Has anyone else had a big drop off in business since late January ?

Discussion in 'General Business Forum' started by Justin Smith, Feb 11, 2019.

  1. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Full Member

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    How is business in your business ?
    I have to say we have experienced an unprecedented fall off since late January. It`s so bad it`s almost comforting as it indicates very strongly that something significantly out of the ordinary is happening. I don`t know whether it`s Brexit related but I cannot think of any other factor. If you`d have asked my a year ago if Brexit would affect my business I`d have thought it unlikely to have a significant effect, certainly not the huge drop off we`ve experienced. But, on the other hand, apparently there are people stockpiling stuff for fear of a no deal Brexit, so it`s not unreasonable to suppose there are also many holding back on spending if they can. In our case either putting off purchasing that decent quality TV aerial system or deciding to go for a cheaper lower quality set up off E Bay. I`m just trying to reassure myself I suppose !
     
    Posted: Feb 11, 2019 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
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  2. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    In 2 decades of selling to the public with multiple businesses I think I've only had two years where February was higher sales than January.
    Usually February is my quietest month - so far that seems to be what is likely to happen this year.

    Taking the time to reorganise, scout out more Christmas stock and some new types of product for us.
     
    Posted: Feb 11, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  3. BusterBloodvessel

    BusterBloodvessel UKBF Regular Free Member

    148 53
    We have two food businesses, a 6 day a week shop front & a 1 day a week delivery business. Both have really taken a hit in the last couple of weeks - although January was slightly better than expected! In fact our lowest takings days so far this year have come in Feb rather than Jan.

    I can't say I'd expect Brexit to have an impact on our business right now but it seems odd. So if it's any reassurance...you're not the only one!
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: BusterBloodvessel Member since: Jan 22, 2018
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  4. Gordon - Commercial Finance

    Gordon - Commercial Finance UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Definitely been quiet....I don't think it is all Brexit-related as Brexit should be making at least part of my business a bit busier.
    Not concerned just yet! Maybe people are on pause for now until we see what's actually going to happen politically.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Gordon - Commercial Finance Member since: Jun 26, 2017
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  5. Mark T Jones

    Mark T Jones UKBF Big Shot Full Member

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    Marked inclination to delay capex - almost certainly related to uncertainty around Brexit (as opposed to Brexit itself)

    Having said that, some brave new projects are pushing ahead.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Mark T Jones Member since: Nov 4, 2015
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  6. Scott-Copywriter

    Scott-Copywriter UKBF Legend Full Member - Verified Business

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    The economy of any country is a very complex beast that's interconnected in all sorts of strange ways. It just takes one company to experience a particularly hard hit that ripples through a chain of other businesses and people.

    Consumer confidence is a factor as well. Even if someone isn't directly impacted by Brexit, the whole charade can make people more cautious. The consumer confidence index peaked back up around late 2015, but since the referendum it's been on a steady decline to a five-year low.

    The worry now is that if we leave without a deal, this uncertainty is set to continue for a few years yet. A no deal Brexit certainly doesn't shut the book and provide clarity on what happens next. Many unanswered questions will remain.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Scott-Copywriter Member since: May 10, 2006
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  7. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    We are in the middle of a brave new project and I must admit that I have put equipment purchases on hold, as our money is in Euros and our business depends on the free movement of labour. But that is a question of exchange rates and equipment costs. If there is a so-called 'hard' Brexit, we have decided that we shall close shop in the UK and I shall return to Germany and watch the Good Ship SS-UK slowly sink into gentile poverty.

    As things stand, I doubt there will be any Brexit at all and we are going ahead with our plans as if all that nonsense never happened.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
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  8. Mitch3473

    Mitch3473 UKBF Regular Free Member

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    Late january...precisely. Since then a largish drop compared to the last few years although february is our quietist month. We tend to be a bit of a conduit for businesses we deal with and a recent phone round to client suggests business is down. A few use the usual go to excuse Brexit but maybe people are keeping their powder dry.
    I seem to remember something similar with the Y2K fiasco and that proved to be a damp squib.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Mitch3473 Member since: Aug 25, 2011
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  9. Justin Smith

    Justin Smith UKBF Enthusiast Full Member

    562 57
    Pro Rata our drop off since late January has been not far off 50%. I accept that is "only" over about three weeks, but a decline that large has NEVER happened before in 24 years of business. As I said in the opener, it`s so bad it`s almost comforting, assuming one can just blame Brexit obviously.....
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Justin Smith Member since: Jun 6, 2012
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  10. Chris Ashdown

    Chris Ashdown UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Major shop chains are closing with redundancies around the country, empty shops in most towns, I just think people are being cautious with their dosh and only spending when necessary.

