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Global Recession Coming

Discussion in 'General Business Forum' started by TheLithoPrinter, Jun 19, 2008.

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  1. TheLithoPrinter

    TheLithoPrinter UKBF Newcomer Free Member

    68 0
    Do you think there is a recession coming or not?:p
     
    Posted: Jun 19, 2008 By: TheLithoPrinter Member since: Sep 24, 2007
    #1
  2. Cornish Steve

    Cornish Steve UKBF Newcomer Full Member

    14,858 2,117
    Absolutely not.

    Britain's economy is doing well: low inflation, low unemployment, low interest rates, etc. Of course, things will never be perfect, and the media will always whine about something. The US has not been in a recession (no negative growth for two quarters) and all signs are that the country is already recovering.

    The big danger is that the irresponsible commentators will negatively affect consumer confidence when they whine about recession or even depression, despite our economic numbers looking good. Consumer confidence is the single biggest factor because it determines whether people will buy. If the media continue whining for long enough, they could make another downturn a self-fulfilling prophecy.

    It's about time our leaders started promoting the health of our economy instead of complaining. It's what leaders are supposed to do: inspire.
     
    Posted: Jun 19, 2008 By: Cornish Steve Member since: Jul 4, 2005
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  3. suspicious

    suspicious UKBF Newcomer Free Member

    24 3
    Am involved in a couple of industries and have contacts/friends in others.

    Been reviewing forward orders for my secondary business (IT B2B) and all the indications are that companies are beginning to shelf or put on hold major investment decisions. Projects that were previously at the discretion of a single individual now require board approval. Also the lag between invoicing and payment is getting longer and longer with more and more stupid queries being raised about the invoices.
    In IT (investment sector) and construction, we feel the effects of a recession before anyone else and are the first to recover from it.

    Primary business (consumer) also suffering - up to April were good to average. Early indications for June tend to indicate a significant fall in revenue - cant put a finger on it - still reviewing figures.

    Friends and contacts also reporting a drop in revenues - Fast Foods, Travel Agency, Garages. These drops are above and beyond cyclical monthly variances, especially in the last two months.

    Credit crunch (business funding) , mortgage rates, fuel increases, council/business rates, energy costs are now starting to affect us all.

    My advice, review terms of credit, tighten belts - but in the meantime please keep talking the economy up. But above all get your customers to pay on time - Im fed up with having to review cash flows and having to keep an eye on the bank balances.
     
    Posted: Jun 19, 2008 By: suspicious Member since: Oct 17, 2007
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  4. telemax

    telemax UKBF Big Shot Free Member

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    Nobody is predicting the economy actually contracting which is the correct definition of a recession. Yes there is a slowdown, ie the economy growing sluggishly, the media are certainly overegging the situation, they have certainly sunk there teeth into gloom and doom and comparing it with the 70's etc.

    Which brings me to my next point, people survived the 70's with 27% inflation, oil in real terms as expensive as now, 3 day weeks, rotting rubbish in the streets and the unions holding the country to ransom. I really doubt there is much chance of it getting as bad as that.
     
    Posted: Jun 19, 2008 By: telemax Member since: Feb 14, 2006
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  5. Estimator

    Estimator UKBF Regular Free Member

    473 98
    i disagree, Britain's economy is not doing well at all.
    Rising inflation, rising unemployment and rising interest rates are what we will have in the near future.
    It's not the fault of the media, they are just reporting what is happening:fuel and food prices, companies closing, unions starting to organise industrial action etc.
    Ignore it if you like, but it won't go away! ;)
     
    Posted: Jun 20, 2008 By: Estimator Member since: Feb 22, 2008
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  6. Mr_Wizard

    Mr_Wizard UKBF Regular Free Member

    171 26
    Actually (Estimator) Britains economy is thriving: on one a half trillion pounds worth of debt and a government that has sold just about anything worth selling. Oh yes, let's not forget the governments levels of borrowing.

    I watched Das Boot with my son the other night - a vessel getting into deeper and deeper water while the crew ran around trying to plug the ever increasing number of leaks. If they ever do a remake forget Jurgen Prochnow - a role made for Gordon Brown and his crew.
     
    Posted: Jun 20, 2008 By: Mr_Wizard Member since: Jan 10, 2008
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  7. DIY Accounting

    DIY Accounting UKBF Newcomer Free Member

    701 129
    We are heading into difficult times not seen for a few decades.
    A global recession is unlikely, certainly growth is slowing particularly in western economies but gobally the growth is still 4 to 5% and will probably continue fueld by the expoansion in the Indian and Chinese economies.

    Some people will obviously face difficult times but as earlier posts have mentioned no need to worry about everything but concentrate on your own situation.
    Negative equity probably not a problem provided you bought 2/3 years ago.
    Inflation lessons from the past should help keep nthat going to the ridiculous levels seen in the 1970's but actually that was great for some people. I remember buying a house in the early 70's, my wages went up in line with inflation and my house value doubled in 2 years.
    Not expecting the same this time of course but with wage inflation at 5% over say the next 3 years and a house price drop of say 10% this year and then flattening out The combined effect since house prices generally follow wage inflation would be the equivalent of a 30% drop in house value (but real price only down 10%).

    That is probably a big enough adjustment and while mortgage and housing problems will hit the headlines with negative equity and repossessions etc., etc., Over 95% of people will not be affected and it will put more youngsters on the housing ladder so good things too.
     
    Posted: Jun 20, 2008 By: DIY Accounting Member since: Oct 4, 2007
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