Brexit negotiations
- Thread starter Scott-Copywriter
- Start date
T
The Byre
Nice of you to ask my opinion! My guess is as good as anybody else's - if that!
But here's a 'factoid' for you - the Weimar Republic is often blamed for the hyperinflation that ultimately caused the rise of Hitler, the Nazis and WW2.
BUT
Kaiser Willhelm had a great more to answer for than we realise! During his time in power, he not only started WW1, but he F'ed the whole economy. Between 1914 and 1918 inflation went from 10% to 15%. But the money supply increased nine-fold. Yes, you did read that correctly - NINE FOLD!
He and his flunkies were increasing the money supply by about 25% every year. That is what Western governments around the world are doing TODAY!
BUT
It took five years for that madness to reach the real economy. Wheelbarrows of money and all that madness happened in 1923 - five years later. It took a whole five years for stupidity to translate into a disaster!
The Weimer Republic got the blame for hyperinflation and they certainly did their bit to make it worse by printing even more money in repeated last-ditch attempts to rescue the situation. But the real source of the inflation was the increase of the money supply all those years earlier. It takes a long time for the bogus economy to affect the real economy in which we all live!
And let us never forget that Germany in the 1920's was the best educated and most affluent society in the world. This was a society that already had the welfare state with health insurance and universal education and all the social benefits that only came to the rest of Europe after WW2.
I have absolutely zero idea where this is going and I continue to work on this. But it sure does occupy me!
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Deleted member 59730
Would it surprise you to know that trade has been going on between the UK and Turkey for years? Would it surprise you that Turkey is not in the EU so is not affected by Brexit?
BMC moved its diesel engine plant to Turkey as far ago as 1966. They were imported back into the UK to power London taxis and most canal narrowboats. Its called international trade and we didn't need Brexit to do it.
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It did have a customs union with the EU which has been negatively affected by Brexit.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-brexit-eu-turkey-idUSKCN1RR128
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Darren_Ssc
It may also surprise some people that Transit production moved from Southampton to Turkey in 2012, aided with a loan of 80 million euro from the EU.
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So potentially more boom in equities, commodities, house prices and other such things until the printers money really settles into the economy and inflation goes mad.
Maybe they will create a new currency at the end of it too just like the republic did to partly resolve the issue.... So Bitcoin might no be a fad after all.......?!?!?!
It'll be interesting to see how it pans out, as most countries are printing as they have never printed before. Does that mean it will be better or worst than the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic, as it is not a country-specific issue but a global one. I guess we will see.
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T
The Byre
If it is worldwide then all hell breaks loose! Imagine a world in which ALL money is worthless. Euro, Pound, Dollar - all worthless! That would just leave the digital Yuan and the IMF's SDRs.
There are plans in the Fed's and the BoE's bottom drawer to pin their currencies to SDR (Special Drawing Rights) which, in and of itself, cannot act as a currency. These plans are still at the 'game-playing' stage, but who knows? It makes sort of sense!
There has been a rise in the use of Bitcoin in paying for stuff, but that is confined to just a few things like buying a car from Electric Jesus.
Bitcoin can never be a real currency as it has none of the tools attached to it of a real currency like a repo market and treasury bills. It's a currency when I can pay for stuff at Lidl with it - and that ain't gonna happen any time soon!
I have no idea what will happen to Bitcoin, but it seems to move in lock-step with the more crazy speculative shares, so probably nothing good! In other words, it is a speculative play and not a store of value.
Many leading economists are completely convinced that we are heading for a depression and stagflation.
Brits are rightly obsessed with house prices and simply because there are no other viable savings schemes that attract other benefits such as employer contributions, state contributions and tax-free status. At the upper end of the market, prices have fallen through the floor and some prestige objects are selling for less than half what the owners paid for them. At the end of our little lane, a £22m estate went for about £7m. Similar to luxury cars, these deals are always cash.
But for regular folks that have to have a mortgage, inflation could spell the end of the housing bonanza - but only if the BoE uses interest rates to control the yield curve.
