Minimum wage speculation for 2020

Discussion in 'General Business Forum' started by Talay, Aug 9, 2019.

  1. Talay

    Talay UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    In 2015 the NMW was forecast to be at least £9 an hour by 2020. That is effectively just over 6 months away.

    To get from the current £8.21 then it would need a 9.6% increase.

    If the Conservatives fail to reach their target by their date, surely it would cost them in an election.

    Thus, by one means or another, are we going to see at least £9 an hour by 2020 ?

    Then, if we do, who the heck is going to pay for it ?
     
    Posted: Aug 9, 2019 By: Talay Member since: Mar 12, 2012
    #1
  2. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Of things affecting who I vote for, minimum wage promises made years ago aren't in the top 100.

    Last rise as I recall was about 4.8%.

    Who is going to pay for it? The same people who have paid for the previous 20 plus increases.
     
    Posted: Aug 9, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #2
  3. NickGrogan

    NickGrogan UKBF Ace Free Member

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  4. ecommerce84

    ecommerce84 UKBF Regular Free Member

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    I don’t think it will hit £9 but where it lands will depend on the political situation - if Boris is hanging on and an election is looking likely then it could be somewhere around £8.75- £8.85.

    If he’s survived and looking comfy it would probably be £8.55 - £8.65.

    If he’s gone and Corbyn has taken his place then we’ll be paying 16 year olds £9. If anyone will employ them at that rate of course.

    Many minimum wage jobs will be lost to tech ultimately anyway, the faster the NMW increases, the faster the jobs will go.
     
    Posted: Aug 9, 2019 By: ecommerce84 Member since: Feb 24, 2007
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  5. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    More and more jobs become NMW ones.

    My wife escaped off minimum wage 2 years ago by getting a higher paid job. Same job now but she's on minimum wage.
    It caught her up.
     
    Posted: Aug 9, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #5
  6. Talay

    Talay UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    The greatest impact on a couple of my businesses is that hiring new staff, who are not immediately productive, means paying them a minimum of £8.21. The ripple effect is that those with some experience seek pay increases and thus the ripple widens and gaps further up become concertinaed.

    A consequence of NMW is a reduction in staff retention because everyone with a modicum of experience wants various increases over NMW and all wages up to around £15 per hour are annually threatened by huge above inflation NMW increases.

    It cannot continue. As quoted above, mechanisation will overtake the human element as costs have been pared to the bone in any case. I've just invested £250k in plant to reduce over £100k of salaries and I can see another 20 plus part time jobs, perhaps 12 FTE equivalents which is another £250/350k a year of salaries which are seriously under threat in the next couple of years.

    If NMW for idiots with no experience is £9 which is about £19k and you have 2 or 3 levels of seniority before £25k, then the seniority premium is going to be eroded or staff will be culled.

    Without NMW I believe I could hire some people for £5/6 per hour. Those jobs aren't worth £9 an hour but it means that jobs which might be worth £12 an hour are now only paying £10 per hour.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Talay Member since: Mar 12, 2012
    #6
  7. glengraving

    glengraving UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    the faster we can implement UBI
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: glengraving Member since: Jan 24, 2019
    #7
  8. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    And you'd be explaining then what UBI is?
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #8
  9. glengraving

    glengraving UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    Can't right now, too busy trying to justify my hourly NMW rate
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: glengraving Member since: Jan 24, 2019
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  10. Scalloway

    Scalloway UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Scalloway Member since: Jun 6, 2010
    #10
  11. glengraving

    glengraving UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    Has it been tried on a large scale?

    Because continued automation and overpopulation won't work either.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: glengraving Member since: Jan 24, 2019
    #11
  12. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Have either of those been tried on a large scale?
    Lets ask India and China if overpopulation works. Lets ask banks whether they make money from continued automation? I can go months without speaking to any bank employees while using systems to get money, pay money in, check balance, pay bills etc.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #12
  13. glengraving

    glengraving UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    I don't fancy living in China or India, tbf
     
    Last edited: Aug 10, 2019
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: glengraving Member since: Jan 24, 2019
    #13
  14. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #14
  15. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Perhaps no need to emigrate to either place.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #15
  16. glengraving

    glengraving UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    I'm all for automation and efficiency, the point is that it can't be at the expense of humans.

    There needs to be structural safeguards to mitigate the decimation of jobs -such as robot taxes going towards UBI, ensuring that it is viable to be underemployed without being desperate.

    UBI means we can spend our time doing things like caring for our older relatives or volunteering for community projects or creating art or just taking better care of our physical and mental health - all things which are important for society and won't be covered by Amazon Prime.

    It's utopian hokum though, obviously. Dystopia is more interesting anyway.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: glengraving Member since: Jan 24, 2019
    #16
  17. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Sorry, why can automation not be at the expense of humans?

    Humans want paying, they want to take time off sick, they get hurt, they want holiday. They do not want to work a 24 hour day.
    If I want my bank balance before ordering something I use automated systems. If I want some cash to use at the chippy I go to the cash machine. Automation works.

    We have a lot of automation in our banking. We have quite a bit of automation in our gardening. Want to try cutting your grass with hand tools only? Want to remove a tree using hand tools only, no machinery? Saws can take a while and stumps are a pain to dig up.

    Jobs are a cost of business. Why should jobs be kept when machines can do the work?
    What is the benefit to a business of employing more people?

    UBI - has worked where? Even in student days it was only time limited, few students would suggest that a few grand a year was enough.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #17
  18. Employment Law Clinic

    Employment Law Clinic UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    People have to make up their mind on automation.

    A few years ago, I remember the complaints - and even a BBC documentary, if I recall correctly - that staff working in Amazon depots had to walk miles every day to pick goods off shelves. These days, they complain the job is too mundane, as they just stand in one spot - the robots bring the shelves to them.

    If humans complain that they don't want to do a job, it's reasonable to expect automation to replace those tasks.


    Karl Limpert
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Employment Law Clinic Member since: Aug 10, 2009
    #18
  19. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    What the program didn't show was how far other workers in other companies have to walk for large logistics operations.
    Amazon workers judging by the program had it easy even walking.
    Nice light trolley...

    The repetitive jobs, the jobs not requiring much decision making, expect those eventually to be automated.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  20. glengraving

    glengraving UKBF Contributor Free Member

    86 37
    Because if we forget about the humans, we're destined for a dystopian hellscape?
    You're still talking as if I'm against automation?
    It's inevitable and potentially great for humanity - it's also potentially a nightmare. Hence why I'm hyped for an idea like UBI - because as more and more simple jobs go to machines, the people will need some way to not live in desperate squalor. It's not a tweak to the benefits system, it's an upheaval of how society thinks about living.
    And every institution we have is against radical change, so it's a bit of a pipe-dream, but somethings gotta give.

    In a few years time, self-driving cars will advance to the point that they can put every truck driver out of a job overnight. Eventually taxis and buses will follow (when passengers warm to the idea). Thats where I forsee a tipping point.
    It's never been tested on a large enough scale to really judge, afaik. We'd need several first world nations to turn their economic/taxation systems upside-down at once to really know.
     
    Posted: Aug 10, 2019 By: glengraving Member since: Jan 24, 2019
    #20