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: fisicx Member since: Sep 12, 2006
    #87
  8. GeorgeM

    GeorgeM UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    My feeling is that this independence move has all the hallmarks of turning into a political and economic mess - thought up purely to further the careers of politicians, but lacking any real underlying desire from Scottish people as a whole. They might not have asked for it, but they could well inherit the mess that results.

    And, when the mess occurs, the voters will then turn round and blame the policticians and each other and serious mayhem will be the outcome.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: GeorgeM Member since: Oct 4, 2007
    #88
  9. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    It doesn't mean that the UK would have to pick up Scotland's share of the national debt. Why do you presume that Scotland could just wash its hands of the debt with no ramifications? As Nuno said, it's likely to be part of a wider negotiation, and attempting to just shed the debt entirely would damage their credit rating and heap more pressure on the fragility of a brand new country.

    Existing countries can't just delete billions of pounds of debt and pretend it never existed, and neither can Scotland. If they split, they share the good and the bad.

    In-terms of currency sharing, it isn't really a wise idea for the UK to do that. It means that we essentially lose full control of the pound and put partial control of it in the hands of a different country, so if Scotland ever have an economic crash or occur any other sort of financial damage, then the pound is damaged as well.

    The same can also be said in reverse. Despite voting for independence, Scotland's economic health would still be heavily influenced by the UK as they let the Bank of England run their currency.

    We wouldn't let countries like France or Spain share the pound, so I don't know why people automatically assume that we'd let Scotland do it as well. A vote for independence is just that - independence. The only connection from that point forward is a border and a considerable amount of trade.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
    #89
  10. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Why should Scotland oick up the bill for parliaments negligence and corruption when they had no say in it.

    26 billion Olympics,concorde,HS2 ,The banking bailout and hundreds of more ridiculous schemes to feather their mates pockets.

    Uk debt 1.6 trillion.

    Scotland share estimated at 40 billion or a weeks oil production.;)
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
    #90
  11. Nuno

    Nuno UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: Nuno Member since: Oct 10, 2011
    #91
  12. MASSEY

    MASSEY UKBF Legend Full Member

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    Aren't 58 of them conservatives? :D
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: MASSEY Member since: Nov 29, 2009
    #92
  13. Scalloway

    Scalloway UKBF Legend Free Member

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    There are more pandas in Scotland than conservative MPs. 1 conservative MP, 41 labour, 11 lib dems and 6 SNP.

    There are 2 pandas.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: Scalloway Member since: Jun 6, 2010
    #93
  14. MASSEY

    MASSEY UKBF Legend Full Member

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    My bad. I read an article on the independent.co.uk wrong.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: MASSEY Member since: Nov 29, 2009
    #94
  15. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    There are 650 MP's looks like a minority to me,plus none of them went to Eton or Rugby.

    So no power then ;)
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
    #95
  16. Nuno

    Nuno UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    Stuck on stoopid again.
     
    Posted: Apr 16, 2014 By: Nuno Member since: Oct 10, 2011
    #96
  17. YrHenOgledd

    YrHenOgledd UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    Going back to the original topic (I think ... ;))

    I run a freelance business from the Borders, but I originally created my Ltd as an English company. If Scotland becomes independent, then I think the only sane thing for me to do would be to close down the English Ltd and basically phoenix it as a Scottish one.

    It's a hassle, but I don't fancy having a English Limited run entirely from Scotland and therefore having to do my Corp. Tax, VAT, payroll etc. twice, since I'll be subject to the tender affections of not one but two entirely separate tax authorities.

    What do you all think? Am I being too pessimistic?
     
    Posted: Apr 19, 2014 By: YrHenOgledd Member since: Jan 10, 2013
    #97
  18. KM-Tiger

    KM-Tiger UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    The Scottish Labour MPs are the difference between the Labour party being able to form a govt or not. I call that a hell of a lot of power!
     
    Posted: Apr 19, 2014 By: KM-Tiger Member since: Aug 10, 2003
    #98
  19. Nuno

    Nuno UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    Keeping Labour out and the possiblity that stamps will be cheaper makes a 'yes' vote worth hoping for....
     
    Posted: Apr 19, 2014 By: Nuno Member since: Oct 10, 2011
    #99
  20. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Posted: Apr 19, 2014 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
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