Nowadays £300k only gets you a regular modest house and not even that in the SE of Englandshire. Assuming a 10% deposit and a 3% mortgage interest, that comes (with insurance) to £1,500 a month. But if we go back to more normal interest rates of 8%, that comes to £2,400. Ouch!
Not many people can shell-out £2,400 a month, so now that can only afford a £190k house - or more likely the £300k house has to come down to a more realistic £190k. A 36% price drop!
So we can extrapolate from that, that a 1% change in the cost of a mortgage leads to a 7% change in house prices! More ouch!
I'll be dead before this game is fully played out!
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love that nick name.. you have to admit though, he is a visionary. I'd pick him over the self appointed vaccine expert at some big tech company, the name slips my mind...
I genuinely don't think I could imagine a world like that. It would be like an end of world movie. Wow, what would it even look like - Mad Max would be my best guess.
Macro and technical fundamentals of money flow are truly FUBAR... My opinion is it will all topple down like a big deck of cards as you described OR the global debt will be swept under the carpet and kept there for an indefinite amount of time and come out during the next crisis.
I have not heard of an SDR before, I'll have to do some research.
Your point about the top end of the market is an important one... Arguably that's where fake value congregates (manor homes, sports cars, horses). It's only a matter of time before the trickle down theory takes on a new meaning.
I think the word 'Spicy' nicely sums up the current period of time.
Whatever happens, we are looking down the barrel of a gun.
Global pandemic forced an almost total shutdown of economies yet, commodities through the roof like we are living in the housing and building boom of the early 00's.
If you get some time, YouTube 'the market sniper'. He has some interesting views about it all
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According to the latest figures, the latest official EU figures for 2019: Out of a total UK population of 66,647,112, only 29,842 British citizens (0.04%) decided to opt for citizenship of an EU27 country.
I thought millions of remoaners planned to desert the UK and live in the EU, unable to face the future in a Brexit Britain? Surely they couldn’t have been telling porkies?
I thought millions of remoaners planned to desert the UK and live in the EU, unable to face the future in a Brexit Britain? Surely they couldn’t have been telling porkies?
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Deleted member 59730
There is a big difference between applying for citizenship and leaving the country.
Look at how many EU citizens in the UK have applied to remain here compared to the number applying for citizenship.
In France all you need for an application to live there are 5 utility bills. Citizenship is a lot harder to get.
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T
The Byre
The Bundesverwaltungsamt in Cologne has had far more applications for German citizenship than that. That's just Germany! Those are just the people who have relinquished UK citizenship. Most have applied for Rest-27 citizenship parallel to their present UK status without the UK knowing anything about it.
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T
The Byre
Nobody knows the true figures as literally hundreds of thousands of applications have gone into the Bundesverwaltungsamt (BVA) - so many that last year the address for applications for citizenship had to be given its own postcode!
It is taking the BVA four months just to open and file the applications from the UK and give applicants a case number!
More to the point, on the one hand, von der Leyen is threatening the invocation of Article 122 of the Treaty of Lisbon, in which the Commission may give itself the right to impound vaccinations heading to the UK - and on the other hand and in an off-the-scale bout of madness, 17 of the 27 EU states have suspended vaccinations in the mythical belief that they case blood-clots.
Not only is von der Leyen an MD and epidemiologist, but both the European Medicines Agency and the World Health Organization have said there is no evidence there is any link between the vaccine and blood clots and have urged countries to continue using it. For France, Germany and the others to delay vaccination of their populations is to play with fire!
Several economies within the EU are extremely weak and need to open up asap - if Spain, Portugal and Italy see their economies stumble and fall, the whole EU project is endangered. Germany may be economically healthy, but France and others are not!
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Deleted member 59730
The information seems to come from a far right Brexiteer think tank with no links to the EU data they quote.
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Deleted member 59730
To my own knowledge, from membership of a group in Central Brittany, well over a thousand British applications have been made for Carte Sejours. Multiply by the whole of Brittany and its probably approaching 100,000 from just one small part of France.