    Brexit worries, E-commerce giants knocking other retailers for six, USA increases import tax 10% and hits Chinese makers so they probably dump things around the world to stay active, just look on ebay and Amazon to see the silly prices now available

    Not much joy around for next few months with Government dealing with Brexit which must be to the detriment of other important things
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Chris Ashdown Member since: Dec 7, 2003
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  11. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    We had those for a chunk of last year too. Did turnover go up or down last year?

    May be a thousand different things affecting turnover, some helping some harming at any one time.
    We often call the negative side 'Brexit' though in reality it could be 40 different things we cannot see affecting turnover that way.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  12. ineedadollar

    ineedadollar UKBF Regular Free Member

    279 14
    Yes
    im down 30% on my average daily sales from last month so far. + with it being a short month its abit worrying, Trying to add more revenue streams to the business to help it stay stable
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: ineedadollar Member since: Sep 8, 2011
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  13. dan19900

    dan19900 UKBF Regular Free Member

    234 41
    Came in to check if anyone mentioned Brexit, I wasn't disappointing lol.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: dan19900 Member since: Mar 2, 2018
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  14. GTL

    GTL UKBF Regular Free Member

    182 30
    That's a useful, constructive comment.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: GTL Member since: Sep 18, 2017
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  15. pelparc

    pelparc UKBF Regular Free Member

    265 34
    Pot & Kettle....

    I have 2 main business (both chicken feed to many here, but do provide me with a nice life).
    One is a consumer based website and the other is an custom made electronic test product. The consumer based sales like most here have dropped, not unusual for February maybe a bit more than normal. The other which depends on new designs reaching the test stage in development and that has been very busy since late mid January. I think the news is effecting consumer spending if your told daily that every shop is closing, your poorer and in a few weeks you will starve its bound to have an effect. Totally irresponsible.
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: pelparc Member since: Apr 10, 2017
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  16. Dimo

    Dimo UKBF Regular Free Member

    105 18
    I think the general mood is uncertainty, not helped by Brexit. In fact I sold a Porsche recently and spurned an offer from one potential buyer who seemed to think I'd let it go cheaply and made a derisory offer "because of Brexit" he said. o_O

    As for retail, some key trends for 2019 according to one source:- https://www.odgersinterim.com/uk/who-we-are/intelligence/retail-sector-key-trends-for-2019-4746/

    And here is Retail Gazette's take on it:- https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2019/01/what-does-2019-entail-for-retailers/
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: Dimo Member since: Jul 23, 2007
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  17. simon field

    simon field UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

    4,011 1,495
    Turning work away at an alarming rate here in the manufacturing heartland that is rural Norfolk!
     
    Posted: Feb 12, 2019 By: simon field Member since: Feb 4, 2011
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  18. Mitch3473

    Mitch3473 UKBF Regular Free Member

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    Nothing new there, I thought most people in Norfolk turned work away ;)
     
    Posted: Feb 13, 2019 By: Mitch3473 Member since: Aug 25, 2011
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  19. DavidWH

    DavidWH UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

    1,396 254
    Lots of estimating, but slow converting.

    Spent the quiet period working on internal stuff, that has dragged on for months.

    The old man has gone away for a week in the sun. Cash flow is certainly buoyant at the moment.

    However, trying to get quotes from some suppliers, it's like they don't want the work! Then they ring up asking if there's any work as they're quiet.
     
    Posted: Feb 13, 2019 By: DavidWH Member since: Feb 15, 2011
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  20. Lucky8

    Lucky8 UKBF Contributor Free Member

    87 14
    I think morale generally is low and people haven't got themselves together for 2019 yet, if you see what I mean. It's Brexit-related, not because of Brexit (which hasn't happened yet) or 'no deal', because we'll be fine, but because of the uncertainty created by May and the negotiators which has been such a disaster. We just need to leave in March, and then businesses and people can get on with their lives and thrive.
     
    Posted: Feb 13, 2019 By: Lucky8 Member since: Jan 17, 2019
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