The ban on cars that are not zero emission

Discussion in 'Green Business' started by Nick Dewdney, May 7, 2018.

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  1. Nick Dewdney

    Nick Dewdney UKBF Contributor Full Member

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    What does everyone think of the proposed ban from 2040 onwards?

    Now that cars like Tesla's and Nissan Leafs are around I am starting to believe that mainstream manufactures will bring out more and more vehicles with better range.

    I like the thought of having solar panels on my roof and batteries powering my cars but like others have not actually got either !
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Nick Dewdney Member since: Apr 23, 2018
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  2. Nico Albrecht

    Nico Albrecht UKBF Enthusiast Full Member - Verified Business

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    The ban can only be applied to zero emissions measured at tail pipe. For solar power and electric cars the numbers still don't add up. We don't live in France where 90% is nuclear power and 0 emissions can be almost archived. You have to look at production CO2 emissions and ongoing emissions ( maintenance ) and finally recycling. If electric cars would be so much better why is no car maker giving numbers on how much CO2 is produced during production. Solar power adds another problem to it what to do with the energy on a sunny day? You overproduce and they have to dump the electricity to another country. That happens in countries such as Germany. They pay 33% more on electricity to fund the whole operation but during summer they have to give it away for free to countries such as Poland or Czech R. since you cannot store it for a very long time. The solutions are far from workable
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Nico Albrecht Member since: May 2, 2017
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  3. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Power stations are just 36% efficient (government's own figures). The grid (with your local step-down transformer) is 90% efficient. Batteries are (when new!!!) 85% efficient on charging and 85% on discharge. The drive train is c.a. 80% efficient, taking wind resistance into account. An additional 15% power is required to move the batteries themselves, so that makes the power/weight ratio 85% efficient.

    That lot is based on some very optimistic figures and assumptions and comes to 16% efficiency for electric cars - the worst figure for all types of propulsion! In simple terms, 16% of the energy contained in the fuel at the power station is turned into forward motion and 84% is turned into heat.

    Multiply that lot out and compare with a modern Diesel engine, which is theoretically up to over 60% efficient (a new type of mixed fuel engine developed by the University of Wisconsin is about 70% efficient and very, very clean) but real-world efficiency is c.a. 40-45% for most modern Diesel cars. In simple terms, 45% of the chemical energy contained in the Diesel is turned into forward motion and 55% is turned into heat.

    Now comes the real kicker - if all cars and trucks that are on the roads today were to be electric and were to be charged overnight during off-peak hours, we would need THREE TIMES the electricity we use today and the grid would have to be double its present capacity.

    As it takes about 25 years to built a power station, from initial consultation to first full production of power, that means that if we are to achieve this magic goal of all-electric by 2040, we should have started building dozens of nuclear power stations right across every part of the UK three years ago!

    As for the poor old grid - the creation of a giant 400kV backbone for the whole of the UK was announced back in the early 60s. It has yet to be completed!

    Nothing, but nothing for me demonstrates the sheer blinding stupidity of politicians as the debates over power and transport.
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
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  4. fisicx

    fisicx It's Major Clanger! Staff Member

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    But we can generate leccy by burning trees. Another idiot idea classified as zero emission because no new CO2 is being produced.
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: fisicx Member since: Sep 12, 2006
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  5. Nico Albrecht

    Nico Albrecht UKBF Enthusiast Full Member - Verified Business

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    One alternative would be hydrogen powered cars, in Berlin the whole public transport on buses is hydrogen powered for almost a decade now. They slowly switched over the buses in phases and long term it looks very promising. Hydrogen production is already in place and would require very little new infrastructure compared to electric cars. Fun facts hydrogen can be extracted from crude oil as well so the big petrol companies can slowly switch over and don't get hit right away.
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Nico Albrecht Member since: May 2, 2017
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  6. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    And here's the real surprise for all those fans of electric cars - DEPRECIATION!

    The prices for electric cars fall through the floor, as soon as they've been drive off the lot. BMW i3 - new £34,000 otr. 2yrs old and 10,000 on the clock - £20,000. Nissan Leaf £28,000 otr - 2013, 15,000 miles - £4,500.