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This is what I said in 2018/19; Glad to see we agree.
If they fall and the EU project collapses, will it be better to inside or outside the EU at that moment?
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Interesting stats on the "benefits" of the Euro
Where would the UK be if we'd joined?
Full report
https://www.cep.eu/Studien/20_Jahre...pStudy_20_years_Euro_-_Winners_and_Losers.pdf
Press article
https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...zone-euro-gdp-recovery-germany-italy-fund-spt
Where would the UK be if we'd joined?
Full report
https://www.cep.eu/Studien/20_Jahre...pStudy_20_years_Euro_-_Winners_and_Losers.pdf
Press article
https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...zone-euro-gdp-recovery-germany-italy-fund-spt
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T
The Byre
I read the study with interest and it merely confirms what we all know - running deficits is a very bad idea!
The Euro is not and never was designed to allow countries to have public spending deficits or trade deficits. It was the dream of the architects of the Euro to make Italy etc. into modern and productive economies. The Southern countries tried their level best to hide their profligate spending and lack of productivity, but because they no longer could paper-over the cracks by devaluing their currencies, gross imbalances developed.
Where would Britain be? Probably pretty much where it is right now - screwed!
It never was a question of Brexit or C19 or Euro or any other major disaster, project, or decision. If you want to be a wealthy society and survive in the long run, you must adhere to basic principles, such as having a productive private sector and efficient government.
The UK has had falling productivity and a series of governments of eye-watering inefficiency and ever since 2008, has been playing the 'Get Out of Jail Free' card of QE. It's not just the headline disasters like £24bn on a failed IT project or £20bn on track-and-trace-and-try-to-forget, but the billions that are poured away every year, year-in, year-out by every department. 60,000 civil servants at the MoD alone - more than the army has front-line troops! And more generals than tanks!
The Brexit debate here and elsewhere confuses and conflates three separate entities - The Euro, the Commission and Europe itself.
The idea and ideals of free trade and free movement have been piggy-backed by the Euro and the Commission. The Euro was always a flawed project as long as states tried to hide their spending deficits.
The UK does not hide government waste - it prints its way out of it. That game cannot go on forever! The US is doing the same thing.
But it gets funkier! US Treasury Secretary Yellen announced a $1.1tn government bond buy-back, using the $1.6tn that it has deposited with the Fed. She will do this at $250bn a month - and that could lead to a shortage of collateral needed by the banks to counterbalance movements of money. This act of using T-Bills to counterbalance money movements and lending is called 'The Repo Market' and it was the refusal by banks to accept one another's credit notes that sent the world's entire banking system into stasis in 2008.
Everywhere I look, I see people in positions of power playing with fire.
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The Byre
That was announced already in December last year. It is part of Air Lingus' expansion plans for transatlantic flights. Manchester has capacity and slots, now that Thomas Cook collapsed. Two Airbus A321 long-range jets are on order and will be based in Manchester to fly to Boston, Orlando and NY.
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...because of what happened in 2008, they saw that they were not actually impacted by anything. The fire will burn under the homes of those who cannot afford to lose everything.
Billionaires are largely not impacted by anything like in 2008, unless they make mistakes or put their eggs in the wrong baskets. With diversified investment portfolios, across different countries, they can afford to watch a world burn, because it's not their world.
Yes, some have lost billions but most did not. There are more mega rich than ever before. 2008 was an important test, the result was that the poor/the workers were stuffed but the rich were not. Perfect. In the UK, no bankers were jailed, nobody was seriously investigated, same in the US. They'll just do exactly the same thing and it will impact them not a jot, the billionaires get fair warning of impending doom and move their money around or buy lots of land/property/gold/oil/diamonds, any port to weather a storm.
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Because they're anticipating a huge surge in demand in a few months. Cruise ships are being re-positioned, with some coming to UK ports - if the government won't allow cruises outside of UK waters, then they'll just operate them within UK waters. Thousands of people have money to spend on a holiday, a UK cruise might be enough if they cannot go anywhere else.
