the UK is finished

[murdoch]

from Bloomberg-
Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said the “U.K. is finished” and investors should sell the currency.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia said there was a high risk of a cut to the country’s credit rating outlook and lowered its pound forecast. Prime Minister Gordon Brown authorized a 100 billion pound ($142 billion) bailout for banks.
“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” said Rogers. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.” Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

I don't rate Rogers predictions that highly (he seems more of a personality rather than a real expert, and he has made a few bad calls eg China stocks and Commodities have both now crashed despite him being bullish on them) although I know he has been right about some things), but........ I am getting worried that all the UK banks are going down the pan and that lending to SME businesses will be difficult.
Any thoughts?

[Simon-M]

Pretty riddiculous to single out the UK. What does he he think all the other countries are doing? This is GLOBAL as far as governments proping up their economies.

The £ is not the only currency sliding.

[directmarketingadvice]

Any thoughts?

The UK isn't 'finished' ... yet.

The government - you know, that guy we never chose to be PM - has made a colossal gamble and, if that doesn't pay off, the country will have two choices:

(a) Spend a generation or so paying for it.

or

(b) print money like mad, thus ruining everyone's savings and pensions and burning all overseas investors who bought UK govt bonds because they thought they could trust this country.

If I were an overseas investor, I wouldn't touch the pound, UK stocks, UK govt bonds or UK corp bonds with a bargepole.

Steve

[stugster]

Steve,

What about (c) Starting up the manufacturing industry again and not relying on the tertiary industries?


Bring back Glasgow's (in?)famous dockyards and ship building!

[murdoch]

Pretty riddiculous to single out the UK. What does he he think all the other countries are doing? This is GLOBAL as far as governments proping up their economies.

The £ is not the only currency sliding.


Well, in fact yesterday, Brussels has predicted that the UK would suffer the worst recession of any large European economy.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5549629.ece

[telemax]

from Bloomberg-
Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said the “U.K. is finished” and investors should sell the currency.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia said there was a high risk of a cut to the country’s credit rating outlook and lowered its pound forecast. Prime Minister Gordon Brown authorized a 100 billion pound ($142 billion) bailout for banks.
“I would urge you to sell any sterling you might have,” said Rogers. “It’s finished. I hate to say it, but I would not put any money in the U.K.” Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

I don't rate Rogers predictions that highly (he seems more of a personality rather than a real expert, and he has made a few bad calls eg China stocks and Commodities have both now crashed despite him being bullish on them) although I know he has been right about some things), but........ I am getting worried that all the UK banks are going down the pan and that lending to SME businesses will be difficult.
Any thoughts?

The guy is a total idiot, for even saying that publiclly

[KM-Tiger]

What about (c) Starting up the manufacturing industry again and not relying on the tertiary industries?

There is a resounding silence on this from all our politicians.

Borrowing more money from the Far East to buy more imports from the Far East doesn't grow the economy, it grows a debt bubble.

We cannot beat the Far East at mass production, and would be foolish to try, so what is it that we can do?

[Simon-M]

Well, in fact yesterday, Brussels has predicted that the UK would suffer the worst recession of any large European economy.
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article5549629.ece

We all know we have a recession. We all know it's going to get worse before it gets better. This does not mean that all the developed countries in the world are not in trouble. To single out the UK and say it is worthless when all around us are in similar situations is just stupid. Even if we get it worse than everyone else it does not mean that everyone else is scot free.

[borischarlton]

If you misted it have a listen to this http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00gqgt3/Today_20_01_2009/

listen from 2 hours 41 minutes and 30 seconds

This does not look good. Also its the first time I have heard that the U.K. is NOT in the same situation as the rest of the world but worse.

Rob

[murdoch]

We cannot beat the Far East at mass production, and would be foolish to try, so what is it that we can do?

i guess we can innovate?

[wood1e2]

Sterling was over valued, so he should have said that about 18 months ago. Ok so sterling has fallen further, but if you look at the value it should have been it has any fallen half of what it actually has.

In other words it will not recover to $2 as that was the inflated value, so somewhere between now and $2 maybe the rrecovered value.

Just a thought I am no expert... :)

[consultant]

that guy we never chose to be PM

I love it when people say this. It shows how many people do not know how it works in the UK.

To clarify, you vote for a party at general elections, not the leader. This isnt the US, you know!

[An Oasis]

If you misted it have a listen to this http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00gqgt3/Today_20_01_2009/

listen from 2 hours 41 minutes and 30 seconds

This does not look good. Also its the first time I have heard that the U.K. is NOT in the same situation as the rest of the world but worse.

