Hit Rate Stats for a New Business

[macdebbie]

I am in a marketing class, and need to put together a business plan for the class. I have chosen to do my plan on on-line pet supply websites that sell food and other pet products - vitamins, clothes, beds, collars, carriers, toys, treats.

We are working on Sales Forecasts right now, and I am having a hard time finding data on internet businesses specifically.

What I need to "guesstimate" is the number of new customers a site such as this could reasonably assume each month for the first year in business. Then what factors might reflect changes for year 2 and year 3.

I understand of course that it depends on how much and how you market your site! But I need to start somewhere. I checked the Internet Retailers Assn, and all I could find was hits per month for the giant pet sites - well over a million a month, which I know is not realistic for a small new site.

Can anyone help me?:eek:

[alanc]

Have you tried approaching some retailers directly? They may not want to give out this information on a public forum. And yes, it is going to depend on how much marketing they do.

I don't know if this is any help, but a web designer friend said that it took about 2 years for a new e-commerce website to show real growth and profit. This matches my own experience.

[macdebbie]

Yes, I have tried contacting e-commerce retailers directly, and they will not speak to me.

I don't need anyone's specific #s, I just need an "average" and growth rate assumptions so I can do the speadsheet.

For example, I need to be able to say Year 1, there were 10K hits a month, which converted at 2%. Or is that too high? I also need to show progression monthly - is 10% growth out of line for a new e-commerce business?

How would the growth assumptions change in Year 2? Flatten out? Get better?

Again, I don't need anyone's specific sales #s, I just need to know what a realistic assumption is for hits, conversion rate and growth rate.

I'm hoping someone can help.

[macdebbie]

if you don't want to post here.

[alanc]

0.5% conversion is typical for the first year. I'm not selling 'household' & frequent repeat-business items, like pet food, so the rest of my figures won't be much help.

[macdebbie]

That's very helpful.

Anyone else? Hit rate 10K a month realistic year one?