Not much to do with Brexit. It just makes sense, if you have 12 ships/aircraft, position a few in each of your busiest ports/airports in case they only allow domestic holidays in 2021.
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T
The Byre
One juicy story Brexiteers seem to have missed is the weekend police raid on Astra-Zeneca labs in Italy in the mistaken belief that 29 million doses of vaccine were being secretly shipped to the UK.
The raid was carried out by the NAS, an elite unit of the Carabinieri which is part of the armed forces and usually investigates criminal syndicates suspected of counterfeiting food, wine and medicines. Italian authorities ordered the raid after Thierry Breton, the EU's commissioner for the internal market, raised suspicions during a visit to an AstraZeneca factory in Leiden, the Netherlands, earlier this month.
The news of a hidden bumper cache of jabs destined for the UK was quickly picked up by newspapers across the Continent.
By mid-morning, however, the story began to unravel when the British Government stated that supplies from the Catalent factory "haven't been coming to the UK and we are not expecting anything from there".
Mario Gargiulo, the president of European biologics for Catalent, said the inspection by the Carabinieri had found "everything in order". Soon afterwards, officials in Brussels admitted that the 29 million doses were in fact destined for AstraZeneca's plant in Belgium for onward distribution around the EU and 'Covax' 3rd world countries.
The raid was carried out by the NAS, an elite unit of the Carabinieri which is part of the armed forces and usually investigates criminal syndicates suspected of counterfeiting food, wine and medicines. Italian authorities ordered the raid after Thierry Breton, the EU's commissioner for the internal market, raised suspicions during a visit to an AstraZeneca factory in Leiden, the Netherlands, earlier this month.
The news of a hidden bumper cache of jabs destined for the UK was quickly picked up by newspapers across the Continent.
By mid-morning, however, the story began to unravel when the British Government stated that supplies from the Catalent factory "haven't been coming to the UK and we are not expecting anything from there".
Mario Gargiulo, the president of European biologics for Catalent, said the inspection by the Carabinieri had found "everything in order". Soon afterwards, officials in Brussels admitted that the 29 million doses were in fact destined for AstraZeneca's plant in Belgium for onward distribution around the EU and 'Covax' 3rd world countries.
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Just another example of the EU not handling this vaccine rollout properly. Instead of accepting their mistakes, and trying to put them right, they simply lie and try to undermine the UK’s programme to make themselves feel better.
So glad we got out, my assertion that being independent and able to make fast decisions has been shown to be true. As time goes on yet more examples will come to light.
So glad we got out, my assertion that being independent and able to make fast decisions has been shown to be true. As time goes on yet more examples will come to light.
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I voted to remain, not because of the ability to live and work anywhere (although that was attractive) more so selfishly to protect my interests in the EU supply chain of which we benefit.
However, with the actions of our 'friends and partners' since the start of the year, I'm really starting to dislike the EU.
However, with the actions of our 'friends and partners' since the start of the year, I'm really starting to dislike the EU.
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Another example of a stupid businessman who did not seem to understand that when Johnson said there would be no non-tariff barriers to trade, he was, as usual, lying.
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r4cCtwWI6ceB4enulm9OxfdvEvLUndtBWYjpH1UEwNEZE
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...r4cCtwWI6ceB4enulm9OxfdvEvLUndtBWYjpH1UEwNEZE
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He was not lying that's just a simplistic comments you love to throw up every week as a dedicated labour supporter, the fact is if any company had looked at the EU's requirements for imports with the rest of the world, which is what we would be after Brexit, they would have understood the requirements likely to be faced. instead this person chose to do nothing so it has to be someone else's fault
What Tariff has the EU applied zero its just applied it's rules
What Tariff has the EU applied zero its just applied it's rules
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Once again, reducing any credibility there may have been to your argument, to precisely zilch.
Don’t you get bored repeating the same old cliches about what you want to think were the reasons people had for voting leave?
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