New Rules: Furlough Scheme to End Next Month but Business no where near ready to open?

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Interestedobserver

Let's all, in business, get two things clear in our heads, and ensure we have planned accordingly.

1. This uncertainty, this switching lockdowns on and off, some level of restrictions which massively impact on some businesses, this is not going to end by Christmas. I am referring to Christmas 2023, because 2020 is not really going to happen.

2. The ability of the government to throw money into our hats expired some time ago. The willingness to get into more debt to do so, for popularity reasons, will also expire soon.


All my business planning is based on lockdowns on and off all the way through to spring 2022 now minimum

We won't beat this before the end of 2021 and then you've got the winter months of Jan to March early 2022 when we will still have to be cautious etc as viruses thrive in the winter

It's become clear every month that passes that time doesn't make Covid or its impact on us all go away

You have Trump promising vaccines and then the doctors saying it will take them 6 to 9 months to roll them out

And the 2 best looking vaccines right now in US require 2 doses per year!!
 
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Mr D

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All my business planning is based on lockdowns on and off all the way through to spring 2022 now minimum

We won't beat this before the end of 2021 and then you've got the winter months of Jan to March early 2022 when we will still have to be cautious etc as viruses thrive in the winter

It's become clear every month that passes that time doesn't make Covid or its impact on us all go away

You have Trump promising vaccines and then the doctors saying it will take them 6 to 9 months to roll them out

And the 2 best looking vaccines right now in US require 2 doses per year!!

And those who cannot afford the vaccines....?
Least here, despite the NHS not being that great, we do have free treatment. And free vaccines.
 
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Punk19

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the whole thing is a farce. I appreciate how hard it must be to try and manage this situation, however, to run out of tests, to run out of the ability to process tests is not good especially when lumping children back into schools and people into work just weeks before did they not expect this to happen - if not, why not.

To me - would have made far more sense to have spent time improving learning and working from home which would have kept numbers lower why we actually came up with a decent approach and strategy and given us another 3 or 4 months to get over the worst part of the year
 
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Mr D

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the whole thing is a farce. I appreciate how hard it must be to try and manage this situation, however, to run out of tests, to run out of the ability to process tests is not good especially when lumping children back into schools and people into work just weeks before did they not expect this to happen - if not, why not.

To me - would have made far more sense to have spent time improving learning and working from home which would have kept numbers lower why we actually came up with a decent approach and strategy and given us another 3 or 4 months to get over the worst part of the year

Yes, presumably a contract for xxxx number of tests was agreed and signed. Then turns out the supply isn't what was agreed....?
Did the government know or was it kept from the customer? :)
 
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UKSBD

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    Yes, presumably a contract for xxxx number of tests was agreed and signed. Then turns out the supply isn't what was agreed....?
    Did the government know or was it kept from the customer? :)

    From what I have heard, the getting tested isn't the big problem, it's analysing the tests that is.

    No good having a test and it just sat in a tube for 48 hours because the labs can't keep up.
     
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    Chris Ashdown

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    the whole thing is a farce. I appreciate how hard it must be to try and manage this situation, however, to run out of tests, to run out of the ability to process tests is not good especially when lumping children back into schools and people into work just weeks before did they not expect this to happen - if not, why not.

    To me - would have made far more sense to have spent time improving learning and working from home which would have kept numbers lower why we actually came up with a decent approach and strategy and given us another 3 or 4 months to get over the worst part of the year

    Hindsight is great and used by news headlines every day

    People seem to think that Ministers can micro manage all the problems be it Corvid, British rail or any other problem, that's not what they do, they make some decisions that are handles by the civil service and handed out to normally independent companies to try and achieve the aim of the plan

    For many weeks there has been large capacity in the corvid testing,but seeing the need for more they have awarded two more labs to take up the overflow which was not expected to be needed so fast. If people do not obey the rules then yes as seen the virus runs wild hence the lock-downs springing up all over the country and Europe
    The ignorant blame the government for every problem but generally tend to be the cause of the problem in the first place
     
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    MBE2017

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    The ability of the government to throw money into our hats expired some time ago. The willingness to get into more debt to do so, for popularity reasons, will also expire soon.

