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Sentiment -Brexit

Discussion in 'General Business Forum' started by Flashh, Oct 11, 2016.

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  1. Paul Norman

    Paul Norman UKBF Ace Free Member

    2,692 822
    I agree with you, Scott. Almost to the letter. But now the reality strikes, that actually the cost of leaving the EU will hit places like Sunderland and Ebbw Vale hard, those places have to take that on the chin. It was their choice. And it is not the responsibility of London to make good that loss, either.

    The leave vote, I suspect, was a the rebellion you describe, against a deeply flawed Europe. But that rebellion has an invoice. And it is that invoice which we need to honestly face up to now, instead of the statistics massaging that both camps are involved in even after the matter has been decided.

    The reality is, people voted for hard Brexit, as it is known. My own views on that are irrelevant, but people voted for that. Membership of the economy community would place freedom of movement high on the agenda still, and that, I suspect, is the issue that swung the vote.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: Paul Norman Member since: Apr 8, 2010
    #41
  2. Newchodge

    Newchodge UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    14,291 3,778
    While I agree with most of that, Paul, I cannot agree with your final paragraph. No one knew what they were voting for because of all the lies spread by the campaign, particularly about complete free access to the european market, more money for the NHS etc etc. No one told the voters what the reality would be, because, quite frankly, no one had really thought about it. It is therefore impossible to claim that people voted for this or for that. Many people just voted against the establishment.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: Newchodge Member since: Nov 8, 2012
    #42
  3. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    4,575 1,681
    This may or may not apply to you, but my experience is that most start ups view things like SWOT analysis as a bit of a joke; or an annoying bit of homework that they just chuck a few answers into.

    In reality, there are certain givens in the world of business - these include fluctuations in interest rates, commodity prices and exchange rates - if these didn't feature in your original plan then you never really had a business, you were just riding a wave.

    Oddly, BBC news allowed an imported (of blinds I believe) to lament how he was unable to compete because exchange rates had moved and UK manufacturing was 'too expensive' - but they never challenged him on how his competitors were managing. The fact is, you are on a level playing field - other than the reasonably unlikely event that your competitors have hedged, their costs will have changed along with yours.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
    #43
  4. KM-Tiger

    KM-Tiger UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

    9,985 2,667
    I think we did. I certainly voted out because I believe that to be governed by a govt we elect, rather than the EU, is the best thing in the long term for the British people.

    In the short to medium term there could well be economic consequences. I was happy to accept that risk.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: KM-Tiger Member since: Aug 10, 2003
    #44
  5. Newchodge

    Newchodge UKBF Big Shot Free Member

    14,291 3,778
    I am sure you knew what you were voting for, but I don't think that is true of all the 17 million-odd others.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: Newchodge Member since: Nov 8, 2012
    #45
  6. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

    9,761 2,681
    Without question.

    I saw a number of surveys which showed a good chunk of leave supporters believed that Brexit would have no impact on their personal finances.

    There was also an interesting survey which showed that some people were willing to take a financial hit, but if they were offered the opportunity to pay money out of their own pocket at the time to guarantee that we exited the EU, they almost all refused.

    It'll be interesting to see how the public reacts and responds if things do go south over the next few years, which looks increasingly likely to happen.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
    #46
  7. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Legend Full Member

    9,964 4,050
    Here at Byre Towers we have been doing all kinds of scenario building - as have others. Even our accountants keep sending us emails, outlining their latest thinking - and the truth is -

    Nobody knows!

    Least of all, our esteemed government!

    But some things are starting to loom at us out of the fog - namely -

    1. Inflationary pressures have been building for at least ten years (quantitative easing, falling Pound, silly house prices) and when they do hit, boy, they are going to hit hard. So pay-off that mortgage, stock up on heating oil and hunker down for a shitstorm. As Bette Davis said in 'All About Eve' "Fasten your seat-belts. It's going to be a bumpy night!"

    2. Parliament is probably going to have to ratify any new agreement with the EU (we shall just have to wait for the various courts to decide on this one!) and that will make any passing of such a bill of ratification somewhat unlikely.

    3. Almost all EU leaders have stated very clearly that there will be no deal on freedom of access to the single market without full freedom of movement of labour. Remember, it only takes ONE to veto any agreement, so the UK cannot expect any movement on this issue.

    4. Negotiations can only begin AFTER article 50 has been invoked - so there is a real danger that we shall be forced out by our own choice and neither Parliament, nor the rest-27 will agree to any compromise in the subsequent two years. We may very well leave with no agreement in place!