Rob

Ouch...if the markets are right that's brutal!

[KM-Tiger]

We do know how it works in the UK.

But it doesn't follow that we like it!

[wood1e2]

lol..love it... People said this time it going to be better..An end to boom and bust!!!

unfortunatly with the birth of professional politicians there will never be a 'new way' as the leader is now all powerful and if you want to shack up with a better secretary you need to brown nose your leader...

Along will the plebs freedom, so the "free thinking lets do something better for the country rather than trying to get myself promotion or get re-elected politicians"

In that sense it has become like America whose politicians are continually on the campaign trail.

[RobertG]

This is like Corporal Jones in Dad`s Army running around in circles shouting `Don`t Panic...Don`t Panic`.

The UK is far from finished In fact we are all in the same economic boat, we are still afloat and if we all steer together will soon be in port again.

I am involved with very large inward investment into the UK from the US, Europe and the Middle East.

There are plenty of opportunities out there if we look forward and outward. Maybe if the media balance some of the doom with some positive news which is there the picture would not be so black and confidence can be raised.

[wood1e2]

If you misted it have a listen to this http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b00gqgt3/Today_20_01_2009/

listen from 2 hours 41 minutes and 30 seconds

This does not look good. Also its the first time I have heard that the U.K. is NOT in the same situation as the rest of the world but worse.

Rob

Well a ratings company has downgraded Spain..which is in a horrible position and the politicians are up in arms.

Also remember this, who rated 'sub prime mortgages' CDO's and CDOSquared, as good investments?

Yes that's right the ratings companies!!! Who paid them?

The finance institutions selling the above mentioned financial products

So if the rumour is right who is behind it, then you might find why they believe the UK may be heading for a nightmare!!

[thebigIAM]

You're supposed to vote for a party at general elections and not the leader.

People don't always do what they're supposed to do, do they?

I read an article recently by Will Hutton who claimed Britain was "heading for bankruptcy". Hm. Okay... Then he went on to more or less say, if only the UK had joined the Euro, then things wouldn't be quite so bad.

Say what? I wet myself laughing.

[directmarketingadvice]

I love it when people say this. It shows how many people do not know how it works in the UK.

To clarify, you vote for a party at general elections, not the leader. This isnt the US, you know!

I know how things work over here, so spare me your condescending remarks.

We vote for a party that presents a manifesto. Now, where in the Labour manifesto was the bit where they said they'd gamble the whole economy if we entered a recession?

Steve

[Simon-M]

I know how things work over here, so spare me your condescending remarks.

We vote for a party that presents a manifesto. Now, where in the Labour manifesto was the bit where they said they'd gamble the whole economy if we entered a recession?

Steve

Be fair Steve. They have no need to discuss recession because Brown has abolished "boom and bust".

[directmarketingadvice]

Be fair Steve. They have no need to discuss recession because Brown has abolished "boom and bust".

Yes, no more recessions... now we just go straight from boom to depression...

Steve

[cycloneuk]

Thanks for the heads up, best set my emigration plans in motion.

[dataferret]

People have very short memories. The conservatives ran this country into the ground when they were in power resulting in the recession of the 1990's. If it was not nailed down they flogged it and we are seeing the impact almost two decades later as the results of their lazy policies filter down into society.

I am not saying Labour have done a better job but to his credit Gordon Brown has got the price of fuel down, is hammering at the energy companies to reduce prices and has lowered interest rates.

Tory boy Cameron on the other hand has no firm policies and he changes position quicker than you can blink. He is an opportunist and a headliner. Certainly there is a risk he will protect those with plenty of cash at the expense of those with very little money.

The UK will certainly be finished if our politicians do not stop bickering and feathering their own nests. They need to concentrate on policies which invest in Britain such as supporting small businesses, Grants for new start-ups, lowering business rates on premises and investing in manufacturing.

I find it incredible when successive Governments claim to have no money to help small firms but they can manage to find £billions to start a war or bail out big employers who should be left to go bust.

The UK will be finished unless they support small firms with practical resources and not more red tape and talk.

*rant over *

[cycloneuk]

They also manage to find millions to donate to other countries, while i'm not against that when the economy is in good shape, at the moment it is plain wrong, why should we pay for the destruction Israel caused, they need to help our own country before helping others.

[Afaia]

I don't know much about economics but I do know the UK is not the only country with problems.

Here in Greece we are paying the price of the massaging of figures that went on so the country could join the euro zone when it really did not meet the criteria. They are now talking about pulling out and one external agency has recently rated Greece's economy on the same level as many African countries (and not oil or diamond rich ones!)

