Are we at the limit of lockdown easing in the UK?

Discussion in 'COVID-19 Forum' started by Interestedobserver, Jul 31, 2020 at 4:57 PM.

  1. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Analysis: We're now at the limit of lockdown easing

    James Gallagher
    Health and science correspondent, BBC News

    "This is it. We are now, give or take, at the absolute limit of how much we can reopen society without a resurgence of coronavirus.

    This realisation at the heart of government is about more than delaying the opening of bowling alleys, it will define our lives for months to come - and probably until we have a vaccine.

    And I'm sorry to break it to parents, but the biggest question mark now is around the reopening of schools.

    Over the past two weeks the number of confirmed infections has started to creep up again."

    Depressing but I kind of think he's correct
     
    Posted: Jul 31, 2020 at 4:57 PM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  2. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Think we may have passed the limit several pubs ago.
    That pub in Stone....

    By what I hear its not the only one.

    While I'm looking at it as a low order probability I am factoring another lockdown into planning.
     
    Posted: Jul 31, 2020 at 5:12 PM By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  3. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    I've just read a report that claims less than half the UK population are observing social distance rules
     
    Posted: Jul 31, 2020 at 7:22 PM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  4. Ian J

    Ian J Factoring Specialist Full Member - Verified Business

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    Which puts paid to Boris's idea that we can all rely on the good sense of the British people.

    We're off to Spain next weekend and it annoys me that my life could be put at risk by some (probably young) t0sser that doesn't have the common courtesy to keep his distance.

    Perhaps if all people who didn't wish to contract this disease and behaved appropriately were issued with tasers others would respect their personal space more
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 7:08 AM By: Ian J Member since: Nov 6, 2004
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  5. Bob Morgan

    Bob Morgan UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Source?
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 8:40 AM By: Bob Morgan Member since: Apr 15, 2018
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  6. Ian J

    Ian J Factoring Specialist Full Member - Verified Business

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    15 seconds on Google will bring up the source
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 9:03 AM By: Ian J Member since: Nov 6, 2004
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  7. gpietersz

    gpietersz UKBF Ace Full Member

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    Assuming this is the source: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...cial-distancing-times-ONS-survey-reveals.html it also says:

    "Some 31 per cent said they kept a distance ‘often’"

    so 78% are being reasonably careful, but not every single time.

    and:

    "3 per cent said they ‘never’ carried out social distancing."

    There were quite a lot of of people not obeying the rules during the lockdown. Remember the KCL study? That was before we had things like mass protests and warm weather bringing people out more.
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 9:13 AM By: gpietersz Member since: Sep 10, 2019
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  8. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    That wasn't my source. Can't remember but will go and have a look
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 9:54 AM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  9. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Just over half of us abide by social distancing guidelines - The Telegraph
    17 Jul 2020 · Only 55 per cent of Britons 'always' maintain one-metre gap when meeting friends, according to ONS

    That wasn't the source either - but it's the first one that came up. I can't post the full article as you have to subscribe to get it

    I assume whatever I read was also quoting from the same ONS stats
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 9:57 AM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  10. Jeff FV

    Jeff FV UKBF Big Shot Staff Member

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    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 10:05 AM By: Jeff FV Member since: Jan 10, 2009
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  11. DEFCON1

    DEFCON1 UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    As a parent I’m sorry to break it to you that it will be the Number One Top Priority of finding a way of getting kids back to school.
    Not only for welfare of children but to get the economy going by allowing people back to work who can’t currently do so.
    They could not have been clearer that this will mean rolling back other measures. Probably quite a lot to earn the required trade off.

    Personally, I don’t think a strategy of Slow Reverse of measures will work. People will be far less likely to follow the rules.
    Therefore I wouldn’t be at all surprised that sometime in August we actually have a Full National Lockdown again (something like a couple of weeks).
    This would help ensure rules are followed and create new starting point.

