Was Sweden may have been right after all ?

Discussion in 'COVID-19 Forum' started by Justin Smith, Jul 26, 2020.

  1. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Has anyone seen this :

    [​IMG]

    Do they realise how significant it is ?
    Remember, Sweden has never had a lockdown (BBC News link).......

    I have said right from the beginning I thought Sweden was right and we were wrong, though I thought it might take a few years to prove it. At first I concluded their strategy was correct because I thought the social and economic cost of the lockdown was too high, but increasingly,as more evidence comes to light, I think it has been of dubious benefit for its intended purpose of keeping the Covid death toll down. And that's before factoring in all the deaths that are being (and will be) caused by it.
    Time will tell, for sure I mean.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
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  2. JEREMY HAWKE

    JEREMY HAWKE UKBF Legend Full Member

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    Justin The cost of our lockdown has yet to be seen
    The sweds don't get things wrong very often
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: JEREMY HAWKE Member since: Mar 4, 2008
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  3. mattk

    mattk UKBF Newcomer Free Member

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    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: mattk Member since: Dec 5, 2005
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  4. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    There's proven to be very little economic difference or benefit to what Sweden did compared to places like Denmark next to them

    The major difference between the countries was Denmark imposed lockdowns whereas Sweden encouraged their population to social distance without imposing lockdown

    Something the Swedes proved to be very good and disciplined at

    But end result of lockdown imposed and social distancing encouraged was that overall spend in Denmark and Sweden reduced by 25 per cent to 30 per cent in both places

    Many in Sweden who were scared of the lack of lockdown just self imposed lockdown anyway those that did go out did so less often and very cautiously. They were all very careful about what they did and didn't do

    Which kind of shows that just because things are allowed to remain open - people don't flock to go to those places.

    Hope that makes sense. Sweden didn't impose lockdown on its people but they ended up with similar self imposed spending losses to the economy - just in a different way

    And sadly more deaths at the same time

    They've not gained any herd immunity benefits as many of their citizens were either very careful when out and about and/or stopped going out and socialising full stop of their own choice

    And the final interesting thing is that the cautious habits in Sweden have continued and that now that the rest of Europe has released lockdown the Swedes haven't really changed - they are all more cautious than the rest of us and that isn't helping their economy rebound

    All very interesting stuff about what people do when they have choices compared to what they do when they don't have choices
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  5. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    So they've had the economic impact of lockdown. Just in a different way. I would trust Swedes to be cautious and disciplined. God help us if we allowed such personal choice and asked for similar self discipline in UK.

    But there's no point pretending they werent effectively and economically in lockdown - the same as the rest of us. Their spending went down the same as the rest of us.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2020
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  6. Bob Morgan

    Bob Morgan UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    I can't really forgive Sweden for selling Volvo out to Ford (Now Chinese), and GM when they destroyed SAAB! - Just a couple of occasions when they may have got it wrong
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Bob Morgan Member since: Apr 15, 2018
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  7. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    The UK equivalent of Swedens's graph, not much better, and at HUGE cost :

    [​IMG]
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
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  8. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    I think you seem to be imagining Sweden hasnt faced the same economic losses as the rest of us
    Justin - I think you are failing to grasp that Sweden's economy has faced the exact same drop in spending as its neighbouring countries

    Just because the shops and restaurants and bars weren't forced to close didn't stop people doing self imposed lockdown

    And they've continued to be more careful than us to this date

    Can you get your head round that?

    They've faced the same huge cost as the rest of us. Just that theirs was from self discipline and their population being extra careful when going out or not going out hardly at all

    Does that make sense?

    Their economy hasn't carried on anywhere near like normal?

    They didn't close stuff down. But their population stopped going out and spending much regardless.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  9. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    I disagree. Look at the death rate graphs of every country which has had significant exposure to Covid (as defined by 1 in 2000 to 1 in 1000 deaths), all have the same shape, and none have the much threatened "second spike".
    Either every single country has had an effective lockdown*, or these lockdowns have had relatively little effect on the death rate. I think it's the latter

    * against a highly infectious virus. No country in the world has achieved anywhere near the required 60% plus immunity (as defined by positive antibody tests) required for herd immunity. So the only possible explanations are either that the virus isn't actually that infectious and relatively mild social distancing (which almost every country has now adopted because their economies and societies cannot cope with hard lockdowns), or most people are not susceptible to the virus. The Diamond Princess Covid outbreak also supports these arguments.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
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  10. fisicx

    fisicx It's Major Clanger! Staff Member

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    On the other hand:

    https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/03/analysis-did-sweden-get-it-wrong

    Deaths per 100,000 is comparable to many other countries (eg: Sweden 55, Italy: 58, Spain 60)

    And Sweden is less of a social country than many others in Europe, they don't like crowds and prefer to stay at home rather than meet others. All of which suggests they self isolated without being being told to.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: fisicx Member since: Sep 12, 2006
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  11. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Not sure what your point is Justin?

    I thought you were saying this was proving you could beat Covid without huge economic and social cost?