    5. The EU has problems all of its own. They too are having monetary issues (are they ever!) and problems with a loony far-right, civil unrest and inflationary pressures building. The UK and its issues around leaving the EU are only of burning interest to the Irish. The rest of the EU does not really care that much, as manufacturers get ready to relocate UK production to Eastern Europe and pricing is structured to 'swallow' a 10% import tariff to the UK. So a so-called 'Hard Brexit' would not impact them significantly economically or politically.

    6. Spain has already indicated that they would veto any special arrangements for the UK, especially regional ones (e.g. Scotland). Other countries (e.g. Lithuania, Estonia) have made similar noises. Special conditions other than those enjoyed by Norway and Switzerland would therefore be impossible.

    7. The political elephant in the room is the massive split in the Conservative party over Brexit. If you think the Labour PLP was giving us all the free freak-show, as it threw all of its toys out of the pram (to quote Bachman Turner Overdrive) "You ain't seen nothing yet!" Get ready for a strange mix between Whitehall trench warfare and a Brian Rix farce!

    So where will all the above lead?

    Once again - Nobody knows!

    The only logical outcome I can come up with is that we either leave with no agreement in place. That could mean entry visas, currency controls, EU manufacturers relocating, a massive fall in tourism and a huge drop in UK living standards.

    Or we do not leave at all.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
    #47
  8. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

    4,363 1,026
    How do you now feel that Theresa May has counted your vote, and all the others as being all about immigration? Her Xenophobic stance she justifies by saying you all voted to stop immigration.

    Are you happy to accept the risks on behalf of others who are already on very fixed low incomes; pensioners, disabled on benefits etc.?
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
    #48
  9. KM-Tiger

    KM-Tiger UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

    9,985 2,667
    I think we voted to control immigration, not stop it. And more importantly level the playing field for the entire world, not just the EU.

    Certainly we have seen some overreaction. Amber Rudd's companies listing foreign workers was well OTT, and rightly that idea has been dropped. I think the govt already have the data via NI numbers anyway.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: KM-Tiger Member since: Aug 10, 2003
    #49
  10. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

    4,363 1,026
    To the original poster. You have a classic case of price rises being misunderstood with the Tesco v Unilever spat. Unilever manufacture both in the UK and the EU and buy some raw materials in dollars. Some of their items will have gone up by much more than the 10% they are asking for. Some by less. 10% is an average and yet the Daily Mail thinks that it it is extortion.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
    #50
  11. stender

    stender UKBF Regular Free Member

    461 56
    What will happen is prices will rise. Sterling will strenghten again and prices won't drop.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: stender Member since: Jul 9, 2008
    #51
  12. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

    4,363 1,026
    KM-Tiger said:
    "I think we did. I certainly voted out because I believe that to be governed by a govt we elect, rather than the EU, is the best thing in the long term for the British people."

    I have a couple of friends who voice there vote in exactly as you have but certainly did not vote for May's xenophobic appropration of their vote.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
    #52
  13. KM-Tiger

    KM-Tiger UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

    9,985 2,667
    I think there is some disarray, not helped by there being no effective Opposition right now.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: KM-Tiger Member since: Aug 10, 2003
    #53
  14. bharris

    bharris UKBF Regular Free Member

    543 82
    Good for Tesco (think that's the first time i have ever said that)! If a company the size of Unilever who make a massive profit on their products can not absorb this then perhaps they need to think about shutting down. They are just being greedy. Personally i would stop buying there products if i actually did buy any..

    As i don't know Mrs May i don not know she has used my vote as a Xenophobic stance and i most certainly have not heard her or anyone saying we must stop immigration (apart form the very extreme odd groups). Talk like this is just typical of the mass hysteria trying to be created by the like of the BBC. Did you know a couple of weeks ago when Question time went to Boston (the most Xenophobic town in the UK) the contacted and invited all BNP and EDL plus other far right members to take part in the audience. That week the masses of the EDL as widely reported organised a march in Boston. Which the local paper reported that only 25 people turned up (and i think that included children and dogs). The police also released figures that showed so called hate crime was actually down. I just do not understand why we relish in self destruction.

