The end?

Discussion in 'COVID-19 Forum' started by Bluejen84, Mar 14, 2020.

  1. Bluejen84

    Bluejen84 UKBF Contributor Free Member

    66 12
    I'm not worried about this virus but I'll admit today I opened the doors today with my breath held...

    ...and we had a perfectly good happy Saturday. So all is good for now, at the very least the customers are still coming and I managed to get enough loo roll (one business has 7 public toilets to stock!).

    Do we really think there will be forced closures? They're bouncing around all sorts of ideas. A couple of weeks I could do maybe a month but after that i'd be in trouble.

    How is everyone else feeling?
     
    Posted: Mar 14, 2020 By: Bluejen84 Member since: Feb 25, 2020
    #1
  2. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Some other countries are forcing closures of certain business types while keeping others open.

    Seems to be a safe bet if you have a pharmacy. Not a safe bet if you have a nightclub.
    Everything in between take your chances.

    Been ill past few days with a virus (just a normal virus). Pretty normal for me - wife gives me them most of the time. :)
    Just doing the normal things - walking cats, washing car, wiring up a backup pump, cleaning out a drain. Studying. Pretty normal Saturday. :)
     
    Posted: Mar 14, 2020 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #2
  3. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    Eventually ever country will follow China's measure to combat the virus:


    Close everything for a period of time.


    China did it for 6 weeks (Wuhan City the exception) and this has improved figures.


    Many other countries followed suit as soon as they had infected figures and tested sufficiently to show the main areas of infections and isolated those towns/regions. This included 'imposed' self-isolation and closure of all social events to discipline the public to effectively self-isolate, unless absolutely required to go out for food, essential work, emergencies.


    I think closures will eventually be implemented in the UK and the longer the delay, the bigger impact this will have on the economy as well as the time it will take to recover.


    UK advisors and decision makers being the exception.


    Let's hope they know something that the rest of the world doesn't.


    The UK's (widely reported) 1st phase of containment has failed. I suspect their 2nd phase of delay will also fail (They will not provide true figures, or will they test the correct number as other countries have done). With regards to their 3rd phase, research. . . . . . their testing methods will not provide accurate data and finally their 4th phase, mitigate . . . . .the gate is open and the horse has bolted.


    They have decided to follow the strategy to try and develop herd immunity to save the UK and the world when (if) the virus comes back next year.


    Yes, there is an argument for this, but it seems W.H.O and the scientists in all other countries currently disagree with this. There are many in the medical profession in this country who are also against following the strategy of herd immunity.


    This virus has unknown features and no-one can predict what it will do and what will happen.


    Expect your business to be closed for a period of 2 months, or at the very least, very severely disrupted. Some will not survive.


    Make contingency plans ASAP.


    'The End' is near . . . . . .but we will get over it . . . . . .eventually!
     
    Last edited: Mar 14, 2020
    Posted: Mar 14, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #3
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  4. Gordon L

    Gordon L UKBF Contributor Free Member

    71 17
    Just because you live/operate in china, doesn't mean that you are an expert in this, just as I am not. Yes the containment phase has failed, but it never suggested it would work, It was just a phase, like a military plan and we wont know how effective it has been until much later in the year once the impact on the NHS and the mortality rate is understood.

    I would also say that you generalise far too much. There are plenty of scientists who agree with what the UK government are doing,

    As for the Chinese way - has it really been a success? For a start they have lied since the very start of this affair. They are responsible via their terrible food hygiene standards for this, as well as previous such outbreaks. We don't actually know if their way is a success. Because they haven't defeated the virus and neither have they developed a vaccine. There is every chance of the disease re-emerging.

    You talk about the UK not testing the correct number, and that testing methods will not provide accurate data.

    Go tell that to the Chinese.....

    Personally, rightly or wrongly, I have considerably more faith in the UK scientific leadership, which has considerable experience of and understanding in such matters. There is an excellent programme on Radio 4 about Professor Chris Whitty, (search for his name on Radio 4 and you will find a profile piece about him). He comes with exceptional pedigree.

    Instead of jumping the gun with inane commentary, why not just hold your breath for a while and let things pan out.