    Whereas Sweden has still had the same economic and social cost as the rest of us?

    If you are just talking about death rates then that's a different debate altogether

    Here are some interesting stats:

    In the UK restaurants and pubs are now allowed to open

    Only 50 per cent have chosen to open

    And the ones that have chosen to open are reporting income is down 40 per cent on same weeks last year

    So despite only half the choice of places for people to eat or dine out - the places that have opened are still seeing a fraction of their previous business and income

    So lockdown or no lockdown - public choice means that spend goes down significnatly

    Exactly what happened in Sweden

    Their bars and restaurants never closed but people voted with their feet and stopped socialising like they did before

    Gyms have been complaining they can't open. I've read surveys where only 20 per cent of gym members want to go back in the gyms anyway?

    Lockdown or no lockdown. People make choices to stay safe.

    Complain about that all you want but you won't be able to change that.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2020
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  12. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    And even more so than normal.

    And they have continued to stay safe and not socialise as their good habits have stuck. Maybe that's something to learn from them. Stay careful ongoing rather than stop start like everywhere else

    It's a myth that Sweden hasn't been in lockdown - it's just that the people drove the lockdown rather than the Government

    Meanwhile the Government got too complacent there - especially in their Care Homes I believe
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  13. John Hemming

    John Hemming UKBF Regular Full Member

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    Many countries failed to protect care home residents which is where a lot of people died.

    We will not be able to compare death rates between countries until the impact of the virus has settled down. Looking at the USA, for example, the areas suffering a "second wave" are really those which didn't have a first wave before they locked down.

    The peak deaths in the UK were about the same time as those in Sweden and the evidence from that and hospital admissions was that the lockdown in the UK was too late to impact on the peak deaths and that other factors (including the limitation from disease resistance from infection aka herd immunity) limited the death rate in the UK (particularly urban areas of England, Scotland and NI). The Welsh hospital admission chart is quite different to that of England which could imply that the lockdown in Wales had more of an impact. However, it could also be that there is a difference in the way the figures are prepared.

    Sweden would have suffered economically from the virus as would the UK even if no-one in the country was infected. However, it appears that the level of economic damage is lesser and in any event Sweden knows from experience it does not need to introduce any more lockdowns.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: John Hemming Member since: May 23, 2019
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  14. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    So we're saying that the fact the Swede's are reputed to be less sociable hs stopped the spread of a highly infectious virus and, in fact, worked as well as a (temporary) lockdown ? Doesn't sound realistic to me, unless of course, the virus actually isn't anywhere near as infectious as we've been told which I can believe actually, since most of what we have been told has been wrong anyway. Where do you want me to start ?
    How about :
    "This virus is indiscriminate".
    Or
    "We'll have a second wave if we unwind the lockdown or reopen schools".
    What actually happened is the death rate kept dropping as fast as it did before....

    The government have done a very effective job of scaring the population (those who haven't actually researched it anyway) and it's now coming back to bite them on the bum as they try to get the country back to work, just as I said it would.

    But, to an extent, it's irrelevant anyway, the Swede's graph line is very similar to ours and Belgium's, and every other country which has had deep exposure to the virus.
    I'm still sticking to my theory that the lockdown / social distancing made little difference to the death rate, particularly if all the deaths caused by it are subtracted.
    We'll see who is right
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
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  15. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    The geographical makeup of the country is also different.
    Cannot quite see so many clicking to the beaches... Or having maskless protests.
    Did not notice much BLM protests there - perhaps reported in local news.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  16. Bob Morgan

    Bob Morgan UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    HERE WE GO AGAIN! - "Can we have the Budgies, Charlie?"
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Bob Morgan Member since: Apr 15, 2018
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  17. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Death rate follows the virus by weeks or months. Not just a day.

    Have a look at Spain or the US for post lockdown infection in particular places.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  18. ecommerce84

    ecommerce84 UKBF Regular Free Member

    799 263
    Really?

    Other than 1 tea room, every single other cafe, restaurant and pub on our local high street is open which is around 30 and even then that tea room is doing meals delivered.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: ecommerce84 Member since: Feb 24, 2007
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  19. Bob Morgan

    Bob Morgan UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Don't worry Jeremy, Rishi Sunak's forest of Money Trees has it all covered!
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: Bob Morgan Member since: Apr 15, 2018
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  20. John Hemming

    John Hemming UKBF Regular Full Member

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    The evidence is in fact that the lockdown in England made no difference to the death rate. Social distancing may have, protecting people in care homes would have.

    I think the disease is very infectious. However, about half of the population have resistance through CD4 and CD8 T-Lymphocytes as a result of a prior infection with a different coronavirus. Hence the percentage infection for herd immunity is around the 20-30% mark rather than 60-80% mark.

    Additionally the disease does not have an IFR of 1% as has been suggested. I personally think it is in the range of 0.2-0.3%, but there are people who argue for the figure of 0.1% which is much the same as most flus.
     
    Posted: Jul 26, 2020 By: John Hemming Member since: May 23, 2019
    #20