The end?

Discussion in 'COVID-19 Forum' started by Bluejen84, Mar 14, 2020.

  1. Newchodge

    Newchodge UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    14,195 3,743
    Has anyone noticed the huge numbers of cake makers (for example) who have sprung up in the last couple of years. Usually 1 person business, heavily reliant on cashflow, dependent on people gathering at celebration events. I doubt many will survive.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Newchodge Member since: Nov 8, 2012
  2. Forest Magic

    Forest Magic UKBF Newcomer Free Member

    14 0
    For the benefit of some of us less knowledgeable people would somebody who has a business as a Ltd Company and has a lease for a retail unit be personally liable for the rent to to the landord if the business fails or could they walk away from the commitment if their business can no longer carry on?
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Forest Magic Member since: Apr 27, 2017
  3. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    4,522 1,646
    Depends if you’ve signed a PG
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
  4. SillyBill

    SillyBill UKBF Regular Free Member

    148 60
    Corporate debt is very high (c.250% of GDP) in historical terms; albeit there has been tepid deleveraging since 2008 as it is now c. 225%. Personally I think the real elephant in the room is household debt which has been marching higher and higher and in the UK we're in the top 10 globally @ >84% of GDP. Only countries with more insane housing bubbles than ours top that (Oz, Sweden etc.). If households are tapped out due to debt they won't drive our consumer spend driven economy...cue cycle of aggregate demand dropping and further encouragement for households to deleverage. And as you say Western governments are as tapped out as if we've just fought a world war.

    In terms of corporate debt, there are some very interesting examples of where there is good debt and bad debt though (most in my opinion don't understand the difference). I have been compiling a list of companies for a while which I think have used debt incredibly intelligently in a cycle of low inflation and low interest. There are a number of companies and managements that I really like that have borrowed money at coupons as low as 1,5% over 10, 20+ years and generally invested that into hard assets that can be used to generate inflation busting income in the future. If we have a return to an inflationary environment bond holders of the likes of Vodaphone will have loaned at an average 2% or so return into inflation at quite possibly 4, 5, 6+%. I mean that is free money as the company increases price to capture inflation and their income statements shoot up as they bank the difference at the bond holders expense. A lot of these companies are unloved and in this sell-off are becoming very attractive. Very good divi yields and manipulating debt which will end up having being loaned at negative rates adjusted for inflation.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: SillyBill Member since: Dec 11, 2019
  5. Forest Magic

    Forest Magic UKBF Newcomer Free Member

    14 0
    It has been a while since we set this up, how can we back track to find out? Would it be in the lease if it was and would it be in legal jargon?
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Forest Magic Member since: Apr 27, 2017
  6. Newchodge

    Newchodge UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    14,195 3,743
    PG means personal guarantee. It may be part of the lease but it should be a separate document/appendix. It would have to have been signed.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Newchodge Member since: Nov 8, 2012
  7. Talay

    Talay UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    3,827 800
    We are looking to increase marketing and watching competitors carefully for signs of weakness or distress with a view to expansion or takeover.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Talay Member since: Mar 12, 2012
  8. DontAsk

    DontAsk UKBF Ace Free Member

    1,481 212
    You REALLY ought to know if you have signed a personal guarantee.

    Questions like this, on a business forum, never cease to amaze me!
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: DontAsk Member since: Jan 7, 2015
  9. SillyBill

    SillyBill UKBF Regular Free Member

    148 60
    I could list quite a few other businesses in there. Dog walking/grooming, pop up (anything), gin bars, Turkish barber shops (a.k.a tax credit fiddles) etc. A recession would be pretty devastating on those type of outfits.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: SillyBill Member since: Dec 11, 2019
  10. Gordon L

    Gordon L UKBF Contributor Free Member

    71 17
    Dear @myofficeinchina.

    Thanks for your replies to my post, in particular your remark about me putting some money in a SIPP.

    Given that it was part of my answer to the OP's post, your particular response to this was unwelcome and childish. It is a business forum is it not?

    Your answers border on the hysterical. It is important that the government give out advice and tells the population what they are doing. Hence it was and is important to talk about containment. Itself a phase, rather than an 'end state'. It never failed because it was never supposed to work in the short term.

