All Malaysian Flight 370 could be still alive and kicking

Discussion in 'Time Out' started by Swisaw, Mar 26, 2014.

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  1. faradaykeynes

    faradaykeynes UKBF Ace Full Member - Verified Business

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    Have you ever tried driving over a small puddle on motorway at speed of 70mph, if not try it, you will be very surprised to know the reaction from water. Aircraft crashing into deep rough waters at this scale is not much different from crashing on land
    see this and its just shallow waters
     
    Posted: Apr 14, 2014 By: faradaykeynes Member since: Apr 19, 2012
  2. Swisaw

    Swisaw UKBF Ace Full Member

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    No certainly not. According to the available information, it is highly likely that this plane was commandeered, hijacked, to the middle of the ocean. Although other reasons can not be ruled out. When you weigh and compare available information, you will give 80% to the hijack probability. So if it was a hijack the plane ought to have landed on an unknown airport in the ocean or the hijackers parachuted out to a waiting ship or submarine or the plane landed in the oceans in an orderly way on the sea and met by something like a ship or submarine.

    If you agree with hijack scenario but disagree with my reasons for the hijacked plane gone to the ocean can you please give a better convincing reasons!!!
     
    Posted: Apr 14, 2014 By: Swisaw Member since: Sep 24, 2010
  3. Swisaw

    Swisaw UKBF Ace Full Member

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    This plane was out of control. I assume a controlled landing but I am not insisting on my view. I am merely speculating as it could be so.The following is another landing:

     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2014
    Posted: Apr 14, 2014 By: Swisaw Member since: Sep 24, 2010
  4. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    The pilot of plane crashing in to the sea was actually trying to make a controlled ditching...

    Are you seriously trying to suggest that the video you have linked to is even remotely comparable to a 777 ditching in the middle of the ocean????????????

    John
     
    Posted: Apr 14, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  5. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Try this then John,ditching is highly survivable ,as a purveyor of jetskis and high speed craft hitting water is nothing like hitting concrete as has been suggested.

    http://www.equipped.com/ditchingmyths.htm
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
  6. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    The video that Swisaw linked to appeared to show a small commercial aircraft sliding off the end of a runway in to a river which even you must agree is incomparable to a 777 landing in the middle of the ocean 1500 miles from anywhere.

    The page you linked to (I don't know if you read it all) says that, of the 8 years worth of ditchings they examined, 84 percent were of single engine aircraft leaving only 16 percent having more than one engine and it makes no mention of how many of those 16 percent were commercial airliners.

    A small, single engine aircraft is a magnitude easier to ditch that a commercial airliner so, not a realistic comparison to the 777 at all. I'd be interested to see what the survival rate is for passengers of large commercial airliners that have ditched is...

    Interesting that the FAA only mandates that commercial pilots are only familiar with the procedure for a water landing, they have no requirement that pilots practice in a simulator.

    John
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  7. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    An, admittedly, quick Google has turned up only two instances where commercial airliners have ditched at sea, data from this site: http://www.airsafe.com/

    –May 1970; ALM DC9-33CF; near St. Croix, U.S. Virgin Islands: The aircraft had departed JFK airport in New York for St. Maarten in the Netherlands Antilles. After three missed approaches, the crew diverted to St. Croix. While en route, the aircraft ran out of fuel and the crew ditched the aircraft. While the flight crew made specific preparations for ditching, the imminent ditching was not communicated to the cabin crew. As a result, several occupants were not belted in at the time of the ditching. The aircraft remained afloat for five to six minutes before sinking in waters about one mile (1600 meters) deep. One of the six crew members and 22 of the 57 passengers were killed. The accident was investigated by the NTSB and the details are available in NTSB report NTSB-AAR-71-8 dated 31 March 1971.

    – Nov. 23 1996; Ethiopian Airlines 767-200ER; near Moroni, Comoros Islands: The aircraft was on a flight from Ethiopia to Kenya when it was hijacked by at least two people. While attempting a landing near Moroni in the Comoros Islands the aircraft ran out of fuel and ditched near a beach. Ten of the 12 crew members and 117 of the 160 passengers were killed. The three hijackers apparently died.


    Which, if my maths is correct, gives around a 23% survival rate...

    John
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  8. sirearl

    sirearl UKBF Legend Free Member

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    Its a very rare occurrence for a passenger plane to have to ditch.

    Seems the odds for large passenger aircraft is surprisingly pretty good though,probably why they carry lifejackets and liferafts.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_landing#Passenger_airplane_water_ditchings
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: sirearl Member since: Apr 23, 2007
  9. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    Fortunately so.