    The Gov will probably have to find extra help/borrowing if it enforces another lockdown. One more lockdown of two weeks they might just getaway with no help, but if say they want 1 to 3 months lockdown over the next year, many will simply have to ignore the request and do whatever they need to.

    I will always argue, how people think others will act in normal times is one thing, if those people are starving, they will start stealing food within two days. Many people have no contingency savings for such things, so all hell will break loose come the next lot of lockdowns with no support.
     
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    The Gov will probably have to find extra help/borrowing if it enforces another lockdown. One more lockdown of two weeks they might just getaway with no help, but if say they want 1 to 3 months lockdown over the next year, many will simply have to ignore the request and do whatever they need to.

    I will always argue, how people think others will act in normal times is one thing, if those people are starving, they will start stealing food within two days. Many people have no contingency savings for such things, so all hell will break loose come the next lot of lockdowns with no support.

    Depends what support they need. This won't necessarily all be poor people becoming even poorer. A lot of it will be wealthier people having to lose cars, downsize homes and look for entirely new careers because theirs isn't there anymore.

    It's all about levels. Rug been pulled from a lot of industries that make people a lot of money.
     
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    Mr D

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    From what I have heard, the getting tested isn't the big problem, it's analysing the tests that is.

    No good having a test and it just sat in a tube for 48 hours because the labs can't keep up.

    And without lots of testing no one - not government, not medical staff, not ordinary people - know the extent of the spread.
    Makes all the current figures suspect too - just as we are about to hit peak flu season.
    Anyone want to guess the difference between flu and covid 19 without a test?
     
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    Forgot password

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    Have we reached Peak Insanity/Brainwashing in the UK? People driving for miles in the sun and then standing in a long queue in a face mask to get a test to see if they are ill. Please wake me up when this whole sorry saga is over.

    Plus let’s say you test negative at midday tomorrow- all good but you may catch the ‘virus’ at five past!.

    Where does this all end - what’s the exit strategy, it’s just not sustainable the way we are doing it. Cutting a leg off to treat a ingrowing toe nail comes to mind.
     
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    I

    Interestedobserver

    Hindsight is great and used by news headlines every day

    People seem to think that Ministers can micro manage all the problems be it Corvid, British rail or any other problem, that's not what they do, they make some decisions that are handles by the civil service and handed out to normally independent companies to try and achieve the aim of the plan

    For many weeks there has been large capacity in the corvid testing,but seeing the need for more they have awarded two more labs to take up the overflow which was not expected to be needed so fast. If people do not obey the rules then yes as seen the virus runs wild hence the lock-downs springing up all over the country and Europe
    The ignorant blame the government for every problem but generally tend to be the cause of the problem in the first place


    The news tonight says they have three times as many people trying to get tests who can get them
     
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    Forgot password

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    The news tonight says they have three times as many people trying to get tests who can get them

    ‘The news tonight’ you see that’s the problem.. ie the owned and controlled media plus how the hell do they know? But people will listen to them.

    Do you know how many Armish people have had or died from C19? Exactly Zero... you know why?

    They haven’t got TV or radio or iPhones.
     
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    Mr D

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    ‘The news tonight’ you see that’s the problem.. ie the owned and controlled media plus how the hell do they know? But people will listen to them.

    Do you know how many Armish people have had or died from C19? Exactly Zero... you know why?

    They haven’t got TV or radio or iPhones.

    You have a different source of news? Or just your belief?

    Are the Amish on the news as having no deaths from it?
    Or have they even been tested?

    Zero tests means zero die from it - even if they die unexpectedly from pneumonia.

    So have the bodies / sick Amish been tested before they die?
     
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    Forgot password

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    You have a different source of news? Or just your belief?

    Are the Amish on the news as having no deaths from it?
    Or have they even been tested?

    Zero tests means zero die from it - even if they die unexpectedly from pneumonia.

    So have the bodies / sick Amish been tested before they die?

    Whatever you say, i’m tired big fella so I will catch you tomorrow. Night night my friend.
     
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    ecommerce84

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    Have we reached Peak Insanity/Brainwashing in the UK? People driving for miles in the sun and then standing in a long queue in a face mask to get a test to see if they are ill. Please wake me up when this whole sorry saga is over.
    It is a bit crazy.