    To answer the OP's post - I am nervous and doing what I can to navigate the uncertainty and mitigate the risks, as I see them, of my revenue going south. I have also just invested a modest sum via a SIPP into a couple of blue chip global funds, now that the markets are a little lower.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Gordon L Member since: Jul 22, 2019
    #4
  5. UrbanRetail

    UrbanRetail UKBF Regular Free Member

    244 75
    The UK's current course is like driving the wrong way down the motorway, accident waiting to happen and the results will be fatal.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: UrbanRetail Member since: Mar 3, 2012
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  6. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    I'm giving my opinion, based on what I see, experience and (comprehensive) news items I read. A forum is great for people giving their opinions, as you are doing now. Readers can take what they want from each post.




    Then what was the point in continually stating the process they are following? After the 1st Phase failure, they should have abandoned their strategy. In fact they did the exact opposite of 'containment', they allowed every single country with infections continue to fly into UK, with zero checks. Please explain to me how that was 'containing' the spread of the virus?

    They had experience to go on, those countries that had already experienced the virus (not just China) and considered heavy testing and isolation as the best methods of preventing the spread of the virus.




    Again, I'm stating my opinion, as you are (and others) freely do.

    I would argue that there are now more UK scientists against what the government are doing. Keep watching the news today . . . .

    Globally, scientists tend to be with the 'rest of the world' in combatting this virus.




    I agree to the first part, but there has been a considerable decline in n numbers and China is getting 'back to normal' after 6 weeks of total shutdown. Wuhan City is still in Lockdown as they want to ensure the virus has been contained in Hubei province, as well as in other parts of China.

    It isn't going to be easy, for China and the rest of the world, including the UK.




    That's the considered opinion of many in the medical profession.

    It goes without saying, that if you do selected and limited tests, then an overall picture will not be accurately formed.




    That's exactly the point. they have experience on theory and what is written down, not necessarily on experience of this specific virus. No-one knows the full extent of this virus. China has the head start, but as usual in some countries, they will ignore everything coming out of China for their own peculiar reasons. The world should learn from China's experience in combatting this virus.




    Because I've seen and experienced at first hand the affect of this virus, as you will too when the s#1t hits the fan in your city. The virus follows the same path in every country that has infections. Understanding the need to test and isolate is paramount to combatting this virus and keep infections & deaths down.

    Pan out? Ok lets let it pan out and see what will happen. Look at Italy, Spain, France as well as most other European Cities and how they are combatting the virus.

    Unless you think that this virus does not like UK citizens and will leave them alone.




    I'm glad you are nervous, maybe some comments you read are sinking home.




    Who gives a s#1t.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #6
  7. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    Actually, it's worse.

    They are driving the wrong way blindfold with police checks telling them to stop every 100 meters. . . . . . .yet they still continue driving faster.

    At some point, their ego has to be checked and follow the rest of the world who have had a head start and follow their procedures.

    It maybe that they are fully aware that the NHS is both woefully inadequate as well as being ill prepared to combat this virus.

    As far as being ill prepared, there should be no excuse for this or places to hide for those responsible. They had seen what was happening in January, or at least should have been.

    A detrimental impact on virtually every business cannot be avoided.

    There will be a few that will 'benefit".
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2020
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
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  8. Bob Morgan

    Bob Morgan UKBF Regular Free Member

    376 99
    Preparation, Preparation and Preparation! - Make plans for Potential Catastrophes and Natural Disasters! – It actually reduces Insurance Premiums! Irrespective of a Pandemic, what would you do if there was a Fire? How soon could you recover and be back to Full Steam? Who covers for whom? How do staff get to and from work? - Do they need to? How do staff get paid? What are your Computer Data Recovery Plans? Do you need an Alternative Location? - How soon can it be 'Up and Running?' What Contingency Plans do you have? How would you deal with an Outbreak of Tuberculosis? - This is actually far more likely than Coronavirus, with more than 9,000 cases being reported annually in the UK.

    ‘Business as Usual’ (But Monitored) for me at the moment! However, I cannot say that for one of our UK Plc Clients, who appears to 'Cut and Paste' from Daily Mail Panic articles! The process works both ways and currently, we are 'Back-Peddling' on their work! - Coronavirus appears to have infected their 'Accounts Payable Department!' - As early as November 2019! (According to recent Emails)

    A few years ago I worked in Iraq building Hospitals. Upon arriving, I asked a Contractor "What is your Plan B?" He went 'Ape' in Arabic (Iraqi Arabic Vociferous Form = Normal Conversation) and told me "You British, you always need to have this Plan B! - We do not work that way!" My response was "That is possibly the reason that I am here? . . . Now to Plan B, because your one and only Plan A has clearly not worked!"
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Bob Morgan Member since: Apr 15, 2018
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  9. Bluejen84

