Has anyone else had a big drop off in business since late January ?

Discussion in 'General Business Forum' started by Justin Smith, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Full Member

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    I disagree with that. If people are reluctant to spend money because they fear (rightly in my opinion) a "No Deal" Brexit, why would they suddenly start spending money immediately after we leave without a deal ? It`s illogical. More likely they`d wait an indeterminate time to see how it panned out. At best the UK economy would be negatively affected (even hard core Brexiteers grudgingly accept that) the only question is to what degree and for how long. It may be less of a negative and for a shorter time than some commentators are predicting but it will have the effect of reducing demand, and let`s remember this is what I`m experiencing in a big way now, it`s not a prediction...… At the risk of digressing this does all bring into sharp focus some uncomfortable questions about Brexit, now is it fair I`m being negatively affected when I didn`t want it or vote for it !
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
    #21
  2. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    FFS let's not turn it into yet another Brexit whine!

    The fact is that an inevitable response to uncertainty is inertia - which is what we are seeing.

    You have, like me, have witnesses at least 2 recessions in your business life - One of the upsides of a tough market is that it weeds out the cowboys and the weak - and over the last decade the number of flimsy 'not-quite businesses' has soared.

    As an established, experienced, solvent operator the current slow down could actually end up being very good for you.
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
    #22
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  3. DavidWH

    DavidWH UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    With @Mark T Jones on this.

    I haven't given 'brexit' a second thought. We're keeping cash in the business, to tide us over any quiet spells.

    Good riddance to any of the weaker competition who are operating on a shoe string.
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: DavidWH Member since: Feb 15, 2011
    #23
  4. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    This!
    and this!

    One of the economic functions of a recession is to weed out the weak and get rid of those who are 'over-leveraged' (i.e. in too much debt) and failed to use the good times to build up equity in their businesses.

    Or as Warren Buffett put it - "When the tide goes out, you get to see who has been swimming naked!"
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
    #24
  5. Andy Harris

    Andy Harris UKBF Contributor Full Member

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    I've posted elsewhere on this forum about this, but one tip (if you have a website) is to review levels of relevant visitors (e.g. from your geographical target area) to your website, over periods of time - sometimes a drop-off in that indicates less people searching for products/services.

    Another thought came from a contact who believes that individual people are getting to the point where their credit levels are maxxed out (i.e. finding it tougher to pay back their interest/minimum payments and so aren't spending as much) ... and the knock-on effect that can have. His (contact view): batten down the hatches in 2019.
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: Andy Harris Member since: Oct 3, 2009
    #25
  6. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    And so starts the recessionary cycle:)) Not that a blame anyone for exercising caution; but that is basically how it works..
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
    #26
  7. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Yes.
    Decisions are made by government affecting you many times without you wanting it or voting for it.
    We don't live in a society where we choose what impact the decisions of others have.
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #27
  8. Mitch3473

    Mitch3473 UKBF Regular Free Member

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    Cannot agree more.
     
    Posted: Feb 14, 2019 By: Mitch3473 Member since: Aug 25, 2011
    #28
  9. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Full Member

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    I`m grateful for it being pointed out I should be thankful for my suffering *, but, assuming at least part of it is down to Brexit (and I personally cannot think of any other factor) can anyone tell me when it`s going to get better ?

    * Personally I`d have though that, logically, in tough times it`s those selling lower quality stuff at a miniscule profit margin who are more likely to do well, so I`m not sure I agree with your basic premise anyway.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
    #29
  10. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Full Member

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    You are of course entirely correct that the first thing any business (based on a website) should do - if suffering a fall off in business - is check the number of people visiting its site. I have done so and it`s pretty stable, or, to put it another way, site visits haven`t gone down anywhere near as much as turnover.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
    #30
  11. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    When its going to get better?
    A decade or two. Maybe sooner. Maybe later.
    Need a lot more information that isn't currently available to be more accurate.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #31
  12. Noah

    Noah UKBF Ace Free Member

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    I think both assessments - tough times weed out the week, or tough times are a bigger opportunity for the dodgy operators - are simplistic, but your point is well made.

    As another (simplistic example) : a properly-run business can still become unprofitable, and should then be properly closed down. A similar business run by weasels will start dodging tax, reducing quality, not pay suppliers, maybe even phoenix the business - and get away with it for an indeterminate period.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Noah Member since: Sep 1, 2009
    #32
  13. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    This only applies if all you worry about is profit.

    There's more to running a business than just profit. Downturns happen and you have to be ready for them when they do. A properly run business survives downturns and recessions. Indeed, it expects them and uses them to gain market share.

    Have a read here - https://www.ukbusinessforums.co.uk/articles/is-the-pursuit-of-equity-a-better-business-model.925/
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
    #33
  14. Chris Ashdown

    Chris Ashdown UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Unfortunately many see reserves as potential dividends, rather than future proofing rainy days
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Chris Ashdown Member since: Dec 7, 2003
    #34
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  15. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    I'm not talking about reserves - that is just unused resources. I'm talking about equity. Value, if you like.

    If you lease all the vehicles, rent the shop, have outside investors or get listed and issue shares, the risks are high and you are less likely to survive a downturn in trade. You only have to look at the rise and rise of Aldi and Lidl in every market they enter, as soon as the economy starts to fail.

    They are self-financing, private, family-owned companies. They thrive on recessions and people still have to eat! They own all their own shops (with minor exceptions in some markets) and they don't play silly sale-or-return games with 120-day payment targets.

    It may mean that growth has to be that much slower and can take generations to realise. Aldi is reported to have a strategy for the next 100 years! (Whether that's true or not, they certainly have been remarkably long-sighted.) When they move into a new national market, they know it takes at least 30 years to achieve a mature position in that market.

    But a recession helps to accelerate the process!
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
    #35
  16. Davek0974

    Davek0974 UKBF Ace Free Member

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    I think that has a big effect on many people and as you say, its irresponsible. Things would be a lot brighter if the Govt and media just on board with Brexit as it will happen, we just don't know in what form.

    My sales on eBay according to the charts are down 40% on last year, its very quiet, but i have reorganised my workshop and sorted a few other things out so its not time wasted.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Davek0974 Member since: Mar 7, 2008
    #36
  17. Gordon - Commercial Finance

    Gordon - Commercial Finance UKBF Ace Free Member

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    What's the phrase about fiddling while Rome burns?
    I've also been out in the workshop a lot this month - just about completed a motorbike restoration.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Gordon - Commercial Finance Member since: Jun 26, 2017
    #37
  18. Davek0974

    Davek0974 UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Lol, i kept money aside to tide it over, plus its a home-business and as yet not needing to provide full income for me.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Davek0974 Member since: Mar 7, 2008
    #38
  19. Gordon - Commercial Finance

    Gordon - Commercial Finance UKBF Ace Free Member

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    That's ok I wasn't actually insinuating that your Rome was burning....its just what came to mind when I thought about how much time I've spent in my shed...
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Gordon - Commercial Finance Member since: Jun 26, 2017
    #39
  20. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Luckily profit can help in a downturn or when something unexpected happens and you have the money on hand to deal with it because you have made a profit.
    Amazon went years with no profits, has had more years of low profits - but it made profit on much of its sales in order to - as you say - gain market share.
     
    Posted: Feb 15, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
    #40