I don't think the UK is at that level yet?

Things may be bad but there are a lot of things going for Britain that the rest of the world envies. There is huge freedom there and lack of bureaocracy compared to many countries for a start. And, no matter what grumbles people have about British education, it still provides a better background for creativity and innovation than most.

The UK is not 'finished' in any long-term sense. There may be problems for a few years and it may be changing, but that does not mean that it won't eventually be back as good as ever and maybe better.

Why do the British media insist on continually running the country down and publicising all the negative things?

[FireFleur]

I love it when people say this. It shows how many people do not know how it works in the UK.

To clarify, you vote for a party at general elections, not the leader. This isnt the US, you know!

I love it when people say this :)

You don't vote for a party you vote for a candidate in a constituency :)

So, which constituency do we have to blame? Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, I think it is :)

[Write My Site]

The UK manufacturing industry has been in trouble for a long time. My father has spent his whole career running factories - mainly in the car industry - and even when the economy was strong, he was doing well to squeeze £50k profit out of £15 million turnover. With his current factory - where he has worked for 15 years - customers (i.e. car companies) are reducing/ cancelling their orders and the factory is losing money every day. Next week he has to tell 150 people they're out of a job because the factory is relocating to Eastern Europe. Worst of all, this isn't an isolated case - it's happening to just about every company in the industry.


Steve,

What about (c) Starting up the manufacturing industry again and not relying on the tertiary industries?


Bring back Glasgow's (in?)famous dockyards and ship building!

[directmarketingadvice]

I love it when people say this :)

You don't vote for a party you vote for a candidate in a constituency :)

So, which constituency do we have to blame? Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, I think it is :)

Dunfermline East.

(and Edinburgh South West if you want to blame Darling)

Steve

[FireFleur]

I am noticing a pattern here, where are all those places :)

K & C had their chance in 2005, but yes DE was the first to usher someone in.

K&C is so small as well, created for the 2005 election, I wonder why?

[The Pines]

Maybe if the media balance some of the doom with some positive news which is there the picture would not be so black and confidence can be raised.


Unfortunately that doesn't sell newspapers. Who wants to read any GOOD news???

Pick up the Daily Wail any day of the week. There are only three topics they consistently run...

Immigrants
Redunancies
Property Price Crash

Today's headline is

"Polish immigrants property empire crash causes mass redundancies"

Exclusive!!!
Page 1 - They come over here, take our jobs, take our women, etc

Page 2 - Will all our houses be repossessed?

Page 3 - Here's a picture of a dog who got his testicles trapped in an industrial cheese grater

Page 4 - Who's the bigger cnut - Robert Mugabe, Tony Blair, Gordon Brown or Michael Barrymore? You decide...

[Faith28]

Unfortunately that doesn't sell newspapers. Who wants to read any GOOD news???



*hand shoots up*

[directmarketingadvice]

I saw this link today: the CIA's ranking of countries by Current Account Balance, we're 186th... out of 188

By contrast, Germany are 2nd.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

Steve

[chris nangle furniture]

People have very short memories. The conservatives ran this country into the ground when they were in power resulting in the recession of the 1990's. If it was not nailed down they flogged it and we are seeing the impact almost two decades later as the results of their lazy policies filter down into society.

I am not saying Labour have done a better job but to his credit Gordon Brown has got the price of fuel down, is hammering at the energy companies to reduce prices and has lowered interest rates.

Tory boy Cameron on the other hand has no firm policies and he changes position quicker than you can blink. He is an opportunist and a headliner. Certainly there is a risk he will protect those with plenty of cash at the expense of those with very little money.

The UK will certainly be finished if our politicians do not stop bickering and feathering their own nests. They need to concentrate on policies which invest in Britain such as supporting small businesses, Grants for new start-ups, lowering business rates on premises and investing in manufacturing.

I find it incredible when successive Governments claim to have no money to help small firms but they can manage to find £billions to start a war or bail out big employers who should be left to go bust.

The UK will be finished unless they support small firms with practical resources and not more red tape and talk.

*rant over *

spot on mate I could not have put it better

[KM-Tiger]

...... but to his credit Gordon Brown has got the price of fuel down

Really? Nothing to do with global market forces then?

[Cornish Steve]

I saw this link today: the CIA's ranking of countries by Current Account Balance, we're 186th... out of 188

By contrast, Germany are 2nd.

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2187rank.html

Steve
Current account balances can be very deceiving. If a company strived for a strong account balance, it probably would never grow. The history of economies show that, when used diligently, debt is good.