    One guy on our local Facebook group bemoaning the fact he couldn’t get a test anywhere locally, and he needed one urgently as he had symptoms. When probed the ‘symptoms’ turned out to be a runny nose and a headache so Dr Facebook prescribed a lemsip and a warm blanket. But still he insists he needs one.

    The common cold is doing the rounds at the moment - my nearly 2 year old had it a couple of weeks ago, a right snotty mess and a bit of a cough but it never dawned on us to get him (or my partner who subsequently caught it) tested. Even his nursery didn’t really blink an eyelid “loads of it going around” is what they said.

    With 230,000 people being tested and only 3,500 testing positive, I’d say many are confused on the symptoms. And a fair dose probably just want to be able to say they’ve been tested.
     
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    Mr D

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    PS - what was it you were on probation for years ago?

    Maybe tell us tomorrow unless of course you made it up.

    Night.

    (Hope it wasn’t what I think)

    You have not had many employed jobs????

    Common for a period of probation. 6 months in some jobs - basically you meet whatever standards in that time or they extend probation or they get rid of you.

    One job I had probation extended - the manager had no clue about the job and I was working 6 months ahead of results. I submit paperwork, result 6 months later.
     
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    Mr D

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    It is a bit crazy.

    One guy on our local Facebook group bemoaning the fact he couldn’t get a test anywhere locally, and he needed one urgently as he had symptoms. When probed the ‘symptoms’ turned out to be a runny nose and a headache so Dr Facebook prescribed a lemsip and a warm blanket. But still he insists he needs one.

    The common cold is doing the rounds at the moment - my nearly 2 year old had it a couple of weeks ago, a right snotty mess and a bit of a cough but it never dawned on us to get him (or my partner who subsequently caught it) tested. Even his nursery didn’t really blink an eyelid “loads of it going around” is what they said.

    With 230,000 people being tested and only 3,500 testing positive, I’d say many are confused on the symptoms. And a fair dose probably just want to be able to say they’ve been tested.

    Did read somewhere recently that almost half million people will be expected to have the flu in one month (presumably later in the year).
    And being a covid it's symptoms are similar. Feel terrible and have some of the known symptoms of covid 19 then expect lots of people to want testing. Potentially 450,000 tests just for that group in a month!
    And we are struggling now.

    Have had a cold several times this year. Plus other viruses as usual.
    People become ill, part of life. Though many appear not to want a few weeks isolated and sick with this virus, plus attendant risk of long covid, hospitalisation, disability or death.
    Disability sucks but better than dead. So I have heard. :)
     
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    UKSBD

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    This testing does seem crazy.

    If you think you have a highly contagious disease, get in your car, drive 50 miles, queue up with 100 other people who think they may have a highly contagious disease, then jump in your car to drive back home to your family.

    If you had it, you may have passed it on to others whilst waiting to get tested

    If you didn't have it, you may have caught it whilst waiting to get tested
     
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    This testing does seem crazy.

    If you think you have a highly contagious disease, get in your car, drive 50 miles, queue up with 100 other people who think they may have a highly contagious disease, then jump in your car to drive back home to your family.

    If you had it, you may have passed it on to others whilst waiting to get tested

    If you didn't have it, you may have caught it whilst waiting to get tested

    If you go by car the test is carried out whilst you are in the car. You are right about walk-in testing though.
     
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    Lisa Thomas

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    I haven't read all the replies do apologies if I am repeating something but it your business is insolvent with no prospect of trading out of it then you need to look at potential closure and/or insolvency procedures.

    The government scheme will kick in and pay the employees most, if not all monies due to them.
     
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    One tiny glimmer of hope for the OP if you're based near Wales then we still have the 30 people can gather outside (socially distanced) and not be related to each other rule. Perhaps you could make something of that?

    The only problem of course is that rule might change before you get organised.

    Are there 30 people in Wales who are not related to each other?
     