    The page you linked to contains all water landings, if you read it all you'll find that out of the 30+ water landings listed, only 4 were ditchings at sea and at least one of them could hardly be described as a large passenger aircraft...
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  10. Swisaw

    Swisaw UKBF Ace Full Member

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    He was very brave, he was turning anti clock wise to avoid the shore, which was packed with holiday makers. If he was landing under control on a straight line the plane wouldn't have overturned and no one would have hurt.

    yes it is comparable. The law of the physics is the same for large or small bodies. The body of jumbo jet could replace more water comparing to its weight than this small plane. This i an executive plane, which could have a smaller body comparing to its weight with a jumbo jet. If you don't know the meaning of it it means the jumbo jet will become lighter on the water than this small plane. Remember a kilo cotton and a killo iron have the same weight. The cotton doesn't sink, but the iron does.
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: Swisaw Member since: Sep 24, 2010
  11. Swisaw

    Swisaw UKBF Ace Full Member

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    Ditching is a forced landing because of the lack of fuel. In other words you land without control. If Malaysian flight 370 had landed on the water it would have been a controlled landing and those were in charge knew what they had to do, possibly trained for it.
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: Swisaw Member since: Sep 24, 2010
  12. faradaykeynes

    faradaykeynes UKBF Ace Full Member - Verified Business

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    In above video pilot does not have much of a choice unfortunately due to lack of fuel, loss of height, no thrust and acute angle. Despite being shallow waters physics equation W=mg ripped the plane apart in reaction with water surface tension.

    M370 in middle of night ran out of fuel, no way pilot can see in dark for planned safe water landing and that in deep ocean, as deep water has more up thrust to show & with bigger Jet Mass and g constant W " weight" is bound to be higher, no way 777 jet would be lighter on water, its like saying blue whale will displace more water due to its mass but it would be lighter then Dolphin
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: faradaykeynes Member since: Apr 19, 2012
  13. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    The laws of physics are, of course, the same (albeit you've shown a complete disregard for those laws on some occasions) but the dynamics of the two landings are different. Having landed flat on the runway, the plane in your video is landing on the flat surface of a river and it has no underslung engines. Notwithstanding the small effect of the landing gear being down, it basically just slides off the runway and then slides across the water until brought to a halt.

    A 777 with underslung engines landing on the rough surface of the sea will react completely differently when it hits the water...

    John
     
    Last edited: Apr 15, 2014
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  14. The Byre

    The Byre UKBF Ace Free Member

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    I had a floater this morning! I always feel better after a good floater!

    BTW, don't any of you people have work to do?
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: The Byre Member since: Aug 13, 2013
  15. stockdam

    stockdam UKBF Ace Free Member

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    I haven't time to do the analysis but it looks like the survival rate would be below 70%, maybe 60%, if river and estuary ditchings are removed (no waves).

    http://www.conservapedia.com/Water_Ditching

    However these are forced ditchings. To suggest that people would deliberately ditch into the sea when there would be much safer options is ridiculous. It would be easier to fly to a military base and land safely if "navy seals" were involved.

    Anyway there is absolutely no credible evidence of any of the crazy scenarios proposed on this thread. Time will hopefully tell what occurred.
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: stockdam Member since: Jul 3, 2008
  16. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    Also bear in mind the aircraft type involved. For example, the Boeing Stratocruiser mentioned twice, as a propeller driven craft, had engines faired in to the wings. Underslung engines such as those on jet airliners will have an impact on the 'landing' and it's survivability.

    John
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  17. stockdam

    stockdam UKBF Ace Free Member

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    I don't really know whether one aircraft design would be better for ditching. It's not a key design feature and not something that airlines are interested in. The main point is that ditching is a last gasp decision. To imply that a "hijacker" would plan to take the huge risk of ditching in open seas when there are other much safer options is crazy.
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: stockdam Member since: Jul 3, 2008
  18. stockdam

    stockdam UKBF Ace Free Member

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    Is that meant to impress? That's a video of an aircraft over-shooting a runway into calm water. In no way is that similar to an aircraft ditching into an open ocean.

    Maybe the hijackers shot out a giant marshmallow which inflated on impact to the sea and cushioned the aircraft. All the hijackers also had an ample food supply until the submarine picked them up? Or they flew into the mouth of a giant whale?

    Silly? Well just a bit more silly than saying that anyone would deliberately ditch into open seas.
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: stockdam Member since: Jul 3, 2008
  19. johndon68

    johndon68 UKBF Big Shot Full Member - Verified Business

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    I completely agree and I've tried to tell that to Swisaw earlier in the thread to think otherwise is ludicrous...

    Perhaps I wasn't clear, I was agreeing with you, I was just adding that the type of aircraft would have an impact on the stats that you posted, the likelihood of survival is probably far less these days because of the design of current airliners. As a result average 60-70% survival rate from that site is likely to come down if airliners of the current design start ditching...

    John
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: johndon68 Member since: Nov 2, 2009
  20. Paul Brooke

    Paul Brooke Banned

    157 27
    To be honest I reckon that Swisaw doesn't believe a word he is saying either. But I bet he's having some fun with all these wind ups of his
     
    Posted: Apr 15, 2014 By: Paul Brooke Member since: Mar 8, 2011
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