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Discussion in 'General Business Forum' started by Flashh, Oct 11, 2016.
sorry dupe post.
I stopped using Tesco a while ago for being too expensive. I bet lidl and aldi will soak up any rise in costs as they will no doubt take more of tesco customers.
In addition you don't want a foreigner bashing Government or Press. Those foreigners that May hates so much are the ones we will need to buy our exports.
Fluctuations do of course feature in the plan, indeed the exchange rate was a key component of this, but a drop of so much nevertheless has a huge impact and a very sudden one at that. My worry is how long the fluctuations will last and how deep. Politics always plays a part too, as you know, when transactions are made overseas. A business? Yes. Riding a wave? Well, we are definitely riding a wave of uncertainty. You know when you go into a recession you'll come out after 2 years. But in this instance, the very fundamentals of our economy have been rattled We have no idea when, if ever, we will come out of this. You can of course plan for worst case, but you make a worst case assessment given facts and the environment at the time. My worst case was products not selling. They do sell, and very well. But getting growth in this environment could be very very hard indeed. It will take a while to develop a plan to de-risk the business in the new world we now live, which fundamentally is sell more and keep the costs down.
I am amazed the way the media treat Brexit. Recently the trend is to discuss it in terms of Tesco. According to the media Tesco are going to be the saviour of the nation because they will be tough with those nasty multi-national companies who want to charge us more for things just because the pound is weak. Well three cheers for Tesco for sticking up for us! Are we really that gullible?
The value of the pound is really a side issue as far as Brexit is concerned. It has always fluctuated whether we were in the EU or not.
We do not know what will happen as The Byre says. The tariffs that are expected from the EU for exporting to there can only be guessed but you have to assume that they could be the same as for other non-EU countries. But we just do not know what the tariffs will be until we are out and even then they could change after we leave.
The biggest unknown as far as I can see is the constitutional situation with regard to parts of the UK such as Scotland and Northern Ireland and dependencies such as the Isle of Man, and the Channel Islands. And then there is Gibraltar which has a land border with the EU and frankly a bit isolated from Great Britain for comfort.
Anyway, I am off to buy that wide screen TV before the prices go up.
Nope, the public voted to leave the EU political union.
What will happen to trade with the EU was not known, is still not known, and won't be known for quite some time.
It's frustrating, but cards will have to be kept close.
So it has been over valued for 168 years ?
The same can be said for the 16m that voted remain. Lies were spread by both sides of the campaign.
I agree completely. I was merely arguing with those, including Theresa May, who state that they know why people voted out.
Those that voted were adults. If they (whether that be remain or Brexit) now say they don't know what they voted for, then they are stupid. Amongst all the lies, there was enough information out there to make an informed decision.
I agree. But people voted for different reasons. Some voted to leave to take back control of our law, some to take back control of our borders, some because they hark back to the days of Britain as a world power in its own right, some because the establishment wanted them to vote yes, so they voted no. Some voted to stay for fear of the unknown, some because they have a total commitment to the european ideal, some because they thought it was economically sensible, some because they didn't see any reason for change, some because, if Nigel farage thought it was a good idea, it must be an appalling idea. And loads more reasons.
For anyone to say they know why people voted for Brexit is completely crass.
This from the Lord Ashcroft polls, does give some insight:
It may give some insight. How many people were polled? How were they selected? When were they polled? What questions were actually asked?
I would suggest it throws up more questions than insight.
If it wasn't known, then the referendum shouldn't have happened the way it did without adequate information.
We did not just vote for an action of principle. We voted for an outcome which will have a lasting effect for years.
In my opinion, it's becoming more evident that the idea of leaving the EU whilst retaining the good parts we want is going to be an impossible task. I understand that both sides will play hardball at this stage, but the fact remains that the EU can't undermine their entire union and the founding principles - however beneficial that would be trade-wise.
Forcing every EU member to abide by the free movement of goods, services and people, whilst the UK gets all the perks without doing that, just isn't going to happen if we're being realistic here. Lost trade with the UK would be a drop in the ocean compared to other EU members being exasperated about the UK being given all the benefits without any of the responsibilities.
If there's any sure-fire way to cause further withdrawals from the EU, that's probably it.
Even partial single market access, where we get more favourable terms than other countries, is going to come with a big price to pay. I just hope we compromise, as I think it's the only way we will come out of this in one piece with the chance to prosper later on. Anything else, like a hard Brexit with WTO rules, would be an absolute disaster.
Food for thought.
As I stated previously, because it takes just one parliament to veto any agreement made by the other 26, the ONLY way out of the EU is a total break - aka 'Hard Brexit'.
The total break with no agreement of any sort being in place will bring disaster.
Given the political turmoil in which the EU finds itself, I even doubt that a 'Norway' solution would be possible now. Somebody will veto it! As for Brexit-Soft, forget it. That just ain't gonna happen!
So now we have the real fall-out starting to take place - and it's a doozy - the Pound has now parity with the Euro and continues to fall.
It's no good saying that we then can export more - we can't! We hardly make anything anymore. The push to become a service-based economy was one of the great follies of history. The multiplier effect of manufacturing is enormous (about eight!) whereas service industries have a very low multiplier effect and also pay little.
The pressures have been building for decades. The fall in manufacturing, the fall in technical and scientific education, the lunatic house prices, the fall in productivity and the near-total reliance on cheap labour, the mounting difference between rich and poor, it has all been building up for five or six decades of totally misguided and ineffectual governments.
Now at last, with this final act of wild desperation by the voters, the chicken are coming home to roost!
So get ready for an inflation-shitstorm and the near total destruction of our service industries.
Brexit supporters repeatedly stated that we'd be fine for trade deals. That "they need us more than we need them".
What that fails to take into account is that they need unanimous approval from individual countries for the deal we will obtain.
Whilst large trade partners exist in the EU which have a vested interest in a fruitful trading relationship with us (such as Germany), there are many EU countries which have few economic ties with the UK. Unfortunately for us, these countries have equal power when it comes to unanimous EU policy decisions.
I believe it's the smaller nations which are going to give us the most difficult time. When it comes to the countries which will resist the undermining of EU membership benefits, we have very little leverage with them - if any at all.
In the worst case scenario, I do wonder if our exit from the EU may not go ahead. It could easily come to a point where a particular exit is nothing short of a disaster for the UK, and could plunge the country into free fall with ramifications for decades.
There is "the will of the people", but only to an extent. We wouldn't send a nuclear bomb up and back down on ourselves if 51% of voters requested it. At some point, the UK as a nation must be protected from itself.
I'm sure that even the most ardent Brexit supporters would have a limit on the damage they would be prepared to accept on both a national and personal level. At least I hope so, anyway.
Indeed, as we foot a substantial part of the bill for them, they are not going to want to give that up.
And, of course, the EU will want us to fail and will do their best to make that happen. A successful Brexit would likely lead to other countries following us out.
Bit of an oxymoron