    Indeed it is widely argued that it helped slow down the initial rate of infection in the UK because our tracing capabilities were extremely good. This is one of the reasons we are not (yet) in the situation that Italy is, and may yet have brought the country some time. this is critical in allowing us to build some more medical infrastructure.

    In terms of test numbers - no amount of testing will ever be enough. We can agree on that at least. But to continually make your own assessment as to whether we have tested enough, is hysteria. The key is that the bad cases are dealt with and hopefully the patients survive.

    I reiterate my point about letting things pan out before making inane commentary. You may have lived with it in a city, I was responsible for a large swathe of the SW during Foot and Mouth. I have seen how these things spread and how a country such as the UK deals with such things. We don't have the same labour resource as china. We don't have intrusive surveillance like china. But what we do have are a bunch of exceptional medical and scientific people and a much more transparent system; together with a population that is, by and large, being nudged towards making sensible, rational and mature decisions about isolation.

    I do agree with you that the UK gov is not perfect. I saw this during my time in the above. But then neither is China, Italy, Span, Germany and the rest of the world.

    So I say to you focus on business rather than your opinion on how the UK is doing, versus a totalitarian state. focus on your strong points, which is advice to business.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Gordon L Member since: Jul 22, 2019
  11. Forest Magic

    Forest Magic UKBF Newcomer Free Member

    14 0
    I am not embarrassed about asking the question, at the time we were buying the business i was taking Uni Exams and my brother died from cancer - some people (maybe not you) just can't remember everything - i think it was a simple question to ask - should not have to give excuses to people i don't know.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Forest Magic Member since: Apr 27, 2017
  12. UKSBD

    UKSBD Not a real duck Staff Member

    9,968 1,945
    Yes, but if it delays the move to UC and minimum income floors, they'll just reduce their hours and increase their tax credit top-ups
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: UKSBD Member since: Dec 30, 2005
  13. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

    22,126 2,604
    Yes it should be in your paperwork.
    Common, but not always asked for, in limited companies taking on a lease for a site.
    If you signed one then you are personally liable for the rent until the next break clause, the end of the lease, or someone else being given a new lease for the property.
    Can be tens of thousands of pounds in personal debt.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
  14. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

    4,239 978
    Pretty badly!
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
  15. Chris Ashdown

    Chris Ashdown UKBF Legend Free Member

    11,478 2,366
    For those not caring, if the large companies fail, they would bring down many other companies at the same time, Just imagine how many small companies supply parts and services to say British Airways
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Chris Ashdown Member since: Dec 7, 2003
  16. Bluejen84

    Bluejen84 UKBF Regular Free Member

    114 35
    Well the week is nearly over for me.

    Business 1 has celebrated its best week ever.

    Business 2, most likely to be effected and have to close for virus, has had a very standard week.

    I'm making plans if we'll be forced to close business 2 for whatever time the government declare (if they ever do). There is plenty I can do practically with the time and plenty I.can do practically to survive.

    Trying to be positve
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Bluejen84 Member since: Feb 25, 2020
  17. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    4,522 1,646
    All sorts of other benefits that business brings to our economy too
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
  18. Pish_Pash

    Pish_Pash UKBF Ace Free Member

    2,425 629
    I'm well funded (a whole heap of dosh sitting in my business account), I've no staff, I have issued no credit lines (other than to Amazon) I can hunker down for quite some considerable length of time - my main worry is banks failing...that'll take my legs out.

    Remember how the news slowly filtered out ..."don't panic buy" and before you can say "I'm off for a Number 2" there's no toilet rolls on the shelves.

    Just wait until they say..."don't take any money out your bank".
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Pish_Pash Member since: Feb 1, 2013
  19. ecommerce84

    ecommerce84 UKBF Regular Free Member

    761 247
    It’s quite fashionable among the hipsters.

    Although most of the haterz work for a big business in my experience.
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: ecommerce84 Member since: Feb 24, 2007
  20. simon field

    simon field UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

    4,435 1,644
    What you fail to mention is that the bloke at the top of the tree, the actual HEALTH SECRETARY, is a total liar!
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: simon field Member since: Feb 4, 2011