    We’re already anticipating this and planning for it.
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 1:15 PM By: DEFCON1 Member since: May 28, 2016
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  12. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Whatever is closed / reduced in capacity / has altered rules you can bet some will cry unfair. And some will demand schools remain shut.
    Girl down the street is a TA, she'd be one of those demanding schools remain shut. Something to do with health & safety at work - if other workplaces can be made safe, can schools as workplaces?

    I'm anticipating sometime in next 6 months having a major lockdown. The stock to hold is dependent on the date - a few days notice will work. Or even more like last time.
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 1:49 PM By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  13. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53621613

    Re the above 2 posts. The Chief Medical Officer has just suggested pubs may have to close again in order to allow schools to open.

    That's the trade off suggestion.

    Hard to argue with. But what a debate that will start.
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 3:59 PM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  14. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Unfortunately there may not be a trade off for the virus.

    If the schools become the epicentre of new infections then impacts a considerable chunk of the workforce. Including those who work with kids, those who sell to kids and of course those who have kids.
     
    Posted: Aug 1, 2020 at 6:12 PM By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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  15. DEFCON1

    DEFCON1 UKBF Contributor Free Member

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    1. Getting kids back to school will be Top Priority.
    2. Simply closing pubs won’t even come close to the measures required to be rolled back to enable that to happen.
     
    Posted: Aug 2, 2020 at 8:15 AM By: DEFCON1 Member since: May 28, 2016
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  16. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    Victoria in Australia had to introduce a 6 week lockdown to get their infections back down

    3 weeks in - it's not worked and now they've had to introduce a state of disaster notice with night time curfews etc and restrictions on leaving your home full stop

    And they were in such a better position than we were

    I fear for what is coming our way next few months as we won't even do things as well as they have and they can't get things back under control
     
    Posted: Aug 2, 2020 at 8:46 AM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  17. Interestedobserver

    Interestedobserver UKBF Enthusiast Free Member

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    What are the new restrictions in Victoria?
    • Victoria will move into stage-four restrictions at 18:00 (09:00 BST) on Sunday, placing further limits on the movement of people
    • A night-time curfew, between from 20:00 to 05:00, will be implemented across Melbourne
    • The only reasons for leaving home during these hours will be work, medical care or care-giving
    • Melbourne residents will only be allowed to shop and exercise within 5 km (3.1 miles) of their home
    • Exercise outside of the home will only be allowed for one hour at a time
    • All students across the state will return to home-based learning and childcare centres will be closed
    • Regional Victoria will move to stage-three restrictions from Thursday, meaning restaurants, cafes, bars and gyms will close
     
    Posted: Aug 2, 2020 at 9:10 AM By: Interestedobserver Member since: Apr 15, 2020
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  18. gpietersz

    gpietersz UKBF Ace Full Member

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    Schools, especially primary schools, are safe workplaces.

    Most of the people in them are children who are the least likely to spread or get covid. IF teachers socially distance from each other and take other simple precautions it will be far safer (with regard to covid) to work in a school than to work in a supermarket or drive a bus or any job that involves contact with adults.
     
    Posted: Aug 2, 2020 at 9:22 AM By: gpietersz Member since: Sep 10, 2019
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  19. fisicx

    fisicx It's Major Clanger! Staff Member

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    Don't agree. Because we were late moving to lockdown a lot more people will have been infected and may well have a level of immunity. Which is why we aren't seeing significant rises in reported cases. Those area where there is a rise appear to have a higher proportion of ethnic groups where these groups appear to be in the higher rise category.

    @Interestedobserver - you are just regurgitating stories from around the world without any form of analysis. You can't compare AUS/NZ to the UK. Stop scaremongering.
     
    Posted: Aug 2, 2020 at 9:30 AM By: fisicx Member since: Sep 12, 2006
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  20. Mr D

    Mr D UKBF Legend Free Member

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    We were not that late moving to lockdown. By what has been reported we appear to be still mostly vulnerable to getting it.
    And those who have had it may well find immunity lasting just weeks or months. So get it in first half of the year and maybe still get it in 2nd half - indeed with a chance of being more vulnerable to problems due to effects.
     
    Posted: Aug 2, 2020 at 9:54 AM By: Mr D Member since: Feb 12, 2017
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