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    SillyBill

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    OP has legitimate grievance, my view is quite simple: mandated closure/restrictions = socialise the losses in perpetuity until the reversal of said decision. You order a private business to close or impinge on its ability to make money, you pay for it. I would say I was surprised at the lack of pushback here from "independently" minded people but I am not. It transpires that I have won the COVID lottery as after a very poor April and May we have been flying since with record sales due to the DIY boom. However, that point doesn't change my principles, namely an aversion to extraneous government interference in the running of my business (or indeed most aspects of my life) and I reserve all sympathy for those not so fortunate. Winners and losers have been picked; not sure I'd buy into anyone's "hype" this year under these circumstances and certainly not my own. The value of planning counts for little to my mind when the government seems to retain the right to change the rulebook by the week, and now by the hour with the latest curfew. Sadly the OP's business may have to close, that is the reality, unfortunately nothing you can do but dust yourself down and try and rebuild what the government has confiscated - best wishes in doing so.
     
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    Not been on this forum for a while so I thought I would look for 'adaptations' and ideas where event businesses are adapting to the changed trading circumstances. At present it is very difficult as rules keep changing. I run a wedding venue and we have smaller events such as ghost tours on quiet winter nights. While we could not do weddings (30 are in fact allowed in Wales but most couples do not want a wedding under current restrictions) we could still do ghost tours. So we fully booked out the Halloween period. Then the Rule of 6 came along, so we adapted the 10-15 person ghost tours to be 4 - 6 persons (all of whom have to be from the same extended household, in Wales). This just meant getting more tour guides to run the tours. Then we wondered if the tour guide was allowed to run a tour given they would make the gathering > 6 and the guide is not from the same family. Then the ghost tour company who offers the guides got worried about being fined if they did something they shouldn't. We are seeking clarification on all the isue of the ghost tour guides, but no amount of adapting can allow for ever changing rules aka 'moving the goalposts'. If we can offer our guests ghost and history tours, we can continue trading just about enough to keep a few staff on gainfully employed, but B&B only with no 'tour' type event cannot work in winter, as there is just not enough demand fr B&B alone, where we are.

    As to weddings, I have long ago said it is unlikely weddings will resume till April ish. We duly got our CBIL loan and cash-flowed it to last to various months based on various scenarios of some trading to no trading and various restart dates. Furlough was useful as it enabled us to delay redundancies and would have undoubtedly saved jobs if we could have resumed some sort o trading by Sept Oct. However a second wave in winter was always likely. As the various scenarious and options are now very much limited, so the numbers being made redundant is going to increase from 50% of all staff to nearer 90%. Furlough would have protected these jobs had we been able to start trading sooner. The later any resumption of trading looks, the fewer staff we can keep holding on to. Boris Johnson's statement it could be another 6 months of this has now caused us to shed more staff, but we could keep more but for the Rule of 6 and 10pm curfew etc. If necessary we can remain closed for a year and still be ready to open, the problem is the period of 'half opening' with very few guests, which is uneconomic. Most events venues need a certain 'critical mass' of guests to make a profit. For us, it may be cheaper to remain closed for longer, especially as wedding clients do not want a small wedding. If clients start asking for small weddings, or the limit goes up to say 40, then we can re-open. We have 200 weddings forward booked, all postponed, so no shortage of customer demand. Does that make us a viable business? Ordinarily. So sad that so many viable businesses can be deemed unviable due to the pandemic. It is case of just hanging on, for a year or so. Few will be able to do this. It is going to be carnage in the events business short to medium term, then it is going to be madly busy for those remaining in 8 - 10 months time.
     
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    The forward booked weddings. Have they all paid deposits?

    What happens if they want to cancel or want a refund etc?

    I think about 3 weddings out of 200 booked have given up and cancelled. A couple have had a small socially distanced Ceremony Only wedding with a handful of guests instead, and postponed the main 'wedding reception and party' a year or two forward. These couples will still have their full wedding event, including Ceremony (even though they are now married) using a wedding celebrant for the Ceremony, once COVID over.

    Standard contractual terms allow for refunds above the deposit but the deposit is retained if the wedding is cancelled. We can arrange for the deposit to be used towards some other future booking, such as a birthday event or some other party event, at any future date, to avoid wasting the deposit (this is in our interests too, as it secures a forward booking).

    There was technically a period during full lockdown where CMA guidelines indicated wedding contracts could be deemed 'frustrated' and therefore not enforceable, meaning a full refund would be due for cancellations during the period of lockdown. We had no refund requests during lockdown, because we introduced a clear and free of charge transfer forward system.

