Modelling an Business based on EPCs

[jklondon]

Does anyone have any experience in financially modelling the returns from a site based on EPCs (Earnings Per Click)? Someone suggested using Monte Carlo to model the probabilities of impressions to conversions..

Any help appreciated guys - there must be someone out there who has done this.

JK

[Jayne]

Not me...but it was nice you explained what you ment and I understood it all for a change :D

Jayne

[Cornish Steve]

Does anyone have any experience in financially modelling the returns from a site based on EPCs (Earnings Per Click)? Someone suggested using Monte Carlo to model the probabilities of impressions to conversions..

Any help appreciated guys - there must be someone out there who has done this.

JK

Those were the days! My PhD in physics involved computer modeling of systems using the Monte Carlo method of integration. It uses random numbers and probabilities to predict the behaviour of complex systems. I've read that it's used now in statistics courses, but it requires advanced maths to understand it.

Maybe there are programs that will hide you from the mathematical underpinnings so you can just plug in data and see the results. No matter how sophisticated the method may be, it's still subject to the age-old rule: garbage in, garbage out. To be meaningful, your input data must be credible.

Personally, I would look at more simple approaches first before progressing to such a complex method.

[jklondon]

ok ok - guessing I was shooting a bit high there - anyway maybe I will do a full write and post a spreadsheet to give people an idea - goldctrsteve as you indicated there are ways to hide a lot of the complexity (but you still need to understand it to some extent).