The issue I have is with how money is spent. Are we investing in education? No, and we should be terrified at the focus Indians and Chinese put on education. Are we investing in small business, where 99% of growth comes from? No, and we're crippling small business with stupid regulations. Are we investing in scientific research? No, and other countries are coming out with most new technologies. Instead, we're squandering our resources on social experiments and on unproductive government programs. It's the combination of a poor account balance and the lack of investment in the future that concerns me.

It's pointless trying to return to the days of high manufacturing presence because government regulations force high costs on our own companies. The only way to prevent products from countries with lower costs from winning out is to put up trade barriers, and that kills economies more than anything. We should be looking to the future, growing industries where we are strong, cutting support for industries that are weak, and retraining the workforce to cope with the new reality. Successful companies feed strength and starve weakness. Government, on the other hand, seems willing to poor large sums into areas of weakness, and that's not going to help.

Of course, in my humble opinion. :)

[Dawg]

Really? Nothing to do with global market forces then?

Get a grip KM-T. Market forces are sooo last year.

[Cornish Steve]

Really? Nothing to do with global market forces then?
Fuel prices in the US have fallen by 70% in the last four months. By what percentage has Mr. Brown managed to reduce the price of petrol? Much less. Why? Because of the stupendously high tax levied on fuel in our country.

[An Oasis]

I am not saying Labour have done a better job but to his credit Gordon Brown has got the price of fuel down, is hammering at the energy companies to reduce prices and has lowered interest rates.

Oh no Billy Bob Brown has failed to get any of them to do anything.

Tory boy Cameron on the other hand has no firm policies and he changes position quicker than you can blink. He is an opportunist and a headliner. Certainly there is a risk he will protect those with plenty of cash at the expense of those with very little money.

Can't disagree with you there.

The political system that we have now is hopeless, however, if we got it scrapped and had local independents standing...now that would be interesting. They don't perform they are kicked out. Excellent politicians would stay in power for life, until they were found in the outhouse with a sheep.

[MartCactus]

Fuel prices in the US have fallen by 70% in the last four months. By what percentage has Mr. Brown managed to reduce the price of petrol? Much less. Why? Because of the stupendously high tax levied on fuel in our country.

Thats only part of the reason.

The oil price is set in US dollars.

The pound has collapsed in value - last year it touched 2.10 dollars to each pound. Now it stands under 1.40. So last year each dollar of oil cost 48p. Now it costs 71p or thereabouts.

[Sphinx]

DOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMM!!!!!!


I love these doom threads :p

[BeautyScientist]

We cannot beat the Far East at mass production, and would be foolish to try, so what is it that we can do?

Why can't we beat the Far East at mass production?

I am seriously thinking of having a go at precisely that.

[Cornish Steve]

Why can't we beat the Far East at mass production?

I am seriously thinking of having a go at precisely that.
Six years ago, I worked with a local clothing manufacturer to try to find a way to turn them around (there are Turn-around Management organizations in the US, and they can be quite ruthless). We came up with a plan, but it mostly entailed outsourcing.

The bottom line was stated by the company owner (great-grandson of the company founder) when they shut down a few months later. While not his exact words, they were something like: "Before I consider anything else, my overhead cost per item is $x.xx an hour. That includes minimum wage, holiday entitlements, sick leave, medical insurance, and various other government-imposed entitlements and taxes. This doesn't include my cost for buildings, equipment, raw materials, marketing, selling, operations, etc. - just the cost of having employees. My competitors can produce items for less than that overhead cost. End of story. There's nothing else to say."

Until or unless the government chooses to throw away 90% of its regulations and end its experiments with social ideology (e.g., minimum wage), the manufacturing industry is a thing of the past. The only exceptions are for specialised goods or perishable goods. We're living in a new world. Manufacturing jobs that have been lost in Britain are not coming back.

[Anhalo]

This is tactical corporate sabotage at it's finest...

1) Tell the UK consumers that the UK is finished.

2) They all panic more.

3) They try to save their money by not buying as much.

4) The situation for the UK corporate scene actually DOES get worse because people told people it would, scaring them into not spending their money damaging business with a knock on effect as then the unemployed can spend even less money...


The best way to counter this is to ignore it was ever said...

[Foremost]

The IMF have said the UK will be the worst performing out of all the major economies this year, and thats because of the way the government are trying to handle the problem with Quantitive Easing. I agree that the UK economy and therfore Sterling will perform worse than other currencies throughout '09

[dingbat]

Rogers correctly predicted the start of the commodities rally in 1999.

And how many predictions has he made that weren't correct? Even Derek Acorah gets it right sometimes.