    Now that small weddings are allowed, a wedding can still go ahead, and so the contract can proceed, though they would have to reduce their booking numbers to the applicable regulations level (15 in England, 30 in Wales currently) and have a smaller 'socially distanced' wedding. However we have found most couples don't want the hassle of changing guest lists, suppliers and venue, nor do weddings want to cut their numbers, so 'market demand' has not created cancellation requests, just transfer requests.

    Should wedding numbers allowed increase to say 50, we anticipate some existing weddings will then decide to go ahead but with reduced guest numbers. But 30 is seen by most as too low, and they cannot mingle, dance, or party in the evening at the moment either!

    Transfers forward to subsequent years 'due to COVID' were offered by most venues for free. We allowed transfers ahead on the same tariffs as their original year / date. (Some venues may charge a higher rate for future years). With some going a year or two forward, even to 2022, their old tariffs represent better value than starting again somewhere new on new rates.

    Mostly though it is to do with convenience. If you as a wedding couple have spent ages planning and you've decided what you want at your wedding, where you want to get married, and you have confidence in all your chosen supplier and the venue planners, it is a big hassle to start over again. In many contracts, you could just decide to cancel, but with a wedding, unless you split up, you are not really going to cancel your wedding.

    All venues are now having trouble fitting everyone in, as two years worth of weddings are cramming into forward dates with some having to postpone a second time or even a third time. This means venues must give priority to existing customers moving forward into new dates. Some venues will not now accept new bookings, to keep dates clear for existing clients to postpone into. Many of our clients now have two dates - their original date, and a pencilled in forward date in case they need to postpone.

    Choosing a new venue with new suppliers is just too much hassle for people. Most clients want their original wedding plans with their original suppliers at their chosen venue to go ahead, it is just the date that has changed. We can bulk move all booking with the same suppliers, the same venue table and decor plans, and the same accommodation bookings for guests at the venue, everything just gets moved forward en masse to a new date by email. The guests do not even have to cancel and rebook their accommodation, as all guests B&B bookings just get moved forward en bloc for the Couple.
     
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    I

    Interestedobserver

    I genuinely fear for the amount of wedding deposits that will be lost at the many venues that won't survive this

    The cashflow of venues will be turned upside down

    Very few will pay new deposits for new weddings

    And many will be wary of making interim payments not knowing if and when they will actually be able to take their proposed wedding

    And I've no doubt many deposits will have been spent by those venues already

    Not blaming anybody including the venues as no business could have prepared for what's happened
     
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    I cannot speak for other venues but for our part we have additional assets - various houses and a farm which are (currently) unmortgaged and rented out on long lets - so unlike a lot of businesses, even with current borrowing, and the CBIL loan, we are not highly leveraged overall. But the longer this goes on, we might have to sell off some assets. If lots of businesses started doing this, then asset values could drop. As for customers, it might be sensible for future customers booking anything to pay any deposit using a credit card, in the current climate! This would protect funds in the event a venue did fold or an event is cancelled with a refund not being made by the supplier/ venue.
     
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    I

    Interestedobserver

    I cannot speak for other venues but for our part we have additional assets - various houses and a farm which are (currently) unmortgaged and rented out on long lets - so unlike a lot of businesses, even with current borrowing, and the CBIL loan, we are not highly leveraged overall. But the longer this goes on, we might have to sell off some assets. If lots of businesses started doing this, then asset values could drop. As for customers, it might be sensible for future customers booking anything to pay any deposit using a credit card, in the current climate! This would protect funds in the event a venue did fold or an event is cancelled with a refund not being made by the supplier/ venue.

    There is no way the credit card companies will be able to afford to keep honouring debts from the huge number of businesses that won't survive Covid

    Something significant will change with credit card payments soon enough

    Businesses will have to place large bonds with the card companies or have the card companies retain payments for many months before releasing which will destroy cashflow even more

    Certain industries will be huge risk for card companies to support

    Holidays, Hospitality, Hotels, Restaurants, Conferences etc

    All too prone to cancellations beyond their control
     
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    Mr D

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    They always have been vulnerable to payouts.

    However now as you say potentially a lot more. Multiple orders of magnitude more if people are smart.
    Same with insurance. Certain insurable things will be far more likely to pay out.


    Paid for by those insuring? Paid for by the public.

    Plus of course businesses having lower taxable profits so lower government income... Oh wait the government can change that. Get the public to pay more.
     
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