    Now compare that with an Audio A4 - also £28,000 otr. 2013 with 36,000 on the clock - £16,000 (£20k in good nick!)
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
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  7. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    Uk government - possibly all European governments - to date have 100% record of U-turns on environmental initiatives.

    I’m absolutely convinced that nobody has actually sat down to evaluate the secondary impact of this ‘policy’. Or if they have, they’ve hidden the results
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
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  8. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Governments tend not to be interested in second order effects until it is too late. Hard enough getting them to recognise first order effects with a ton of evidence.
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  9. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Depreciation now is poor?
    What will it be when all that's around is non - polluting cars?
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  10. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    I asked a pink flying elephant that was flying past my window what he thought.

    He responded that it’s what you get when you vote for idiots.
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
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  11. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Perhaps we need a better grade of idiot standing in elections.
     
    Posted: May 7, 2018 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  12. Ian J

    Ian J Factoring Specialist Full Member - Verified Business

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    Have you taken the Government grant into consideration as a BMW i3 is a smidgeon over £29,000 and I would have thought that depreciation of £9,000 over two years isn't too bad
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Ian J Member since: Nov 6, 2004
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  13. Toby Willows

    Toby Willows UKBF Regular Free Member

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    All cars won’t be electric by 2040, that’s not what’s being aimed for. There will be plenty of petrol (and maybe diesel) cars on the road until 2060 at least.

    Also all the cars won’t be charged nightly, many will be just once a week and some even less. And as battery technology advances less charging will be required. So the demand on the national grid will be no where as high as you think.
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Toby Willows Member since: Jun 20, 2016
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  14. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    'Emissions free' is what the present government claimed they are aiming for.

    Of course, politicians are notorious for redefining their own words in retrospect, so 'emissions free' could mean less than 30mg total emissions per km driven, which the latest Diesel cars will be able to achieve in a year or three.

    I would not make as fundamental a mistake as that! I took fuel equivalents, not some mythical world where every car gets charged up every night.

    By taking fuel equivalents, I have replaced the present day demands with the self-same demands, using electric power.

    That of course does not take two important variables into account - (1) an inevitable increase in demand for mobility of people and goods as affluence and the population increase, and (2) a possible decease in commuting, caused by more home and remote employment.

    So taking a 1:1 replacement for current needs is about as realistic as we can get.
    The huge problem with hydrogen is the cost of fuel cells. The present generation is neither cheap nor reliable. Were H cars widely available, the cheap delivery of H as a fuel would inevitably spring up - but we have a chick-and-egg situation. No real infrastructure because the fuel cells cost an arm and a leg and need to be replaced every few months. No mass produced cheap and reliable fuel cells, because there is no demand. No demand because there is no infrastructure. The Clarity from Honda has to get a new fuel cell every three months and at an unknown cost, some guesstimate about $25,000!

    I went to the Mercedes research centre in Stuttgart back in the 90s and was shown their fuel cell technology and the keen young engineers there spoke of a future of H pipes leading to every household and fuel cells driving every device, from cookers to TV sets. They even had fuel cell powered laptops and other devices.

    I asked when the first fuel cell cars would be on the road, "Oh a fuel cell production car is about ten years away!" they said enthusiastically.

    The latest statements from Mercedes, GM, Ford and others state that production cars powered by hydrogen fuel cells are "about ten years away" - it seems that it is always about ten years away!

    Ranged against all that lot are the hybrids - except that their real world performance has proven to be lamentable. The very latest hybrids are about as good as the latest Diesels at just above 60mpg (Emissions Analytics figures) and they are tiny, extremely light-weight and therefore more dangerous.

    The reality is that Diesel is a truly miraculous fuel. Even a conventional suck-squeeze-bang-puff engine can achieve a theoretical thermal efficiency of 45% and a modern Diesel achieves that in the real world. Now we can achieve emissions of NOx of about 13mg per km tested ( http://www.bosch-presse.de/presspor...-provides-solution-to-nox-problem-155524.html ) and 30-40 in the real world. The remaining pollutants can be filtered out and burnt off and all that cleaning technology (e.g. Add-Blue) can be fitted retrospectively to the most polluting trucks and busses.