    Bluejen84 UKBF Contributor Free Member

    66 12
    Deep down i know we could survive one way or another. I guess I'm a little bitter as both our businesses, after years of hard work, appear to have got to fantastic places. Just typical really, we were feeling so positive about the future.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Bluejen84 Member since: Feb 25, 2020
    #9
  10. JEREMY HAWKE

    JEREMY HAWKE UKBF Legend Full Member

    4,593 1,482
    I along with a few others on here have been trading for long time
    I have been through recessions and I think we can apply what we have learnt to this but it is a very different animal

    I know it is difficult but we are all in the same boat
    Now is the time to for a business owner to be the best they have ever been in order to survive
    We are going to have to work harder and come up with more ideas to steer our businesses through this time

    I do think it will take a long time to recover and there will be some big casualties from it but the members on this forum mostly are small businesses and if you work on it tomorrow morning you could just survive when your larger competitors fail
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: JEREMY HAWKE Member since: Mar 4, 2008
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  11. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    You have to expect a downturn for the next two months (at least). Preparing for this is paramount.

    1. Cut your expenses as much as you can. (Speak to staff - They have to understand that these events are beyond your control)

    2. Look at online sales (Depending on your business).

    3. Look at your stock inventory and make adjustments where possible.

    4. Look at all facilities the government are offering to help your business. (In China the government have understood the situation and have helped ALL businesses, one way or another. I think other governments will follow suit).

    Remember, above all, that business will be back in about 2 months (maybe more, depending on the course of action the UK government will take - the current strategy will just prolong the impact).

    The quicker businesses accept the situation and short term hardships and prepare, the stronger they will come out of this episode.

    China has been through the same, businesses are starting to get back to work and 'normal' life is resuming. The current unknown factor, is how many businesses have failed to recover.

    You can only do your best, but being pro-active at this stage, will help a great deal.

    I wish you all the best.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #11
  12. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    I echo ALL the above.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #12
  13. JEREMY HAWKE

    JEREMY HAWKE UKBF Legend Full Member

    4,593 1,482
    That positivity that you have shared with everybody here is the same energy that is required to get you through this .
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: JEREMY HAWKE Member since: Mar 4, 2008
    #13
  14. Bob Morgan

    Bob Morgan UKBF Regular Free Member

    376 99
    'Deep Down' I have tried to remain Positive too. However, I have crossed 3 Continents to get my business where it is! And, before anyone asks, "Yes! - I do feel rather smug!"
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: Bob Morgan Member since: Apr 15, 2018
    #14
  15. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

    4,846 1,097
    ^This^
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #15
  16. fisicx

    fisicx It's Major Clanger! Staff Member

    31,861 9,375
    Containment doesn’t work. It was never going to work. If it did there wouldn’t be any cases outside China.

    Most people will get the symptoms, feel ill then get better. Just like they do with all the other Coronavirus strains we have been suffering form for hundreds of years.

    The UK approach is sensible. Those countries closing their borders won’t stop the spread. All they are doing is delaying the inevitable. This virus is here to stay. It’s not going to be eradicated. Any medication they produce won’t kill it off, it will just make you less infectious or feel better.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: fisicx Member since: Sep 12, 2006
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  17. RobinBHM

    RobinBHM UKBF Regular Free Member

    236 85
    I think its going to be very tough, many small businesses have virtually no working capital -usually its provided by the bank in the form of an overdraft.

    It will be the businesses with high overheads that will suffer, cafes etc.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: RobinBHM Member since: Apr 14, 2012
    #17
  18. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

    4,846 1,097
    Totally agree.

    Unfortunately in UK most small businesses are undercapitalised and require outside funding, not just to survive this crisis, but to generally operate on a day to day basis.

    The 'weak' will struggle to survive this.

    It's sad, as this is not a consequence of the effort and hard work many businesses have put in to build their business.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #18
  19. MY OFFICE IN CHINA

    MY OFFICE IN CHINA UKBF Big Shot Full Member

    4,846 1,097
    Two words that will be used in the next few months:

    Force Majeure
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: MY OFFICE IN CHINA Member since: Nov 16, 2011
    #19
  20. fisicx

    fisicx It's Major Clanger! Staff Member

    31,861 9,375
    Followed by a millions of people googling to find out what those two words mean.
     
    Posted: Mar 15, 2020 By: fisicx Member since: Sep 12, 2006
    #20