    I don't recall anyone blaming Brexit in 08-09 for the pound to euro value when it was at a lower value. The "problem" is the artificially high value of the dollar (which most currencies attach themselves to) and the actual great planning of reducing the value of the pound (although it is probably luck as almost all nations do not want to have a high value currency) obviously as a lot of people on here are shouting what a terrible state of affairs this is have businesses that probably import from China, USA, Japan etc. Many of which are now probably finding it hard. How many of you listened to the warnings that the UK needs to change more into a supplier of goods rather than remain an importer coupled with the leaving the EU will enable us to have even greater control on the value of our currency. You must have looked at your businesses and at least thought about what you will do, change suppliers, manufacture yourself, sell something different, put prices up, reduce staff etc.etc. DO NOT expect the government to come to your aid as it is not in the long term interest of the county to have a high value pound.

    Having said that currencies fluctuate and the value of pound will rise again and fall again. I suppose Brexit will be whipped up and blamed by the hysterical media for many years to come. Stop listening to the biased self story making news. Take a simplistic view that the sun will still rise in the morning, people will still want to buy stuff. Just try and position yourself so you are able to meet their needs.

    is the only thing that is worth noting. Just get on with your business and make the best of it.

    As some one who currently fits 3 of the criteria who do you think you are to assume i have been wronged in the vote to leave the EU. No one has asked me directly why, who or what i think, however it seems like millions of people know why, who and what i think. The arrogance! perhaps that's one of the big issues of why areas of the UK feel and vote the way they do.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: bharris Member since: Dec 30, 2014
    #54
  15. silentjay

    silentjay UKBF Contributor Free Member

    71 10
    The pound lost most of its value in the 2008 crash and has also been on a steady slide since 2014. Why do people buy into the BBC lie that it's all down to Brexit? I remember lots of people saying for quite sometime that it was overvalued.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: silentjay Member since: Jun 7, 2014
    #55
  16. silentjay

    silentjay UKBF Contributor Free Member

    71 10
    Most job growth since the crash has been in low skilled service work, cooking each others meals, cutting each others hair, serving each other at the super-market. This doesn't create wealth for the country all you're doing is recycling money.

    I'd rather have a lower pound thus making our exports of goods and services cheaper, creating more skilled jobs that create these for export and producing actual wealth.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: silentjay Member since: Jun 7, 2014
    #56
  17. deniser

    deniser UKBF Legend Free Member

    8,100 1,702
    Because after the 2008 crash the pound only went down to the amount it had been in 2000 in the region of $1.40s - and was short lived before it began to rise again - whereas the current slump is a good 20 cents less than it was at its worst - and is still worsening over a longer period.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: deniser Member since: Jun 3, 2008
    #57
  18. atmosbob

    atmosbob UKBF Ace Free Member

    4,363 1,026
    You don't have to listen to the BBC. Just look at the exchange rate graph. 3 times when May made a hard Brexit speech at the Tory conference the pound went down in unison. When she opened her mouth at yesterdays PMQs the pound dipped yet again.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: atmosbob Member since: Oct 26, 2009
    #58
  19. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

    9,761 2,681
    You want to bring more money into the country?

    Then what you absolutely don't want to do under any circumstance is to risk adding trade barriers and tariffs to UK export trade, whilst creating years of uncertainty which drive away investment and jobs.

    However, the British public have voted to do exactly that.

    Again, this low pound = stronger exports & wealth formula is horrendously over-simplified, namely for these reasons:

    - Moderate affordability improvements will not draw any substantial contracts or supply lines from the likes of China and other areas.

    - The years of uncertainty ahead with the risk of tariffs and barriers will scare people away from making such substantial business decisions. Any savings now get wiped out if they're slapped with a 10% tariff in a few year's time.

    - Big companies with long-term supply channels can't just flip back and forwards with ease - especially when there are contracts, customised needs and integrated teams.

    - Manufacturers which source certain parts from overseas will see their prices go up and their profit margins squeezed (this filters all the way back to even iron ore to make steel).

    - And there's the risk of demand-pull inflation. Even if export manufacturing did improve quite well, it still takes years to expand capacity and hire/train more staff to meet demand. When demand outstrips supply, manufacturers may increase prices which causes demand-pull inflation. This can cause businesses to lose a lot of trade and even shut down if the valuation of the Pound ever rises. It also makes manufacturing more expensive for UK companies using the same supply chain.

    Could we see a moderate improvement? Of course. Perhaps a fair few billion. However, it's not going to be anywhere near enough to counter-act the negative consequences. Gaining 1,000 jobs in manufacturing is pointless if you lose 2,000 jobs in other sectors.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
    #59
  20. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

    29,807 6,645
    As opposed to the 400,000 employed in the car industry before the over educated government idiots got hold of it.
     
    Posted: Oct 13, 2016 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
    #60
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