    Except no politicians are prepared to grasp that nettle anywhere. All sorts of 'initiatives' are instigated, but these are circumvented by a whole range of factors, pressure groups and a sort of collective stupidity that has Germany (just one of dozens of examples) shutting down all nuclear power stations, but maintaining power generated by the burning of brown coal - possibly the most polluting fuel on Planet Earth! Why? Jobs!

    Again, in Germany, old Diesels and trucks in particular are taxed off the roads, so they get exported off to Eastern Europe, where they form the backbone of a cheap transport industry that drives all over Germany, putting cleaner German transport companies out of business!

    (In the UK, we drive on the wrong side of the road, so we get to keep all our old, polluting trucks and busses! Australia suffers from the same effect and one of the unseen side-effects of driving on the left, is more pollution, as old trucks and busses cannot be exported!)

    Now one needs a emissions certificate to drive into nearly all German cities, even as a foreign-reg car, but the standards are pretty low and a post-2006 Euro-4 or better will get you a green sticker that lets you in, no matter when or where.

    The fact remains that we are killing ourselves with pollutants - we have been doing this ever since we discovered fire - despite the simple measures we could take to avoid this absurdity. Every time someone comes up with a new 'Green' initiative, it has a polluting down-side, from wind-power requiring a spinning reserve that burns fuel 'just-in-case' to banning nuclear but burning brown coal, from selling old trucks to Poland, to electric cars that are just 16% efficient - these initiatives are often ill-thought-out boomerangs!

    It's time to take a completely fresh look at all these various environmental issues and the underlying need for new and cleaner power sources. Unfortunately politicians do not have either the know-how, nor do they have the intelligence (collectively or individually) to grasp and deal with any of these issues. Their past record is testament to that!

    Our only hope is ourselves. If we vote with our feet, but do so intelligently, buying green when it makes sense and avoiding daft and foolish gimmicks like electric cars, we can rely on the more progressive industries to clean up our environment.
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
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  15. Ian J

    Ian J Factoring Specialist Full Member - Verified Business

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    My next car is likely to be a hybrid and the model that I am interested in can travel up to 25 miles on electric power alone. I will have to take my son to college three times a week which is a 10 mile round trip so there is a real possibility that I won't use any petrol at all for weeks at a time.

    In an earlier post you said that one of the big problems with electric cars is depreciation but that suits me as I intend to keep my next (mid life purchase) car for three years then buy a second hand BMW i3 which will do me for the rest of my life
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Ian J Member since: Nov 6, 2004
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  16. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
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  17. Nico Albrecht

    Nico Albrecht UKBF Enthusiast Full Member - Verified Business

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    I would like to add they use hydrogen combustion engines not hydrogen fuel cells ( electric ) in those buses. Not sure where fuel h cells are at the moment but if they throw enough money in R&D like they did with Diesel engines in the 90's they might solve the problem.
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Nico Albrecht Member since: May 2, 2017
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  18. Toby Willows

    Toby Willows UKBF Regular Free Member

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    You can’t even really guess at how much electricity will be required to power our cars. Presuming electric is the only way to go how many electric cars will be on the road in 2040, 50%? So presume it’s 2060 until 90% of cars are electric, how much will battery technology have advanced? We don’t know. Working on your “going on today’s use” is pointless. Working your theory backwards in 1978 my smartphone would have needed a battery the size of a phone box to last a day, so you would have dismissed the possibility of a future pocket computer back then because there wasn’t enough power.

    Or perhaps you have to factor into your calculations battery advancement at its current rate as well.
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Toby Willows Member since: Jun 20, 2016
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  19. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Indeed - my car gets used mostly for around town driving, total miles in a month would suggest a full charge of a Nissan Leaf 2018 every month.
    Or put another way, putting a tenner in every week or two in the petrol car we have now.

    I would think government would have to put more taxes on electricity in order to compensate for reduced tax take on petrol & diesel. 2nd order effect of government policy on electric vehicles.
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  20. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    The electric cars have advanced in the past 110 years. Bit better range now.
     
    Posted: May 8, 2018 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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